downeastnc Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It does remind me a bit of Irene this morning and center relocations in this stage are going to play hell with the track, Irene was forecast to follow a pretty similar track at this point but as it approached the islands the center kept jumping north and Irene ended up hitting PR instead of going south as originally predicted. It wouldnt take much a jog to the north to put NC in play, going to be a interesting couple of days as by the end of the week there could be a day 5 plot on the US somewhere. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 As a Miami resident, I'm not worried about this being the big one. The only way to South Florida is through Cuba and it probably wouldn't have time to reach major hurricane status again. If it ends up in the Bahamas it will probably be stronger but it isn't going to turn back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At least there is something to follow / track. GFS throws down some serious rain fall if it was to verify for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 With that out of the way, it sure would be nice to have a classic east GOM can/panhandle hit and up through the southeast path. As a Miami resident, I'm not worried about this being the big one. The only way to South Florida is through Cuba and it probably wouldn't have time to reach major hurricane status again. If it ends up in the Bahamas it will probably be stronger but it isn't going to turn back to the west. A weak tropical cyclone into the drought areas of Georgia and adjacent areas of AL and SC would be just what the doctor ordered. Agree (good news for FL) that if one likes the model consensus, one must consider the mountainous islands. Can't have it both ways. Re the Gulf: We'll see what the Euro does when this thing gets more mature. If/how the Bermuda ridge expands west and/or bridges with a new SE ridge will be a huge driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 For WXSouth Subscribers, Robert has posted a very well explained analysis of future Isaac this morning. It's a good read...check it out. For Weatherbell subscribers to Joe Bastardi, Joe posted a video this morning with his general ideas for the track path of future Isaac. He shows a window, the most likely path and the max likely strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 12z GFS is a massive rain dump for Florida, Southern half of Georgia and about 2/3rds of the Carolinas...as the TD slows down and begins to interact with a trough and front. The Western 3rd of North Carolina would verbatim be just west enough to miss the full effect, winds never go fully Southeast with the low running east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 A weak tropical cyclone into the drought areas of Georgia and adjacent areas of AL and SC would be just what the doctor ordered. Agree (good news for FL) that if one likes the model consensus, one must consider the mountainous islands. Can't have it both ways. Re the Gulf: We'll see what the Euro does when this thing gets more mature. If/how the Bermuda ridge expands west and/or bridges with a new SE ridge will be a huge driver. All eyes will be on if/how/when this will happen. I just hope it misses shredderola island and keeps it's core intact I'll take another Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Is it just me or does it seem that as the convection wanes and the LLC gets more exposed that it is moving slightly more WNW the last few frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Is it just me or does it seem that as the convection wanes and the LLC gets more exposed that it is moving slightly more WNW the last few frames? Does look like that to me as well. Won't be shocked if the center reforms several times. Hurricane Hunters entering the storm now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Is it just me or does it seem that as the convection wanes and the LLC gets more exposed that it is moving slightly more WNW the last few frames? Consider this a warning. That word is dangerously close to, "that which can not be mentioned" on the weather side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 GFS and euro look pretty close for an 8-10 day forecast. 12zeuro! This run is super bad news for the FL panhandle....I don't know if this is ultimately right, but you have think, *for now* GFS over the spine of FL and EURO is near mobile......pretty good consensus for 8-10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The Euro looks more like a New Orleans threat just past Day 10 with the ridge eroding on the western side and building to the north...it is the doomsday type scenario for them....but really you have to question if the Euro has the right handle to get it anywhere near that far west...it keeps it very weak until it gets almost to the Yucatan channel....it is an outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 What do you guys think? We may have a storm per the 5:00 pm update. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:17Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W) B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SPIRAL BAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The NOAA jet is first scheduled to fly into the storm on Thursday afternoon, to do a large-scale dropsonde mission to aid model forecasts. - Dr. Jeff Masters Praying for Haiti. I would get off the island in a heart beat. Rain is going to sweep off those deforested mountains into where people live in tents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 What do you guys think? We may have a storm per the 5:00 pm update. Isaac is here. Just not publicly here yet... so to speak. AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, M They will have it publicly announced on the 5pm update according to the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Seems more of a FL and Gulf threat right now, but some of the model runs have it coming up to SC and NC. Just have to watch for now. I know WRAL is pimping it like crazy on their facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Really really reminds me of Irene maybe its the "I" but Irene was a weakish system in the almost same spot ( maybe a little north) of where Isaac is and the models kept saying she was gonna be a cruiser that went GOM and hit the central gulf coast, basically we are going to see folks model riding every run and its going to get nutty around here....... I bet this ends up being more a Florida/SE coast threat versus central GOM but we will see....... http://www.americanw...ng/page__st__70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Really really reminds me of Irene maybe its the "I" but Irene was a weakish system in the almost same spot ( maybe a little north) of where Isaac is and the models kept saying she was gonna be a cruiser that went GOM and hit the central gulf coast, basically we are going to see folks model riding every run and its going to get nutty around here....... I bet this ends up being more a Florida/SE coast threat versus central GOM but we will see....... http://www.americanw...ng/page__st__70 I can't say I agree with you. Trends are taking this west. It could move back east but I just don't see that happening with the ridge in place. By the way this is now tropical storm isaac. I think this will end up in the gulf of mexico. If it can survive the greater antilles I believe it will be in eastern gulf of mexico threat in the end. I definitely think this will be the first major hurricane of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Really really reminds me of Irene maybe its the "I" but Irene was a weakish system in the almost same spot ( maybe a little north) of where Isaac is and the models kept saying she was gonna be a cruiser that went GOM and hit the central gulf coast, basically we are going to see folks model riding every run and its going to get nutty around here....... I bet this ends up being more a Florida/SE coast threat versus central GOM but we will see....... http://www.americanw...ng/page__st__70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Wasn't Irene a fish storm that kept moving west with each model run? I don't remember irene trending east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Wasn't Irene a fish storm that kept moving west with each model run? I don't remember irene trending east. I don't think it was ever a fish storm really... Back on topic, looks like Isaac will encounter more land masses than Irene did after entering the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Wasn't Irene a fish storm that kept moving west with each model run? I don't remember irene trending east. Did you bother to click the link I included to the Irene thread? Here is the first post on that page from the thread LAST Aug concerning Irene, also she tracked east of forecast until off NC, the track was on of just offshore and she tracked a tad further west right at landfall but nothing major.... 240 hr euro right in middle of Gulf.... shown as a potent cane prolly heading for somewhere from MSY to the middle of the FL panhandle if rolled forward from there. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Tt Did you bother to click the link I included to the Irene thread? Here is the first post on that page from the thread LAST Aug concerning Irene, also she tracked east of forecast until off NC, the track was on of just offshore and she tracked a tad further west right at landfall but nothing major.... 240 hr euro right in middle of Gulf.... shown as a potent cane prolly heading for somewhere from MSY to the middle of the FL panhandle if rolled forward from there. " No, on my phone. I'll look at the irene thread and see what it looks like later. There is some good disco in the main thread right now. Our own phil is posting some great stuff as allwats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Isaac has been named.... NHC has upgraded it to TS Isaac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 So far this year the GFS has IMO spanked the Euro IRT tropics, especially with Ernesto, the Euro over does ridging and thats why its so far west....the GFS has had a better handle on the troughs and the longevity of the troughs, the Euro has been strong ridges with transient troughs which has not been the case......the Euro keeps this thing weak for 5-6 more days which also allows it to get further west, the quicker it develops and faster it moves right now will change the ultimate outcome quite a bit....I dont see this making it into the GOM as much as it will have the Greater Antilles to deal with...it has to follow the curernt Euro modeled track to be a major in the central GOM and if it does it will be a monster anything north of that and it will be tough to deal with the big islands. IF it gets north now though and hits PR it could be a big deal on the SE coast of Florida or points north. Things that could make that more likely are center relocations or the storm bombs and gets stacked and strong early this would prolly help it more north of current track....IMO folks in Florida gotta be sweating this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 So far this year the GFS has IMO spanked the Euro IRT tropics, especially with Ernesto, the Euro over does ridging and thats why its so far west....the GFS has had a better handle on the troughs and the longevity of the troughs, the Euro has been strong ridges with transient troughs which has not been the case......the Euro keeps this thing weak for 5-6 more days which also allows it to get further west, the quicker it develops and faster it moves right now will change the ultimate outcome quite a bit....I dont see this making it into the GOM as much as it will have the Greater Antilles to deal with...it has to follow the curernt Euro modeled track to be a major in the central GOM and if it does it will be a monster anything north of that and it will be tough to deal with the big islands. For whatever reason, the Euro does not intensify the storm so it skirts past the trough....both models rebuild a ridge and to Cheeznado's point,the remnants of the storm could be the most newsworthy part if it cannot organize due to the islands. They could meander about the SE for a couple of days. Aside from that, if the Euro is right and it is backed up by its ensemble mean (which could be construed actually west of the OP) then the model forecasts of the initial trough do not matter all that much. The bulk of the guidance is over FLA or even east of FLA...so the Euro is the outlier...but it is early enough to not discount that yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 For whatever reason, the Euro does not intensify the storm so it skirts past the trough....both models rebuild a ridge and to Cheeznado's point,the remnants of the storm could be the most newsworthy part if it cannot organize due to the islands. They could meander about the SE for a couple of days. Aside from that, if the Euro is right and it is backed up by its ensemble mean (which could be construed actually west of the OP) then the model forecasts of the initial trough do not matter all that much. The bulk of the guidance is over FLA or even east of FLA...so the Euro is the outlier...but it is early enough to not discount that yet... The GFS has taken a trip west with it's latest runs compared to earlier ones...I'd say the GGEM is more the outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 For whatever reason, the Euro does not intensify the storm so it skirts past the trough....both models rebuild a ridge and to Cheeznado's point,the remnants of the storm could be the most newsworthy part if it cannot organize due to the islands. They could meander about the SE for a couple of days. Aside from that, if the Euro is right and it is backed up by its ensemble mean (which could be construed actually west of the OP) then the model forecasts of the initial trough do not matter all that much. The bulk of the guidance is over FLA or even east of FLA...so the Euro is the outlier...but it is early enough to not discount that yet... Right and even though the GFS IMO crushed the Euro with Ernesto and just about all the other systems so far everyone seems to jump all over it Of course there is so much that can change between now and even tomorrow that thinking one model is more right than the other is nuts.....the only consensus I would think is that folks in Florida really really really need to be on their toes with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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