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TS Isaac


BullCityWx

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HPS is predicting more rain in Atlanta than Birmingham from Isaac, even though Birmingham will be closer to the storm. Any explanation for this ?

I suspect something in the modeling makes them think a heavy outer band will set up that far east, much like what was seen today on the east coast of Florida.

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That's what I get for thinking.

:lol: I thought they would have upgraded it to a min hurricane too

I have DirecTV. One thing I like about it is they react to things. They are currently running two special channels carrying TV stations from New Orleans.

I had Directv for many years (since they were Primestar) up until 2 years ago, switched to Dish and now I'm back with Directv. That is one of the things I really missed....watching the special channels :hug:

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:lol: I thought they would have upgraded it to a min hurricane too

I had Directv for many years (since they were Primestar) up until 2 years ago, switched to Dish and now I'm back with Directv. That is one of the things I really missed....watching the special channels :hug:

I haven't had it but for 4 months but so far I really like it.

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Hpc sure has been consistent in giving us some good hurricane rains, no matter if the storm is near or far. I'm happy to be out of the worst of the winds, and tornadoes, as long as I'm getting better than 4 inches of the liquid gold. Got to love those tropical trains. Hope I will be hearing the whistle at my house. But with the storm 2 or 3 states away, gets you kind of edgy. T

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They are forecasting to to increase to cat 2 as it comes in. I've been through a fair number of hurricanes and from experience I can say that there is a difference between strengthening and weakening storms even if the numbers are the same.

What a dangerous situation shaping up for NOLA and other gulf coast residents. If it makes a direct hit on New Orleans at that angle then "this is not good" to quote Vergent from the CC forum. Isaac imo appears ready to deepen rapidly overnight. The IR presentation continues to improve and you can see he is beginning to form an eye and is "breathing" quite well. I think the most likely landfall intensity is Cat 2 but a 3 is becoming a greater possibility imo. The strengthening at landfall part is a little worrisome for the above stated reason if that occurs. I think New Orleans can handle a Cat 2 Isaac, much more and I'm concerned.

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What a dangerous situation shaping up for NOLA and other gulf coast residents. If it makes a direct hit on New Orleans at that angle then "this is not good" to quote Vergent from the CC forum. Isaac imo appears ready to deepen rapidly overnight. The IR presentation continues to improve and you can see he is beginning to form an eye and is "breathing" quite well. I think the most likely landfall intensity is Cat 2 but a 3 is becoming a greater possibility imo. The strengthening at landfall part is a little worrisome for the above stated reason if that occurs. I think New Orleans can handle a Cat 2 Isaac, much more and I'm concerned.

I don't think a cat 3 is in the cards due to dry air intrusion.

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I don't think a cat 3 is in the cards due to dry air intrusion.

Can you shed some light on how reliable intensity forecasts are to use this close to landfall? By the looks of it Cat 3 has been out of the cards for the last 24 hours simply by the trends of the runs, so I agree with you there.18z intensity forecast I think one or two models had it as a borderline Cat 2, rest as a solid Cat 1 storm. I can't see how a hurricane would strengthen after landfall if it can't gain strength over the gulf, I would venture a guess any strengthening would be minimal..so if it's a borderline 2 it'll be a 2 very briefly.

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Can you shed some light on how reliable intensity forecasts are to use this close to landfall? By the looks of it Cat 3 has been out of the cards for the last 24 hours simply by the trends of the runs, so I agree with you there.18z intensity forecast I think one or two models had it as a borderline Cat 2, rest as a solid Cat 1 storm. I can't see how a hurricane would strengthen after landfall if it can't gain strength over the gulf, I would venture a guess any strengthening would be minimal..so if it's a borderline 2 it'll be a 2 very briefly.

We are not very good at intensity forecasts and last minute surprises are always possible.

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2 things I have noticed in the past 6 hours...

Isaac has really slowed down in it forward movement.

and...

In the past 3 hours with the improved satellite presentation has been a definite NNW movement.

I still don't think this storm will get to the same longitude as New Orleans.

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2 things I have noticed in the past 6 hours...

Isaac has really slowed down in it forward movement.

and...

In the past 3 hours with the improved satellite presentation has been a definite NNW movement.

I still don't think this storm will get to the same longitude as New Orleans.

Think the escarpment formed by the new levies will turn it?

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Calc......there is just something about symmetry that gets you. My favorite description is.. ."imprecise sense of harmonious or aesthetically pleasing proportionality and balance". Imprecise fits weather so well, at least visually, but harmonious even when it is chewing you up, lol. T

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Not that I am complaining, but I don't get the 6.57" outlier of rain over Marietta on the map???

I'm assuming this was a straight up question, but that map is probably an algorithm based off 'x' number of weather models, and it's simply showing a relative max amount of precip within that contour....with location subject to change the next time that map is issued.

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Well the models look wet for some of us tomorrow but i have a feeling that it doesnt happen or is much less than the models show. Then the reat of the week will be dry and then hot by the weekend. Raleigh NWS already saying mid 90's possible. Without precip those mid 90's will get all of us, not just eastern NC. Just a gut feeling, but I'm looking for a September with hardly a drop of rain for much of the Carolinas and GA. Maybe Oct too.

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