Normandy Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Think there is a pretty good shot this takes the name Isaac from 94L this afternoon or evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Think there is a pretty good shot this takes the name Isaac from 94L this afternoon or evening Surface obs from Tampico and Poza Rica, plus vis loop, hint at a possible closed low, though a bit elongated from NE to SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Yep it is stretched out, but has lots of water to work with since itll probably drift NNE initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Nicole Mitchell updated her first book status about an hour ago. She is flying 95L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Can't believe after a great weekend in Corpus a certain someone was all excited yesterday about 94l and then sent me a followup text about this budding system. Imagine my surprise when checking things late last night. Troubling actions by some of the hardcore crew this last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Troubling actions by some of the hardcore crew this last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 If this is how it's going to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 You'll be sorry when one of these develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Troubling actions by some of the hardcore crew this last week. Clearly he is looking for any excuse to get back to Texas... You'll be sorry when one of these develops. So have you made plans for a late September trip?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Clearly he is looking for any excuse to get back to Texas... So have you made plans for a late September trip to Pensacola?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 For what its worth, recon is in the air. I don't see much evidence of a well defined surface circulation, but deep convection continues to fester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 It almost has a suspicious look on the SW end. Pretty much the classic tail end of the cold front look. Really gonna hate this system if it buries itself in MX again. Isaac would be a horrible name to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Move along, nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Move along, nothing to see here. I does have West winds. I have been checking old obs, not really trying to fix a center, because of winds under 15 knots and a 1011 mb pressure, but it is sort of kind of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I does have West winds. I have been checking old obs, not really trying to fix a center, because of winds under 15 knots and a 1011 mb pressure, but it is sort of kind of something. Wouldn't it naturally have west winds due to its frontal nature? I thought easterly winds would be more indicative of a closed low in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I does have West winds. I have been checking old obs, not really trying to fix a center, because of winds under 15 knots and a 1011 mb pressure, but it is sort of kind of something. Broad, stretched low, with several vortices and a main one over or near the coast just N of Tampico, I suspect. Convection is thinning once again....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Wouldn't it naturally have west winds due to its frontal nature? I thought easterly winds would be more indicative of a closed low in this case. Too bad I can't see the analyzed conditions further South, but judging from the dewpoint gradient, the front is hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Brownsville radar suggests an interesting mid-level circulation has developed off to the WSW, although this is displaced from the surface circulation depicted by recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Brownsville radar suggests an interesting mid-level circulation has developed off to the WSW ESE, although this is displaced from the surface circulation depicted by recon. I think you meant ESE, since WSW would be close to me . The downside of that location is that shear is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 NHC updated their disco at 520 UPDATED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND HAS ALSO DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I think you meant ESE, since WSW would be close to me . The downside of that location is that shear is worse. Whoops, I have issues with my cardinal directions sometimes. The location, while under higher shear, would probably keep the system over water for longer and its location closer to the mid-level trough will allow it to drift slightly more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Naked swirl visible on IR ... even on BRO radar the circulation is visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This diurnal cycle for so long is getting old ... convection is pretty strong, and the surface trough looks sharper today...this is the last chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This diurnal cycle for so long is getting old ... convection is pretty strong, and the surface trough looks sharper today...this is the last chance. I don't see this happening... dry air has completely infiltrated the circulation after the fropa occurred yesterday. I'd say its unlikely this can become a TC before landfall, and the NHC generally seems to agree, canceling the mission into this system. The biggest threat anyway of course would be heavy rainfall, which is likely to add insult to injury after the rains from Helene last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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