Ellinwood Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 FYI that some mets still are going with synoptics that bring the storm into South Carolina and then curving it out to sea along the North Carolina coast If this track holds, SC would get the direct bisecting he coast landfall and North Carolina would only get a brush with the worst of the storm being offshore the coast as t moves up parallel to the coast. Time will tell. Two of those mets are Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity and they are both morons, along with anyone else who thinks Isaac will ride up the East Coast and make landfall the Carolinas. Isaac has been riding west and south of the NHC track, which is now taking Isaac into the eastern Gulf. The models that have reliable skill in TC tracks are in the Gulf. There might be a 1% chance for Isaac to take the track mentioned in the quote above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Two of those mets are Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity and they are both morons, along with anyone else who thinks Isaac will ride up the East Coast and make landfall the Carolinas. Isaac has been riding west and south of the NHC track, which is now taking Isaac into the eastern Gulf. The models that have reliable skill in TC tracks are in the Gulf. There might be a 1% chance for Isaac to take the track mentioned in the quote above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I haven't seen or heard of anyone saying this could head to the Carolinas now. Everything points to it being in Florida and the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Don't shoot the messenger. Just informing, not endorsing, for those that say that haven't heard any east coast forecasts. FYI, this forecast is dated today: 8/23. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/isaac-still-committed-to-east-coast-of-florida-to-s-carolina/70745 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Don't shoot the messenger. Just informing, not endorsing, for those that say that haven't heard any east coast forecasts. FYI, this forecast is dated today: 8/23. http://www.accuweath...-carolina/70745 HM says....... Commentary I remain committed to a path up the East Coast of Florida into South Carolina. My reasoning is such... 1. Isaac remains weak and continues to come around the Atlantic ridge. 2. Weak trough over the central Gulf keeps Isaac east. 3. Historically, storms on the track of Isaac tend to curve north once they they move past Puerto Rico. Steering flow would take Isaac west for a time before turning to the northwest once it reaches 70 west taking the storm close to Haiti and over the east end of Cuba. Once Isaac does get off Cuba, at that point the intensification starts and we have a whole new ballgame. As for the models, Euro has trended to the East going from a New Orleans hit to a Mobile Bay Hit. GFS remains on the west coast for Florida which is a rare path. NAM/DGEX take the storm on my path. GFDL is trending east as are the NHC models. Given that the center of Isaac is being adjusted almost every hour, the models are going to continue to have problems with the path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z Dr No takes Isaac into LA/TX. Hopefully it's over doing the ridge(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 HM says....... "I am MR. Groundhogzilla and don't you forget it"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Now that made me spit pepsi all over my desk here at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Never say never these are two disco on 2006 Ernesto TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. 5 days later and much much further east than anyone ever thought TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS 70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I am in no way suggesting anything like this is going to happen and models are much better now than 6 yrs ago but anyone thinking the GOM is a slam dunk is a bit premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Now that made me spit pepsi all over my desk here at work LOL! Sorry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Never say never these are two disco on 2006 Ernesto TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. OTHER THAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND FORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO TO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. 5 days later and much much further east than anyone ever thought TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS 70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I am in no way suggesting anything like this is going to happen and models are much better now than 6 yrs ago but anyone thinking the GOM is a slam dunk is a bit premature. Ernesto made me sad . All that rain that could have been....sigh (EDIT to say MBY not the MA...lol) That was a big jump west for the EC and I hope it's wrong..................I understand the plains need the rain too, but I'm tired of seeing all of the ponds/small streams dried up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z Dr No takes Isaac into LA/TX. Hopefully it's over doing the ridge(s) If the Euro blows this forecast, it will lose a lot of credibility to the GFS as the model of choice. I note many still on the main forum are living in the past and hang onto the Euro's every wiggle, but in reality, the GFS has outperformed it this year. The Euro may be right, but I'd wait to give out the award just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 If the Euro blows this forecast, it will lose a lot of credibility to the GFS as the model of choice. I note many still on the main forum are living in the past and hang onto the Euro's every wiggle, but in reality, the GFS has outperformed it this year. The Euro may be right, but I'd wait to give out the award just yet. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Ernesto made me sad . All that rain that could have been....sigh (EDIT to say MBY not the MA...lol) That was a big jump west for the EC and I hope it's wrong..................I understand the plains need the rain too, but I'm tired of seeing all of the ponds/small streams dried up around here. Me thinks they doth scoff at Mole magnetism to their peril The 12 is even better for Tonyland. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 i've been listening to local mets talking about the strong flow coming from west to east across the midwest and diving down into the western gulf. with this thinking and what i see on this satellite one has to wonder if the models is over looking something. heres a link that shows the strong flow coming from the west coast in the western gulf. with a flow like that would it eventually shift the track further east. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Way too early to be awarding one model this early or getting excited about its solution. Models will have the data from the NOAA jet in them tomorrow morning. That may or may not spice things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 18z GFS shifted west, it might make landfall just east of NOLA (I'm only out to 114 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Wow, New Orleans gets swamped again in the latest GFS run. Isaac comes ashore around hour 126 and then basically stays right over SE LA for the the next day or so. He's a real slow mover according to this model run. Lots more runs to go, though, before we're anywhere near the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I didn't want to clutter up the main thread with this, but I found this Twitter post about 20 minutes ago interesting. "Dr. Rick Knabb @NHCDirector Don't read too much into shifts in track models on an individual forecast cycle. They might later shift back the other way. #Isaac" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I didn't want to clutter up the main thread with this, but I found this Twitter post about 20 minutes ago interesting. "Dr. Rick Knabb @NHCDirector Don't read too much into shifts in track models on an individual forecast cycle. They might later shift back the other way. #Isaac" Pretty much standard for any system tropical or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Model is clustered over Gitmo. I heard they were prepared to move the prisoners from "Tent City" to a facility that can withstand a CAT4. Over 6000 US personnel down there. Probably won't be a huge storm by the time it reaches that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It's starting to feel like the SE might miss out on this one altogether. Granted, there are still a lot of things to be determined, but it's hard to ignore the clear westward trend that has been ongoing for many cycles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 One of the worse potential natural disaster weather related for the US would be the track the HWRF model has layed out at the moment, IF this bacame a strong cat 3+ storm. New Orleans would fair worse from the storm surge than with Katrina. Lake Ponchotrain would literally be picked up and dumped into New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It's starting to feel like the SE might miss out on this one altogether. Granted, there are still a lot of things to be determined, but it's hard to ignore the clear westward trend that has been ongoing for many cycles now. I don't know why you say that. Most of the models still have it hitting the southeast. I think much of the southeast could be in store for a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 It's starting to feel like the SE might miss out on this one altogether. Granted, there are still a lot of things to be determined, but it's hard to ignore the clear westward trend that has been ongoing for many cycles now. I'm feeling that way too and hope I'm wrong. I'm also wondering if it gets it's act together at all. I also read that another heat ridge will form next week so we may head back towards the mid and upper 90's sometime next week. I certainly hope that doesnt happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Boy, if this new GFS verifies, GA/AL will get a massive amount of rain from Issac.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 In this 0Z run of the GFS.... for 2 frames as Isaac crossed Cuba, I thought it was going to take an East Coast track. But instead it is back to it's "just off the coast", up the West coast of Florida track and then goes in East of Mobile. No westward track this time. It pulls into Alabama and just rains, rains and rains some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 hmmmm...looks like the GFS clearly sees a weaker ridge...Lets see if the euro follows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 hmmmm...looks like the GFS clearly sees a weaker ridge...Lets see if the euro follows it What are the implications of a weaker ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Looks like we will be in the Northeast quadrant along with most of Florida depending on where it makes landfall. 00z GFS has shifted east, but not by that much though. 50 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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