GaWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Wasn't Irene a fish storm that kept moving west with each model run? I don't remember irene trending east. After intially trending west in the models for Irene, they then trended back east. There were something like 50 GFS runs in a row that had a U.S. hit. Many of the early GFS and Euro runs had it hitting FL or nearby. From there they actually trended westward into the GOM at about 7-8 days before NC landfall (mainly E GOM for a day or two before trending back to FL). After trending back to FL, they then trended to GA/lower SC before ending up in upper SC and NC on all runs within 5 days of NC landfall. Here is part of one post I made on 8/26/12, the day before the 8/27 NC landfall: "I have to give the overall edge trackwise to the Euro as it has been sort of leading the way ahead of the GFS by about 12-24 hours since all the way back on Friday, 8/19. Consider these points regarding only the 0Z and 12Z runs: - The Euro only had two runs in which Irene reached the Gulf (1st one was 12Z run of 8/17). To compare, the GFS had four Gulf 0Z/12Z runs since the 12Z 8/17 run. - Last run into the Gulf: 12Z 8/18 for the Euro vs. 12Z 8/19 for the GFS - Last run into S FL: 12Z 8/20 for the Euro vs. 0Z 8/21 for the GFS - Last run into GA or into SC at CHS or below: 12Z 8/21 for the Euro vs. 0Z 8/22 for the GFS" Edit: Looking back at the thread, the Euro was quite a bit too strong with Irene off the SE coast before landfall on most runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 18Z runs 12z GFS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's impossible to nail down the track this far out, but it sure is fun to speculate. What I noticed in MariettaWx's post of the recent forecast paths are two particular paths: the BAMD from the 18Z runs and the AP13 from the 12Z GFS Ensemble runs. Of course, many of us focus on those individual tracks that would most directly influence us, and I see (through biased and tainted glasses) that those two particular tracks are almost identical to good ol' Hugo from 1989: Of course, having lived through it, I compare all hurricanes to it. Nothing like having the eye of a hurricane pass over you in Lenoir, NC, approximately 500 miles from the coast! (Actually, it was more of a strong TS at that point, but still!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I grew up on the NC coast (the eye of Irene went over my childhood home) and went through SC on US 17 right after Hugo. That experience made my family, who aren't the type of people to leave for a storm ever, to decide that if there was ever a cat. 4+ coming that we would take off. Driving through Francis Marion National Forest and seeing just miles of downed trees (and the few that were standing devoid of bark or branches) was probably the most powerful weather related experience of my life. For those of you that have not seen it, imagine a forest you drive through regularly just being turned into a field...iirc there were a 12 mile swath that was completely leveled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Got to love when the 06Z GFS shows a hurricane moving up the west coast of Florida and making landfall near St. Marks (40ish miles south of Tallahassee). It's almost impossible to get a landfall there from the south like that... Most come from storms that form near the Bay of Campeche and bend back northeast. Certainly going to be entertaining to see where this thing goes.... My gut still tells me this gets in the Gulf and moves ashore somewhere near Naples... Don't ask me why, just one of those gut feelings. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 One thing someone mentioned above, with many, many of the model runs taking this thing the length of Cuba, I don't see how, if Isaac does that, that given the mountains of Cuba and the track, how it would stay well organized. I would think it would really sheer it apart. Now that said, if it did make a Cuban run and somehow stayed organized to get into the gulf, then we would have something for sure. At the very least a good rain maker for Florida and hopefully for South GA where the rivers and lakes really need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's amazing the amount of rain that has fallen in north Florida yet there is so much drought right across central GA...JAX is +8" for the year and there are some areas in the Big Bend that have seen +10" in just the last week with more falling this morning...The 0Z Euro is even further west but most of the rest of the guidance remains over FL or slightly east. Have to believe the Euro will come around in another run or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 One thing someone mentioned above, with many, many of the model runs taking this thing the length of Cuba, I don't see how, if Isaac does that, that given the mountains of Cuba and the track, how it would stay well organized. I would think it would really sheer it apart. Now that said, if it did make a Cuban run and somehow stayed organized to get into the gulf, then we would have something for sure. At the very least a good rain maker for Florida and hopefully for South GA where the rivers and lakes really need it. It would certainly disrupt the low level circulation but as noted by NHC, the environment in the gulf will be very favorable for regeneration and strengthening, with water temps in the mid to upper 80s and even almost to 90 degrees in spots, with the gfs/uk showing duel outflow channels. It would really depend on how much the mid level circulation is disrupted. As long as it stays intact you could could see rapid rapid intensification if it stays over water after cuba. Odd track though overall as noted by CC. Whatever the case, I sure hope this brings some desperately needed rain to Ga south of 85. FWIW, here is the preliminary track of isaac by HPC (essentially due north from days 6 and 7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It's amazing the amount of rain that has fallen in north Florida yet there is so much drought right across central GA...JAX is +8" for the year and there are some areas in the Big Bend that have seen +10" in just the last week with more falling this morning...The 0Z Euro is even further west but most of the rest of the guidance remains over FL or slightly east. Have to believe the Euro will come around in another run or two... Yup! You can attribute much of that to TS Debby and it sitting over Florida for a few days... It was painful to watch the northern fringe of Debby stop just short of Albany, GA and see much of my viewing area receive only a trace or so of rain! That and we've just been in the wrong place for stalled fronts as much of the moisture ended up south and east of us. It's been frustrating and I would love nothing more than to see a nice TS/weak hurricane move through the panhandle of FL and mosey through the Deep South for a few days... But that's wishcasting. I've been thinking the Euro is too far west the past few runs while the GFS was a bit too far east. The 6z run of the GFS this morning is close to what I thought when I first started tracking Isaac after vacation. The weakness in the ridge has traditionally been over the top of AL/GA for much of the summer. I don't see a reason why this won't be the case this go around either... Also, the 0Z run of the Euro has a front to Isaac's north and doesn't pick it up...? That seemed incredibly weird to me when I saw it this morning. I truly believe Isaac will impact Florida in some way shape or form. To what extent? Depends how it handles the Greater Antilles and how long it's over Cuba... The picture will become MUCH clearer once it gets closer to Hispaniola and how it handles the island. That's what I've been telling my viewers all along anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It would certainly disrupt the low level circulation but as noted by NHC, the environment in the gulf will be very favorable for regeneration and strengthening, with water temps in the mid to upper 80s and even almost to 90 degrees in spots, with the gfs/uk showing duel outflow channels. It would really depend on how much the mid level circulation is disrupted. As long as it stays intact you could could see rapid rapid intensification if it stays over water after cuba. Odd track though overall as noted by CC. Whatever the case, I sure hope this brings some desperately needed rain to Ga south of 85. FWIW, here is the preliminary track of isaac by HPC (essentially due north from days 6 and 7). I just hate being just NW of the center. Lots of time for it to do lots of things. I selfishly want in on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012 VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012 ...HURCN ISAAC MAY IMPACT FL DURING THE D5-D7 TIME PERIOD... THE MAJOR THREAT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME WILL BE WITH HURCN ISAAC WHICH IS CURRENTLY CHURNING THE WATERS NEARBY THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATEST NHC TRACK SUGGESTS THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF CUBA BY 25/1200Z WITH A GENERAL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CARRYING IT NEAR THE FL KEYS BY 27/1200Z. FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT ISAAC TOWARD THE SERN U.S. BY MID-NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE CURRENT 06Z/00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A VARIETY OF SOLNS PRESENTED THEREBY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR INTERESTED PARTIES ACRS THE SERN U.S. THE CURRENT TRACK INDICATED BY THE NHC GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN THRU D5 WITH HPC CONTINUING ITS GENERALLY MOTION TOWARD THE NNW INTO CNTRL GA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...PLEASE VISIT THE LATEST TRACK OF HURCN ISAAC ON THE NHC WEBSITE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE IN NATURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MEAN NEG ANOMALY SHOULD BE FEATURED JUST TO THE WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH THIS AXIS OF HGT FALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING SERD TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND/COASTAL PAC NW BY 27/1200Z. CONSIDERING TELECONNECTIONS UTILIZING THIS NEG ANOMALY CENTER...A BROAD AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS SUGGESTED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH A GENERAL MAX ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IN THIS OMEGA BLOCK SIGNATURE...AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS FEATURE IN PARTICULAR WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN HOW MUCH LATITUDE ISAAC WILL GAIN THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC/ENS GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE...THE IDEA OF THIS HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS CONVEYED ACRS THE BOARD. HOWEVER...THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NRN STREAM TROF MOVING THRU THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ERN U.S. DOES VARY WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS OF THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ISAAC. CURRENTLY...THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN MAINTAIN A STRONG ENOUGH 500-MB RIDGE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF 30N. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOLN THE PAST 4 RUNS...INSIST ON ISAAC BEING DRAWN NWRD. OVERALL...HPC FAVORED A SOLN COMPRISING THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN WITH SOME COMPLIMENTS FROM THE 00Z UKMET EARLY ON GIVEN ITS FAVORABLE HANDLING OF THE NRN STREAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I still think the EURO is a bit too far WEST and the GFS is a bit too far EAST. I think this RIDES along the WEST coast of FL or just into the EGOM and makes landfall near the big bend of FL. *moving North* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 That is usually a good landfall area to get rains up into here. I can do without the winds, but the more rain the better. I just want to see the storm trending northward after coming ashore. No curves, please, unless it comes into Ala., or Miss., then it can curve ne Don't much care where it comes in, as longs as it finds my yard as it goes by, lol. Still a ways out, but looking good for now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1000 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012 VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012 ...HURCN ISAAC MAY IMPACT FL DURING THE D5-D7 TIME PERIOD... THE MAJOR THREAT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME WILL BE WITH HURCN ISAAC WHICH IS CURRENTLY CHURNING THE WATERS NEARBY THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LATEST NHC TRACK SUGGESTS THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF CUBA BY 25/1200Z WITH A GENERAL SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CARRYING IT NEAR THE FL KEYS BY 27/1200Z. FCST MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT ISAAC TOWARD THE SERN U.S. BY MID-NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THE CURRENT 06Z/00Z MODEL SUITE HAS A VARIETY OF SOLNS PRESENTED THEREBY COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR INTERESTED PARTIES ACRS THE SERN U.S. THE CURRENT TRACK INDICATED BY THE NHC GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN THRU D5 WITH HPC CONTINUING ITS GENERALLY MOTION TOWARD THE NNW INTO CNTRL GA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...PLEASE VISIT THE LATEST TRACK OF HURCN ISAAC ON THE NHC WEBSITE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE IN NATURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MEAN NEG ANOMALY SHOULD BE FEATURED JUST TO THE WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH THIS AXIS OF HGT FALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING SERD TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND/COASTAL PAC NW BY 27/1200Z. CONSIDERING TELECONNECTIONS UTILIZING THIS NEG ANOMALY CENTER...A BROAD AXIS OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS SUGGESTED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WITH A GENERAL MAX ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. IN THIS OMEGA BLOCK SIGNATURE...AN ELONGATED TROF AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS FEATURE IN PARTICULAR WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN HOW MUCH LATITUDE ISAAC WILL GAIN THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC/ENS GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE...THE IDEA OF THIS HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS CONVEYED ACRS THE BOARD. HOWEVER...THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE NRN STREAM TROF MOVING THRU THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ERN U.S. DOES VARY WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS OF THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ISAAC. CURRENTLY...THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN MAINTAIN A STRONG ENOUGH 500-MB RIDGE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF 30N. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH HAS MAINTAINED ITS SOLN THE PAST 4 RUNS...INSIST ON ISAAC BEING DRAWN NWRD. OVERALL...HPC FAVORED A SOLN COMPRISING THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN WITH SOME COMPLIMENTS FROM THE 00Z UKMET EARLY ON GIVEN ITS FAVORABLE HANDLING OF THE NRN STREAM. HHPC is really confident it'll be a hurricane. As is the NHC. If it has to deal with the greater antilles then it could be severely hindered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I still think the EURO is a bit too far WEST and the GFS is a bit too far EAST. I think this RIDES along the WEST coast of FL or just into the EGOM and makes landfall near the big bend of FL. *moving North*: Very reasonable and pretty much what i see Isaac doing. I see this as a eastern gom threat. Big bend in particular. I think you can take nc, sc, and ga out of the equation. I have not seen the 12 z models yet. Big bend to Panama city is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z GFS would make new lakes over central and south GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Holy Smokes. LOL... 12Z GFS sends it into the big bend area of Florida, blows huge rain over south and east Georgia rolls out around Myrtle Beach and then this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I'm just expecting to get wet in Miami, I don't think the winds will be very strong even if the center ends up farther east than the current forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 22, 2012 Author Share Posted August 22, 2012 just through 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 just through 180 I can always dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 This amateur drawing shows the players that are going to direct Isaac over the next 5-7 days... Western Atlantic (Bermuda High) ridge along with a TUTT low feature currently over Eastern Cuba...it should continue to drift Southwest. Just an early call but I'm calling for Isaac to slide just south of Hispanola, then across Central Cuba and eventually wind up in the Eastern GOM by early to mid next week... Right now, I'm starting to lean away from a South Florida landfall, the Keys would be much more likely. But for the most part, I'm thinking Isaac may have an opportunity to intensify significantly once it gets just south of Puerto Rico and then in the Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 This amateur drawing shows the players that are going to direct Isaac over the next 5-7 days... Western Atlantic (Bermuda High) ridge along with a TUTT low feature currently over Eastern Cuba...it should continue to drift Southwest. Just an early call but I'm calling for Isaac to slide just south of Hispanola, then across Central Cuba and eventually wind up in the Eastern GOM by early to mid next week... Right now, I'm starting to lean away from a South Florida landfall, the Keys would be much more likely. But for the most part, I'm thinking Isaac may have an opportunity to intensify significantly once it gets just south of Puerto Rico and then in the Gulf... I agree with you, this was my first thinking trackwise yesterday. It has yesterday's date on it, but my thoughts remain the same. EDIT: Wow, I didn't realize the picture would be so obnoxiously large, I'll shrink it some and reattach it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Euro is a little different in how it gets there this go around...Isaac crosses Cuba and passes just SW of EYW then heads into the GOM...Just out to 156... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 UMMMM....hello mr.strengthening tropical cyclone!! and for the gfs homers......the euro did NOT trend towards the GFS, its mearly showing a much more likely solution. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Euro is a little different in how it gets there this go around...Isaac crosses Cuba and passes just SW of EYW then heads into the GOM...Just out to 156... Mr. Bob, I really think this could be our eventual track. Might be a hair east of there, but I think PCB or big bend...and its really going to slow down once it hits coast if that ridge traps it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Mr. Bob, I really think this could be our eventual track. Might be a hair east of there, but I think PCB or big bend...and its really going to slow down once it hits coast if that ridge traps it there. It has given way to the GFS though in that it now crosses Cuba much earlier...I think the GFS is going to win this battle but it is still very early....It would not shock me if the Euro got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It has given way to the GFS though in that it now crosses Cuba much earlier...I think the GFS is going to win this battle but it is still very early....It would not shock me if the Euro got it. Agreed...I think they will be very close to one another, but euro still is west and gfs is east...lol go figure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 UMMMM....hello mr.strengthening tropical cyclone!! and for the gfs homers......the euro did NOT trend towards the GFS, its mearly showing a much more likely solution. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Dr No took away the rain from mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 It would definitely be of great aid to the drought in the plains but at an ugly price for N.O. There is a shift sort of eastward in the Euro and a shift slightly westward in all the other guidance, I suppose...if it does get left behind it will be ugly for the Northern or NW Gulf....there are not any of those in the analogs except for Carmen but there are none on the west side of FLA either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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