Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 That sure is a pretty sharp cutoff in the precip. Hardly no rain at all in Extreme NW GA and not much in Birmingham either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 0z GFS is the most ominous model run for a post-landfall tropical system since Hurricane Frances in 2004... It stalls Isaac out maybe 40-50 miles inland and then it stalls out for a second time at the base of the Southern Appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Does the 0z GFS have the center tracking near Columbus to near Atlanta ? I'm wondering, because I thought the heaviest rainfall is usually along and just to the east of the center. And according to that map, the heaviest rain would be from Columbus to Atlanta and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 0z GFS is the most ominous model run for a post-landfall tropical system since Hurricane Frances in 2004... It stalls Isaac out maybe 40-50 miles inland and then it stalls out for a second time at the base of the Southern Appalachians Not to mention...I mean I know Georgia needs the rain but pretty much all of NC is saturated already. This wouldn't be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Dang, I usually don't get weather porn spasms like these until the long range Goofys out at 200 in Jan. I have to say one of my favorite weather events was Alberto stalling out back in 94. It was destructive rain, for sure, but man, oh, man, what an experience. Raining so hard you couldn't breathe. Better make sure your shingles are all down good. And if you built in a flood plain, find shelter now! A stalled out rain machine will blow even jaded minds. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Does the 0z GFS have the center tracking near Columbus to near Atlanta ? I'm wondering, because I thought the heaviest rainfall is usually along and just to the east of the center. And according to that map, the heaviest rain would be from Columbus to Atlanta and points east. I wrote this in 2005: I've found 14 tropical cyclones that have produced 5"+ rain in ATL since 1879: -Seven of the 14 were in JUL, two in AUG, three in SEP, and two in OCT - The most common single landfall area for the 14 was Ft. Walton Beach/Destin (FIVE of the 14). TWELVE of the 14 were Gulf coast hitters (range C LA to Panama City) while TWO were east coast hitters (including Jeanne from 9/2004.) - Most (ELEVEN) were moving NNE, NE or ENE. One was moving N, one NNW and one WNW. - Closest approach of center to ATL for the 14: - FOUR very close to ATL - ONE extreme NW GA - ONE Chattanooga - THREE NE AL - ONE SW AL (Dennis of 7/2005 in a very unusual location) - TWO Macon - TWO S GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Got a 13.90'' bulls eye close to Union,SC this run. Kinda fun watching the totals come in with these runs,big rains possible where ever it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I wrote this in 2005: I've found 14 tropical cyclones that have produced 5"+ rain in ATL since 1879: -Seven of the 14 were in JUL, two in AUG, three in SEP, and two in OCT - The most common single landfall area for the 14 was Ft. Walton Beach/Destin (FIVE of the 14). TWELVE of the 14 were Gulf coast hitters (range C LA to Panama City) while TWO were east coast hitters (including Jeanne from 9/2004.) - Most (ELEVEN) were moving NNE, NE or ENE. One was moving N, one NNW and one WNW. - Closest approach of center to ATL for the 14: - FOUR very close to ATL - ONE extreme NW GA - ONE Chattanooga - THREE NE AL - ONE SW AL (Dennis of 7/2005 in a very unusual location) - TWO Macon - TWO S GA Great, great post Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Dang, I usually don't get weather porn spasms like these until the long range Goofys out at 200 in Jan. I have to say one of my favorite weather events was Alberto stalling out back in 94. It was destructive rain, for sure, but man, oh, man, what an experience. Raining so hard you couldn't breathe. Better make sure your shingles are all down good. And if you built in a flood plain, find shelter now! A stalled out rain machine will blow even jaded minds. T In 24 hours you could go from, The Hero of the Mole to tar, feathers and pitchforks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 According to the 0z GFS, we need to start building boats. What Georgia drought? That would be something if this verified. No rain in central Florida at all lol quite the shaft. Only half an inch here. Storm is much larger than that and would produce much more widespread heavy rains rather than just near the center. Also we don't need any more rain. Almost 9 inches for the month. Literally has rained everyday until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Dang, I usually don't get weather porn spasms like these until the long range Goofys out at 200 in Jan. I have to say one of my favorite weather events was Alberto stalling out back in 94. It was destructive rain, for sure, but man, oh, man, what an experience. Raining so hard you couldn't breathe. Better make sure your shingles are all down good. And if you built in a flood plain, find shelter now! A stalled out rain machine will blow even jaded minds. T I got stuck in Griffin, GA during Alberto. I was at my Great Aunt's house, she lived on a private pond. They closed the road in front of her house because the lake was running over the road. Never have seen anything like it in all my life. I call all those precip maps... a water bomb. I will believe it when I see it. As Lookout noted this afternoon... those models always under do the amount of moisture that actually falls, so we might all need Jon boats before its over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 In 24 hours you could go from, The Hero of the Mole to tar, feathers and pitchforks. Lol, I've been thinking about that, but I've already admitted to loving an event that dropped maybe 16 to 20 inches in a few days, and floated coffins right out of the ground. I'm obviously deranged, and can't be held responsible Still, if anyone believes that the moles will cause a disaster, I'll pull the mojo... probably would only mean 4 to 6 inches at this point....full mole, I shudder to think.... If it were a snowacane, I'd make the blind guys much bigger, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I got stuck in Griffin, GA during Alberto. I was at my Great Aunt's house, she lived on a private pond. They closed the road in front of her house because the lake was running over the road. Never have seen anything like it in all my life. I call all those precip maps... a water bomb. I will believe it when I see it. As Lookout noted this afternoon... those models always under do the amount of moisture that actually falls, so we might all need Jon boats before its over with. The thing I'll always remember was the rooster tail out at the reservour. A two foot spill way was throwing water 70' in the air. I say that because the water was over the tops of the pines on the bank, so you could get a good measure. Glad her pond didn't come get ya'll I'm on high ground where I am now, with the creek 500 feet away. My neighbor said the little 1 foot trickle was raging in the middle, and 80 feet wide as it passed his back line. Yeah, a storm like that, stalling for days like that, won't occur too often, I wouldn't think. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 0z EURO has a landfall in Pensacola at 96 and moving very slowly inland by 120...very close to the 0z GFS. Again...only difference post-landfall is a continued Northwest movement...something that is very against Climo for late August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 It's like watching them converge before a snow fall. Wonder how Cuba will stir the pot? I think the landfall stats Larry posted are most interesting for Ga. Could be we'll see some rain in here soon, lol, and more than a little. Still, I can't hold my breath 'til after the weekend, and hurricanes go where they decide to go. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 06Z GFS very similar to 00Z with the on-shore path and rainfall: However, it has the remnant low drifting over TN and to the NW after reaching the southern Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm getting about 2 inches of additional rain from that run (around 9-10 inches) the 00z run it was around 7.80 inches. Either way, it looks like we'll get raked real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I wrote this in 2005: I've found 14 tropical cyclones that have produced 5"+ rain in ATL since 1879: -Seven of the 14 were in JUL, two in AUG, three in SEP, and two in OCT - The most common single landfall area for the 14 was Ft. Walton Beach/Destin (FIVE of the 14). TWELVE of the 14 were Gulf coast hitters (range C LA to Panama City) while TWO were east coast hitters (including Jeanne from 9/2004.) - Most (ELEVEN) were moving NNE, NE or ENE. One was moving N, one NNW and one WNW. - Closest approach of center to ATL for the 14: - FOUR very close to ATL - ONE extreme NW GA - ONE Chattanooga - THREE NE AL - ONE SW AL (Dennis of 7/2005 in a very unusual location) - TWO Macon - TWO S GA I know I've said it before but damn it this type of stuff is really incredible and deserves praise every time. Your stats are just amazing larry. I have so much respect and appreciation for your hard work, valuable stats and insight. I just want to say thank you. No one is better. My only "complaint" is you would put out these stats for athens lol At any rate, loving the last two runs of the gfs, as well as the relative agreement of the tropical models of late showing a favorable path. I know it's really really really not a good idea to get too happy or excited about tracks and rainfall this far out but it's hard not to when you see quite a few runs showing such a track and rainfall. As I've said before, I just wish the euro would come on board though. i hate it's being so stubborn with it's far west track. If it does, my confidence/excitement would be a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I would never wish this on anyone, nor would it be my preferred storm to chase if I was an amateur. Hopefully it comes in 40mb higher or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I would never wish this on anyone, nor would it be my preferred storm to chase if I was an amateur. Hopefully it comes in 40mb higher or so. I wouldn't be surprised if it was that strong...or certainly stronger than advertised right now, as it looks like this storm will be over water for quite a long time with favorable upper level conditions (at least per nhc) with less land interaction than earlier expected. It should be noted also this area, along with areas to the east, certainly don't need the rain due to debby and a lot of flooding would occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I already have 8"+ for the month, and with some of the HPC predictive totals, that could put me close to 20" for August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if it was that strong...or certainly stronger than advertised right now, as it looks like this storm will be over water for quite a long time with favorable upper level conditions (at least per nhc) with less land interaction than earlier expected. It should be noted also this area, along with areas to the east, certainly don't need the rain due to debby and a lot of flooding would occur. There are many examples. Opal, Frederick Katrina ect... storms can explolde, increasing rapidly in the gom under favorable conditions. There are many examples. Isaac will not have much against him once in the gom., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Well, Tony...this one for the last 24 hours has looked like a dead aim for us.....went back and cked Ivan and Opal tracks and intensity.....both cat 3 at landfall....Ivan track a little farther west than Opal......Opal is the worst storm I've ever been through in my 41 years here.....This could come in as a cat 2.....but it's making a beeline for our houses......this could be a very interesting next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 There are many examples. Opal, Frederick Katrina ect... storms can explolde, increasing rapidly in the gom under favorable conditions. There are many examples. Isaac will not have much against him once in the gom., Visible imagery this morning shows a decent well defined center, even though convection is hardly impressive. But thats because a lot of the inflow is being disrupted due to land on both sides..in particular Haiti and the Domonican republic. Once it moves away from cuba, convection should once again be pretty strong...but then again you never know. I think dacula noted the shear ahead of the system due to the trough east of florida in main board thread... But per nhc the ridge will build back in in 36 to 42 hours. It might not strengthen fast after it passes cuba due to remaining interaction of the inflow because of said land...as well as possibly the shear. But after 48 hours, I think we see it strengthening quite a bit. Regardless of the strength, lots of heavy reain per models and hpc. Here's the latest hpc preliminary forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 l love the 11am track or Ga and the carolinas 099 WTNT44 KNHC 251502 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012 ISAAC HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS HAITI. THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE CENTER PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 998 MB...AND THAT THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 60-70 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THESE WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DISORGANIZED...WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND LITTLE CONVECTION CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISAAC IS AT THE EASTERN END OF A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JOGGED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/15. IN THE SHORT-TERM...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION... COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ISAAC...SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE TIGHTLY- CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FINAL LANDFALL POINT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 72-96 HR. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION...SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM LAND...WOULD SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 12 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AFTER LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 20.1N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 21.7N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 23.3N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 24.7N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 25.9N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 31.5N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 33.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Wow. Some of these rain maps really are incredible. New track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 I'm going to hold out hope that it shifts 50 miles west. Gonna be pretty painful to be sitting right on that sharp western cutoff. I'll really feel bad if west TN misses out completely as well. They really need the rain, and western NC really doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 12z not looking good for NC, SC and eastern GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Yep...12z GFS significantly farther west, storm creeps northward along the MS/AL border...that's big rains for MS/AL and eastward to about Atlanta...not as much rain for the Carolinas this run but still a strong southeast flow that could focus some rains in the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Further west...and stronger at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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