deltadog03 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 WOW per 06Z GFS if this were to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Unfortunately, I think the bulk of Isaac misses the southeast except for the western periphery, or if does bend east like the 06z GFS shows (which I think likely at some point, it will have wrung itself out more than shown. I could see 2-4" over north GA, upstate SC, and northern NC, but I guess I was hoping for a more regionwide dumping from this storm. Oh well, maybe next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 ..HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ISAAC IS A LITTLE STRONGER... 8:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 Location: 16.0°N 70.3°W Moving: W at 15 mph Min pressure: 1000 mb Max sustained: 50 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 WOW per 06Z GFS if this were to materialize. And that could be less that what actually occurs (if the 06z track is right...which of course is anyone's guess). Besides models usually underestimating rainfall totals with TC, The reason i mention this is the gfs shows incredibly high pws associated with this storm..as high as 2.7 to 2.8 inches as it cross Ga and into the carolinas. You talk about an atmosphere that is loaded with moisture. It's really rare to get pws that high, obviously. And even the weakest of showers would give you some good amounts and the steady rainfall with the core of the system would be very good to say the least. So pretty much the most efficient rain/showers/storms possible, if it verifies. So extreme rainfall amounts to say the least with this system where ever it goes. I like the fact the hurricane models/gfs are further east on the 06z run but who knows if it's right...for several reasons. One it's just one run. Second, the euro still has it going much further west. The euro hasn't done too great with tropical systems this year but run after run after run of it going so far west is cause for concern to me. Third is this constant westerly movement it has. Although the models, even the euro, shows it turning sharply NW later on today/tonight, one has to wonder. The good news, regardless, is the fact (at least at this point), Ga and the carolinas will be on the east side of the storm. There is a very sharp drop off of heavy rain to the west of the system on both the euro and gfs. So the best case track for Ga/carolinas, as far as heavy rain goes, would be along the al/ga border where it then turns northeast. Euro of course keeps it moving north...but even the euro would keep us in the higher tropical moisture feed with training feeder bands a possibility. Still, I would hate for this thing to go so far west per euro. Last nights 0z models were really a let down but the 06z runs give a bit more hope. But of course with every run, it will change...just hopefully not for the worst..as far as lesser rainfall is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 And that could be less that what actually occurs (if the 06z track is right...which of course is anyone's guess). Besides models usually underestimating rainfall totals with TC, The reason i mention this is the gfs shows incredibly high pws associated with this storm..as high as 2.7 to 2.8 inches as it cross Ga and into the carolinas. You talk about an atmosphere that is loaded with moisture. It's really rare to get pws that high, obviously. And even the weakest of showers would give you some good amounts and the steady rainfall with the core of the system would be very good to say the least. So pretty much the most efficient rain/showers/storms possible, if it verifies. So extreme rainfall amounts to say the least with this system where ever it goes. I like the fact the hurricane models/gfs are further east on the 06z run but who knows if it's right...for several reasons. One it's just one run. Second, the euro still has it going much further west. The euro hasn't done too great with tropical systems this year but run after run after run of it going so far west is cause for concern to me. Third is this constant westerly movement it has. Although the models, even the euro, shows it turning sharply NW later on today/tonight, one has to wonder. The good news, regardless, is the fact (at least at this point), Ga and the carolinas will be on the east side of the storm. There is a very sharp drop off of heavy rain to the west of the system on both the euro and gfs. So the best case track for Ga/carolinas, as far as heavy rain goes, would be along the al/ga border where it then turns northeast. Euro of course keeps it moving north...but even the euro would keep us in the higher tropical moisture feed with training feeder bands a possibility. Still, I would hate for this thing to go so far west per euro. Last nights 0z models were really a let down but the 06z runs give a bit more hope. But of course with every run, it will change...just hopefully not for the worst..as far as lesser rainfall is concerned. good post, but want to mention that in the past couple hours as Isaac has become more stacked, it has taken the NW turn the models were forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Unfortunately, I think the bulk of Isaac misses the southeast except for the western periphery, or if does bend east like the 06z GFS shows (which I think likely at some point, it will have wrung itself out more than shown. I could see 2-4" over north GA, upstate SC, and northern NC, but I guess I was hoping for a more regionwide dumping from this storm. Oh well, maybe next time. Writing it off 4 days out is a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Anyone remember this storm from last year? Brought a 105mph tornado in Wilkes that went directly up Stone Mountain. Looks like Issac could also place some of us in that north-east quadrant. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 ^^ that one also brought me a foot of rain. And the second longest power outage I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Writing it off 4 days out is a good idea. plaese re-read what I wrote. It was my opinion. I'm not that married to Isaac to care either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 So Isaac is kind of like a winter storm in the south,u don't want to be in the sweetspot 5 days out,because u know it will change.the track for good rain is Ga,Sc,Nc as of now.hope we get some good rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 u don't want to be in the sweetspot 5 days out Love it.... Interesting that the Euro had some truth in it afterall...whether or not we ever get anything more than a tropical storm will also be interesting to see...some years it seems you cannot get anything to organize an inner core and others just require someone to sneeze and you have a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Plausible track IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Fixed it for ya. Good to see you posting Mr. Bob! Remember those days from Peachstate Wx and all the CAD storms we had! Keep it coming! Love it.... Interesting that the Euro had some truth in it afterall...whether or not we ever get anything more than a tropical storm will also be interesting to see...some years it seems you cannot get anything to organize an inner core and others just require someone to sneeze in Africa and you have a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 ...ISSAC STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA... 11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 Location: 16.3°N 70.8°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 1000 mb Max sustained: 60 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It is possible that Isaac could be approaching Category 3 strength by the time it makes landfall on Tuesday on the Gulf Coast, as suggested by the latest 06Z run of the HWRF model. - Dr. Jeff Masters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It is possible that Isaac could be approaching Category 3 strength by the time it makes landfall on Tuesday on the Gulf Coast, as suggested by the latest 06Z run of the HWRF model. - Dr. Jeff Masters Not saying it won't. Intensity forecasts are very difficult...but it sure has had trouble getting its act together so far. You take a big storm like Georges in 98 and it nnever could regain form after being hacked up by the mountains. This is barely a TS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 I was in College in South Georgia during hurricane season of 1995. And I was reminded of Hurricane Allison with this current forecasted track. I realize the start point and path are a little different, but land fall position is somewhat similar. It got pretty rough in South GA with tornado's and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 plaese re-read what I wrote. It was my opinion. I'm not that married to Isaac to care either way. When you write, "Oh well... maybe next time." I am not really sure what you expect? To Mr. Bob's point, the models don't have a freaking clue what is going to happen. It could go inland, take a hard E - NE track and then we get to hear you tell us about how 8" of rain looks IYBY. Word to the wise, don't post stuff like that on here or Lookout will smack you. EDIT: Especially during in sort of storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 HM sticking to his guns: I believe that trough is the key to the track of Isaac as it comes off Cuba. The other track map shows the two possible tracks Isaac can take. If the trough is weaker and goes north, Isaac will end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the trough is stronger and goes east, it will bring Isaac up the East Coast of Florida which I have been in the camp for happening all week. I know none of the models show that possibility, but I am going to hold on to the track until I see otherwise. Yes, I know I am going out on a limb and against all models, but it just seems to me that a track into the Gulf seems odd given the trough in the Rockies and the trough associated with Joyce. I believe that Isaac will try to squeeze between the two up east of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 When you write, "Oh well... maybe next time." I am not really sure what you expect? To Mr. Bob's point, the models don't have a freaking clue what is going to happen. It could go inland, take a hard E - NE track and then we get to hear you tell us about how 8" of rain looks IYBY. Word to the wise, don't post stuff like that on here or Lookout will smack you. EDIT: Especially during in sort of storm mode. The quote you allude to was tied to my statement about a regionwide dumping, which would include Southeastern GA and SC where I live. I recognize that inland areas will see good rains, but as you say, no one knows at this point how much. I still stand by my contention that "region wide", I do not believe everyone will cash in on soaking rains. I'm not sure why people get personally invested in other people's opinions when they are not in alignment with theirs. As I stated, it's okay to disagree with my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Not saying it won't. Intensity forecasts are very difficult...but it sure has had trouble getting its act together so far. You take a big storm like Georges in 98 and it nnever could regain form after being hacked up by the mountains. This is barely a TS... OTOH, I've seen rather weak storms seemingly hold together more than hurricanes when crossing land. In fact, I remember some storm center's looking better/more defined after crossing land... not sure why. I think regardless of the intensity, rainfall will be good...wherever it tracks. When you write, "Oh well... maybe next time." I am not really sure what you expect? To Mr. Bob's point, the models don't have a freaking clue what is going to happen. It could go inland, take a hard E - NE track and then we get to hear you tell us about how 8" of rain looks IYBY. Word to the wise, don't post stuff like that on here or Lookout will smack you. EDIT: Especially during in sort of storm mode. Yes, it's better in this thread not to say It's going to do XYZ without any or much reasoning to back it up. It's fine to the banter thread, but folks should leave this thread to forecasts backed up by proof, not just "gut feelings". The quote you allude to was tied to my statement about a regionwide dumping, which would include Southeastern GA and SC where I live. I recognize that inland areas will see good rains, but as you say, no one knows at this point how much. I still stand by my contention that "region wide", I do not believe everyone will cash in on soaking rains. I'm not sure why people get personally invested in other people's opinions when they are not in alignment with theirs. As I stated, it's okay to disagree with my thoughts. See above. It's just that you posting this in the main thread, where discussions backed up with reasoning, should be what is posted. It really has nothing to do with your opinion, other than saying it's going to do something 4 days away..especially given that the models haven't been terribly consistent the last 24 hours. It's always annoyed individuals, especially those who have been here for a long time, for anyone saying it's going to do something 4 days out when you know the track is far far from certain. You have to understand that a lot of people know better than to do this. Nothing wrong in having an opinion, hell we all do, but it's better to back it up with something to support it. Just friendly advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Bastardi sticking to his guns also: @BigJoeBastardi: You have to understand. that deep trough off w coast and ridge in rockies is not a central gulf coast pattern, would put this over mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Jeez, the 12z is a wet dream for yours truly, as well as most of the carolinas...showing 10 inches here..as it shows it slowing down for period. It really would take something like this to fill the lakes, creeks, etc. Most likely too good to be true since the next run is likely to be different, then the next run, etc. It's rare for models to right this far out with TCS. Needless to say, this run would produce a lot of flooding in all likelyhood..especially in north ga where they have done much better in the rain department than areas further south. Not to mention the strong east/southeasterly upslope flow on S/E/SE/ facing slopes and again very high pws. And the good news is it hits the hardest drought areas in central Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 The fact is regardless of how advanced our models have become there is still plenty of room for error. I wouldnt be surprised to see a bit more east trend or a period of windshield wiping as the models try to digest the newer datasets from the other flights especially the ones in the ATL sampling the ridging. A lot of folks will look/feel stupid if this thing does end up going up the east coast of Florida lol. I personally think the models will not have a good handle for a couple more days so I would take them with a grain of salt just cause they all agree doesnt mean they arent all wrong, also land interaction can cause wierd motions and interaction so there is really no telling what we will be dealing with when Isaac emerges north of Cuba..... If I was a betting man though all my money would be on a Florida landfall..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Joe and Henry's forecasts are ridiculous. Nothing in the models suggests what they are calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Joe and Henry's forecasts are ridiculous. Nothing in the models suggests what they are calling for. When are they not? They find every possible way to have a system impact the center of the weather universe...the mid atlantic or northeast. They are the most biased forecasters I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Those precip maps are not a wet dream for E.NC as we have had entirely too much rain as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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