Wild Weather Monger Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Anything going on with the remnants of Helene? Can't help but notice the big blow up offshore this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al952012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208191734 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012 AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 The FIM-GFS EnKF (ensemble Kalman Filter) is experimental, but if it's correct it would be a big coup for that piece of guidance. About 2/3 of the members have at least a TS in the western or central Gulf by Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al952012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208191734 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012 AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, So this appears to be a totally new system entirely. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 We have a lemon on 95L. 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 This was actually the system both the GFS and ECMWF have been forecasting for the past week or so. Some of this is the mid-level remains of Helene but the low level vorticity is new, so it should get a new name if designated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Nothing like a good home brew when the MDR is being stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Yuck I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- AMENDED -- SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS. 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES 22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z. 4. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO -- ADDED -- FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 -- A. 20/1900Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST C. 20/1630Z D. 23.0N 96.5W E. 20/1830Z TO 21/0000Z F. SFC TO 10,000FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 This discussion needs to be split off from the Helene thread since it is technically a different system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Nothing like a good home brew when the MDR is being stubborn. Totally. We all fixate on the MDR, but homebrews are occasionally mega-awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Me likey so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 This better not waste the name Isaac... Already a decent mid-level spin with some slight rotation on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 This discussion needs to be split off from the Helene thread since it is technically a different system. Agree its time for a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I like Joyce too though, one of those old-school, angry female names... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Please merge/edit accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Brownsville radar indicates that sustained deep convection around what was a weak mid-level circulation center has collapsed. Still some residual cold cloud tops, but not much more than remnant anvil coulds at this point. Could just be the diurnal min, guess we'll find out tonight. 95L will probably have a much better chance of becoming a named system if new convection re-fires further from the coast, even if just by 100 km or so, as land-breeze/sea-breeze can disrupt a young LLC very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Me likey so far... Yeah, it definitely looks like something is happening there. I like Joyce too though, one of those old-school, angry female names... Nut. Brownsville radar indicates that sustained deep convection around what was a weak mid-level circulation center has collapsed. Still some residual cold cloud tops, but not much more than remnant anvil coulds at this point. Could just be the diurnal min, guess we'll find out tonight. 95L will probably have a much better chance of becoming a named system if new convection re-fires further from the coast, even if just by 100 km or so, as land-breeze/sea-breeze can disrupt a young LLC very easily. Yeah, I'm hoping it's just a dmin thing, and it'll fire up again tonight. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Nut. You know, like Camille, Wilma, Audrey, Connie, Janet, Donna, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 You know, like Camille, Wilma, Audrey, Connie, Janet, Donna, etc. Oh, I know what you meant. There's also Hazel, Carla, and Beulah. Back on topic... I wonder if 95L is going to get some dmax lovin' tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Beulah was a badass name... Carla's a hot name (usually, at least from my experience) It is certainly over some serious SSTs in the western Gulf/BoC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Beulah was a badass name... Carla's a hot name (usually, at least from my experience) It is certainly over some serious SSTs in the western Gulf/BoC right now. You're totally right, look at this sexy beast named Carla right here. The picture is a little vintage, but still she's one fine beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Convection is pretty much gone, but it enables you to see the swirl pretty clearly centered around 23.5N, 97W. Will be interested to see if the convection flares back up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aljareer Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 hi . Vorticity & wind & velovity at 700 hPa - . ECMWF 12Z . 20 AUG 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aljareer Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Tropical cyclone activity in ECMWF MODEL 12Z 19 aug 2012 : forecast : Between 168-216 hr ( 26 aug to 28 aug ) . tropical storm map : probability Between ( 5 % to 10 % ) = low probability . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 The FIM-GFS EnKF (ensemble Kalman Filter) is experimental, but if it's correct it would be a big coup for that piece of guidance. About 2/3 of the members have at least a TS in the western or central Gulf by Wed. Do you know where you are able to get access to these type of images. I've been searching for a while, but I haven't come across the right site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Do you know where you are able to get access to these type of images. I've been searching for a while, but I haven't come across the right site. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/ens/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 http://www.esrl.noaa...ts/gfsenkf/ens/ Thanks. It looks like the run that was posted was from 18z yesterday. Most of the members have backed off those pretty bullish solutions. The GFS does show the mid-level vortex pretty well, but it seems to be displaced eastward of the low-level vortex. Right now 95L is at a crossroads in its forecast. If the storm can develop more deep convection this morning and become a more vertically deep circulation, it might be able to get some distance away from the Mexican coastline as the flow should still be southerly in the mid-levels and a stronger vortex would be able to drift to the NE. However, if the system remains poorly organized as it does now, it will probably continue to meander near the coastline. Beyond 24 hours, the door will close and the mid-level ridge should rebuild over the disturbance, at which a westerly track should resume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Tropical cyclone activity in ECMWF MODEL 12Z 19 aug 2012 : forecast : Between 168-216 hr ( 26 aug to 28 aug ) . tropical storm map : probability Between ( 5 % to 10 % ) = low probability . That may not be entirely relavent to 95L. The Seasonal Euro cyclone probabilities in the 94L thread may not have been entirely relevat to 94L, for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Up to 30% for the mess of the Mexican Gulf Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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