Stormsfury Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 When are they not? They find every possible way to have a system impact the center of the weather universe...the mid atlantic or northeast. They are the most biased forecasters I've ever seen. You beat me to it. Now on a topic note. Let's take into account seasonal trends this season thus far and let's go back to Alberto and Beryl, not the typical tropical cyclones but both had sharp recurvature points, as well as what the GFS is showing after landfall. In fact, the GFS after landfall sharply resembles what Beryl did with a difference of about 50-100 miles moving NE thru Central SC. Debby was a tremendously different animal and ended up moving ENE across Northern Florida as a weak storm/depression. In particular, the ECMWF had it going to the Western GOM consistently becfore making an erratic shift where the GFS had it pretty much correct the whole time (score a big win for the GFS on that). Considering the spread, though still quite large is still very clustered and agree that Isaac will likely be in the Eastern GOM by Monday/Tuesday - intensity highly uncertain due to how land interactions and also inner core struggles. In regards to the QPF outputs, the potentials are very high especially for where the large shield of heavy rain bands set up and rotate around, but I saw some see those dry spots showing up particularly in SE GA/E SC. take into account a broad southerly to SE flow and the recipe's set up for frequent showers to move/develop from the ATL, and then you a get a trainer that dumps 1-2" rainfall rates for 1-2 hours. Past experiences I have seen better rainfalls from that versus a weakened storm after a landfall passing with 50 miles of this location. Isaac had an extensive aerial coverage, one - since it hasn't consolidated with no dominant inner core low center (although it appears to be working towards that now, just in time to have a meeting with some land) in thus (2) has kept the wind field and coverage very broad. I haven't been on here much but still very shocking to me that some areas in the Southeast have been still marred in a drought considering how seemingly wet it's been this summer at times. Augusta GA has had ranging from 9"-11" this month. Seeing the CL6's from the around the area in GA/SC show it's been a wetter pattern, but unfortunately a lot of areas have had many measurable rain days but really nickel and dime amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Plausible track IMO... Basically the GFS has been holding on to this type of track for a while. The models have been having problems in the initializing on this, and the NHC mentioned that, there are several low levels circulation and they're competing for dominance, so Isaac is slow to get started. And just when he may be getting his act together, finally, it will probably be affected by the Dom. Rep or eastern Cuba the next 48 hours. The flow aloft is great, with good outflow and that is actually forecast to hold all the way to the Florida panhandle but by then all the land interaction could make it fight for its growth. If it could miss south Florida as far as eyewall then I think it will grow quickly near the Keys, but if its onland in western peninsula of Florida, it will obviously weaken the core (stilla lot of rain). The GFS lurches it north of Cuba, kind of like re-development, but who knows if thats right. Until it gets going in solid certain direction with only one clear center I think the storm will have wide cone, but I like NHC path pretty good. So far I'm sticking with my preliminary call of yesterday, and turns out the last few runs of GFS are about the same. If it works like that, obviously Georgia's drought will be gone in one foul swoop on Tuesday and Wednesday...but of course no guarantees. I'm always extra lenient on forecasts (and forecasters and models) when it comes to tropical forecasting because that's so unreliable most of the time. We're not dealing with cold cores like 95% of the rest of the year, so this is the time of year when you have to really allow huge errors and wide cones especially each day out past 3 days...in the big picture a 500 mile miss is not that much on day 5) but I know the public views it differently. Also a few days ago on my website I mentioned that models would probably miss an upper low, and sure enough, over the last 2 days a weak upper low formed on the East Coast trough, so that may be playing a factor on the direction of Isaac...it may be why he gets pulled north next 2 days too, if he does, despite the fact the trough is far removed, you can see it does look like its affecting it though on satellite. Once that trough gets out of the way (if it ever does, seems like its been in place a week now), the big steering flow will be the Bermuda Ridge. If Isaac is far enough north in latitude he will keep moving northwest, then north, then northeast, much like GFS shows. If not, then ECMWF will be closer to correct because he's would be so far south that the ridge won't have that much effect on his track. Its an extremely tough call to make, and makes forecasting fun. By the way, GFS has some big totals over 10" along the northern semicircle, and if that track verifies those numbers are probably too low, since trop. systems almost always drop more than models show. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Joe and Henry's forecasts are ridiculous. Nothing in the models suggests what they are calling for. I agree the model dont support them.........that doesnt mean that the models wont jump back to the east and end up there....if that happens then what? Look there is more to forecasting than model hugging sometimes you gotta look at the maps and say the models are wrong climo suggest this or that etc which is what Joe and Henry are doing, it doesnt make the forecast ridiculous IMO jbut it isnt playing it safe and hugging the models like most folks do. I point to my previous example of Ernesto back in 2006 all the models had it as a strong hurricane in the central GOM, 5 days later it came ashore in Wilmington NC as a 70 mph TS. For the record I think the models have a decent handle on Isaac but it wouldnt surprise me at all if this thing continues to trend east a bit more, maybe not up the east coast but into south Florida and then up the west coast of Florida or just inland or offshore of Floridas west coast sounds pretty reasonable RIGHT NOW based on the info we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Models have flipped and flopped on this storm from day one. DT and JB both have made their thoughts as have other mets. If you have listened to JB he has had same tract since tuesday and based on the latest models he is not far off. I for one hope it goes more west for us to get rain but really don't care who is right or wrong. He also said another storm Sept 2-5th? DT has changed every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 HM sticking to his guns: Guess I have not been paying attention too recently but HM used to refer to our own poster...not Henry! LOL...I kept wondering why HM was writing like that,,.If I had looked at the link. Euro has not changed much...Still more towards MS/AL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Models have flipped and flopped on this storm from day one. DT and JB both have made their thoughts as have other mets. If you have listened to JB he has had same tract since tuesday and based on the latest models he is not far off. I for one hope it goes more west for us to get rain but really don't care who is right or wrong. He also said another storm Sept 2-5th? DT has changed every run. I thought they had been fairly consistent...the hard part here is that the peninsula of Florida is in the way so it makes ridiculously huge consequences as to whether it goes up the east or west side or right up the middle. This is why I don't understand why JB would give himself such a narrow window to be right....but the GFS has clung to recurvature while the Euro has clung to the Central Gulf give or take 100 miles on each... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I haven't been on here much but still very shocking to me that some areas in the Southeast have been still marred in a drought considering how seemingly wet it's been this summer at times. Augusta GA has had ranging from 9"-11" this month. Seeing the CL6's from the around the area in GA/SC show it's been a wetter pattern, but unfortunately a lot of areas have had many measurable rain days but really nickel and dime amounts. SF, it has been very weird around here the last few months. I went for over 20 days without even a drop, then was hit with 5 inches July 3-5, then nothing for a while, then several inch plus events, with sprinkled in half inch amounts, but mostly in the last few weeks I've been getting .05, or .1, or .15 amounts. So...since July 3 I've gotten over a foot, and the ground has been damp a lot, and it has been more all day cloudy and often cooler than the normal July/Aug., but usually the days look and feel like drought still, lol. Ahhh, what I wouldn't give for the daily afternoon boomers of my youth This all or nothing rain just doesn't feel right, even if it looks good on paper, lol. And if this hurricane manages to find my yard, it seems the binge and purge will continue. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 12z EURO has landfall in Mobile Bay at 120 and moving NNW at landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Looking at the 12z Model Suite...Euro is as far west of Mobile while the GFS is in the Florida Panhandle... If you just look at the synoptic setup on each model, it seems like the model biases are rearing their heads... The Euro takes Issac all the way to Memphis by 168 while the GFS has it in Central North Carolina. IMO the point of landfall is shrinking down, I think the reasonable call if you wanted to make one at this point is to take the middle road which would be a landfall going due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Guess I have not been paying attention too recently but HM used to refer to our own poster...not Henry! LOL...I kept wondering why HM was writing like that,,.If I had looked at the link. Euro has not changed much...Still more towards MS/AL... Yeah, sorry for the confusion. I should have posted his entire name. I think HM on AmericanWx was before my time, as I'm still not too sure to whom those initials refer. Thanks for posting your storm thoughts on this and other events. I appreciate the time all you mets take to share with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Set a course for adventure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoke Eater Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Set a course for adventure... I am mostly lurking and learning, but dude, that was sooo funny I had to tell someone. Besides, you gotta start posting sometime, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Looks pretty sexy to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Hey, Smoke! From watching the Doc, and Goofy, and the Hurricane Center cone, listening to my betters, and confabing with the moles, I've concluded a hit around Destin, and a bee line to my house And you are between me and the ocean, so I expect all smoke down your way will be beaten down by copious rains, lol. And, even if I'm wrong, I'm so glad to see another south of Atlanta poster, so welcome! And post more! Tony... up around Griffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 A few interesting pieces of information from Dr. Masters himself. "Infrared and visiblesatellite loops show that Isaac is starting to close off a center, and eyewall formation will likely begin early this evening. It is possible that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north may not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and the ECMWF model indicates that Isaac could stall out after landfall, and spend several days over the Tennessee Valley. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005." Source http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2202 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Already getting thunderstorms in Miami this afternoon. The easterlies have really picked up today as well. I imagine there will be a tornado threat on Saturday and especially Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Joe and Henry's forecasts are ridiculous. Nothing in the models suggests what they are calling for. How often are the models right on the money a week out?That's the reason they have the conr at the end when they show projected path.Why not wait til the storm passes then see which model or Met was right. Also 2 weeks ago Joe,and i'm guessing your talking about Bastardi,said the southeast could be hit by a storm between the 25th of August and Sept 6th.Say Hello to Isaac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 GFS looks like it's taking it more westward...ugh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Well guys I am in preparation mode as I have interests in the Western Florida Panhandle. If Landfall looks likely between Gulfport, MS to around Mexico Beach, FL. come Sunday afternoon (sooner if necessary) I will make my way down. Kind of mixed emotions right now as I would love to chase but really don't need to take time off of work. If I do go I will try to post what is going on as much as possible. I guess the next 48hrs or so will tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Ilike the western solution(ms/al landfall). There is realy no trough to pick this up, especially accelerate it to the N and NE. I could see this being a slow moving system after landfall and meandering around for a while in the deep south. Not to say it won't be pulled North eventually, it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 GFS with the bend west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 2 more days and we will know. I do not think anyone is sure right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It is really hard to go against maps like this and the Euro. Isaac will likely make landfall in 4-5 days. I can't envision a hard shift in the modeling over the next few days. There are too many that agree on the same general solution, there is definitively a cone of uncertainty but it's shrinking with each update and you keep getting the same outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Interesting analogs of Charley, Dennis, and Gustav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 That track would bring a lot of rain to some GA posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Here is some more recent output : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 My advice to people in Alabama and Georgia is if this thing gains forwards speed then anticipate a tornado outbreak on Tuesday through Thursday. The amount of friction along with steady forward speed will be a recipe for a lot of low-level wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 00Z GFS Landfall Isaac really slows down at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 According to the 0z GFS, we need to start building boats. What Georgia drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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