Marion_NC_WX Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It would definitely be of great aid to the drought in the plains but at an ugly price for N.O. There is a shift sort of eastward in the Euro and a shift slightly westward in all the other guidance, I suppose...if it does get left behind it will be ugly for the Northern or NW Gulf....there are not any of those in the analogs except for Carmen but there are none on the west side of FLA either. I think the 12z EURO is a pretty significant shift compared to the 0z run...first off the 12z crosses Cuba faster and second, it comes ashore along the Mississippi Coastline as compared to the Marshland of Louisiana in this morning's run... The 12z EURO maps are not loading on Allan's site, can somebody tell me what's happening post-landfall? The last image on the wunderground shows a short wave trough sliding through the Rockies at 180, does that s/w break down the skinny ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It stalls over northern ARK post 180...it will be a disastrous flood for somebody were it to verify....Yesterday's 12z also had a NOLA hit...The primary difference today is that it does make a northward shift a la the other guidance...but probably because it gets shredded crossing Cuba lengthwise for a while, it may be weak enough to not get picked up by the s/w crossing the midwest and is able to then resume a NW path....I think yesterday it never had much of a system until it got to the Yucatan Channel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 It stalls over northern ARK post 180...it will be a disastrous flood for somebody were it to verify....Yesterday's 12z also had a NOLA hit...The primary difference today is that it does make a northward shift a la the other guidance...but probably because it gets shredded crossing Cuba lengthwise for a while, it may be weak enough to not get picked up by the s/w crossing the midwest and is able to then resume a NW path....I think yesterday it never had much of a system until it got to the Yucatan Channel... Seems like the biggest effect will be from the rainfall post potential stall. 12z GFS dumped almost a foot of rain at vidalia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Seems like the biggest effect will be from the rainfall post potential stall. 12z GFS dumped almost a foot of rain at vidalia. My concern is ,like some others,my family and I are headed to Myrtle Beach,Ocean Lakes,.We are leaving next friday the 31st til Sept 4th .Has anyone heard how long this storm is supposed to stick around?We've already paid for the house .Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Just a few gems here...models *should* become much more clear later this week. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS REQUESTED THE INITIATION OF SPECIAL 6 HOURLY SOUNDINGS STARTING AT 18Z THU AUG 23 FROM WFO SAN JUAN AND ALL OFFICES WITHIN THE FOLLOWING STATES: FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP IT IS HOPED THE HIGH ALTITUDE G4 SURVEILLANCE FROM THE NOAA JET BEGINNING THURSDAY WILL SAMPLE THE REGION AROUND ISAAC AND PROVIDE ADT'L INFO FOR MODEL GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I hope it's ok for me to ask this, but does someone mind posting a link to a microwave imagery of Isaac? EDIT: Nevermind, I was able to find it again. (I had lost the bookmark link to it on my old desktop when it crashed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 18z GFS continues its track along I-95 with the worst rainfall occuring along and just west of the track...very sharp cut off on the QPF map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The 06z GFDL if I'm correct.. is showing a Cat.5 off the FL Coast? 140.5knots.. I came up with around 160MPH. Or is the category defined at a different wind level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I am going to post this now before the real craziness gets started and hopefully the mods will let it stay. I saw this today and just cracked up. Here's to hoping we score some good precip with Isaac! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The 06z GFDL if I'm correct.. is showing a Cat.5 off the FL Coast? 140.5knots.. I came up with around 160MPH. Or is the category defined at a different wind level? That's at 900 mb. The category is based on the near sfc winds. Fwiw, between the Euro and the GFS for last year's Irene, the Euro did a bit better in that it trended to the correct landfall location earlier than the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I have a "gut" feeling that NHC will be over more open water in the GOM when they update there map....again, only my op....and my "gut" (which is big) feeling...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I am going to post this now before the real craziness gets started and hopefully the mods will let it stay. I saw this today and just cracked up. Here's to hoping we score some good precip with Isaac! :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I have a "gut" feeling that NHC will be over more open water in the GOM when they update there map....again, only my op....and my "gut" (which is big) feeling...lol I was thinking that earlier as well. It *seems* that the potential is growing, even if slightly, that an adjustment left is more likely than an adjustment to the right. Still way to many variables to have any sort of confidence either in strength or track, but it seems like the eastern GOM solution is gaining more credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The thing is a mess and until it gets stacked, something its apparently in no hurry to do its gonna be a nightmare for the models. I would agree up along the west coast of Florida is the best bet as it stands now but that will be most likely a trashy storm unless it can become a really small cane which it could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The thing is a mess and until it gets stacked, something its apparently in no hurry to do its gonna be a nightmare for the models. I would agree up along the west coast of Florida is the best bet as it stands now but that will be most likely a trashy storm unless it can become a really small cane which it could do. Let him get past Shredderola island first Then he can become stacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 0z GFS trended slightly farther west...no interaction with the Florida Pennisula and a due north heading with landfall on the Panhandle at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Coming slowly due north at 156, large wind field and extensive rain as far north as GSP...this has big flood event written all over it for interior southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Remnant low over Anderson SC at 174...this would be a massive event for the Southern Appalachians...the biggest since Frances 2004... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'll need to build a boat if the 0z GFS is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Dang, the Oz is feeling the Mole magnetism. Guess it will change over and over, but this path gets rain to my yard. Hope the general idea sticks. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Euro @ 168...starting to converge to a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Models have converged to a solution that brings Isaac under Hispanola, through Central Cuba and to a position somewhere between Mobile and Pensacola...not bad for an event 7-Day's out. Only subtle difference is that the Euro maintains a stronger ridge and has Isaac moving northwest at landfall while the GFS uses the trough over the midwest and scoops Isaac due north and then northeast. I think the goalposts have been set...now its time to kick the football between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Much like Ernesto did this thing is pretty much a open wave right now and IMO all modeling is gonna be suspect until we have a well defined LLC and CDO, there is a 100 mile wide area that this center could form so until it does there is little confidence in the models with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I still believe Isaac will cut across Hispaniola as a fairly weak TS and head through portions of eastern Cuba before heading through the Florida Straits & Keys. From there it will hug the West Coast of Florida as it tracks north, which wouldn't allow it to get very strong... Of course, the jog to the southwest may throw a wrench into this thinking and shift my thinking a bit more west. However, with the ridge expected to break down near AL/GA (as has been the case much of August) it will be a tad more west than the NHC's official forecast... Very similar to the 6Z GFS yesterday and today. Of course, if this happens then most of Alabama and western Georgia would stay mostly dry while Florida (Mon-Wed) and eastern GA & eastern Carolinas get dumped on next Wed-Friday. Still waiting to see how Isaac handles the Greater Antilles though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Much like Ernesto did this thing is pretty much a open wave right now and IMO all modeling is gonna be suspect until we have a well defined LLC and CDO, there is a 100 mile wide area that this center could form so until it does there is little confidence in the models with me. I think it coulld end up farther west but a large east shift putting ga nc and sc in play for landfall is about a 0% chance. The models are converging on the east central gom. Ridging is driving the boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Once Isaac gets past the greater Antilles, lookout. Never underestimate the explosive potential of tje gom. I still think this storm will be a major at some point in the gom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z GFS farther west with a landfall around 132 in the western panhandle and moving northward into Southeast Alabama by 150...Alabama and Georgia getting into the heavy rain on this model run...progged for the Apps and Carolina Piedmont eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 You won't believe this...at 168 the storm gets trapped in Southern Georgia, rain actually teases North Carolina...while Georgia is getting flooded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 FYI that some mets still are going with synoptics that bring the storm into South Carolina and then curving it out to sea along the North Carolina coast If this track holds, SC would get the direct bisecting he coast landfall and North Carolina would only get a brush with the worst of the storm being offshore the coast as t moves up parallel to the coast. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 FYI that some mets still are going with synoptics that bring the storm into South Carolina and then curving it out to sea along the North Carolina coast If this track holds, SC would get the direct bisecting he coast landfall and North Carolina would only get a brush with the worst of the storm being offshore the coast as t moves up parallel to the coast. Time will tell. Can you link me to a few of those mets? I believe you but in the main forum i don't see any mets on board with that outcome. I would love to read that different perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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