buckeyefan1 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I think we will have a minimal hurricane at the 5 o'clock statement. It looks like the NHC kept it at 70mph for the 5:00 update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 It looks like the NHC kept it at 70mph for the 5:00 update That's what I get for thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 HPS is predicting more rain in Atlanta than Birmingham from Isaac, even though Birmingham will be closer to the storm. Any explanation for this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I have DirecTV. One thing I like about it is they react to things. They are currently running two special channels carrying TV stations from New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 HPS is predicting more rain in Atlanta than Birmingham from Isaac, even though Birmingham will be closer to the storm. Any explanation for this ? I suspect something in the modeling makes them think a heavy outer band will set up that far east, much like what was seen today on the east coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 That's what I get for thinking. I thought they would have upgraded it to a min hurricane too I have DirecTV. One thing I like about it is they react to things. They are currently running two special channels carrying TV stations from New Orleans. I had Directv for many years (since they were Primestar) up until 2 years ago, switched to Dish and now I'm back with Directv. That is one of the things I really missed....watching the special channels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I thought they would have upgraded it to a min hurricane too I had Directv for many years (since they were Primestar) up until 2 years ago, switched to Dish and now I'm back with Directv. That is one of the things I really missed....watching the special channels I haven't had it but for 4 months but so far I really like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 They are forecasting to to increase to cat 2 as it comes in. I've been through a fair number of hurricanes and from experience I can say that there is a difference between strengthening and weakening storms even if the numbers are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 as of the 5 o clock news the rich plume of moisture off the east coast of florida is suppose to interact with a front passing through north carolina possibly bringing 6 inches to the southeast nc not sure about the rest of nc as im going off what the new said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Looks like its moving NNW at a nice clip..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hpc sure has been consistent in giving us some good hurricane rains, no matter if the storm is near or far. I'm happy to be out of the worst of the winds, and tornadoes, as long as I'm getting better than 4 inches of the liquid gold. Got to love those tropical trains. Hope I will be hearing the whistle at my house. But with the storm 2 or 3 states away, gets you kind of edgy. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 They are forecasting to to increase to cat 2 as it comes in. I've been through a fair number of hurricanes and from experience I can say that there is a difference between strengthening and weakening storms even if the numbers are the same. What a dangerous situation shaping up for NOLA and other gulf coast residents. If it makes a direct hit on New Orleans at that angle then "this is not good" to quote Vergent from the CC forum. Isaac imo appears ready to deepen rapidly overnight. The IR presentation continues to improve and you can see he is beginning to form an eye and is "breathing" quite well. I think the most likely landfall intensity is Cat 2 but a 3 is becoming a greater possibility imo. The strengthening at landfall part is a little worrisome for the above stated reason if that occurs. I think New Orleans can handle a Cat 2 Isaac, much more and I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 What a dangerous situation shaping up for NOLA and other gulf coast residents. If it makes a direct hit on New Orleans at that angle then "this is not good" to quote Vergent from the CC forum. Isaac imo appears ready to deepen rapidly overnight. The IR presentation continues to improve and you can see he is beginning to form an eye and is "breathing" quite well. I think the most likely landfall intensity is Cat 2 but a 3 is becoming a greater possibility imo. The strengthening at landfall part is a little worrisome for the above stated reason if that occurs. I think New Orleans can handle a Cat 2 Isaac, much more and I'm concerned. I don't think a cat 3 is in the cards due to dry air intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I don't think a cat 3 is in the cards due to dry air intrusion. Can you shed some light on how reliable intensity forecasts are to use this close to landfall? By the looks of it Cat 3 has been out of the cards for the last 24 hours simply by the trends of the runs, so I agree with you there.18z intensity forecast I think one or two models had it as a borderline Cat 2, rest as a solid Cat 1 storm. I can't see how a hurricane would strengthen after landfall if it can't gain strength over the gulf, I would venture a guess any strengthening would be minimal..so if it's a borderline 2 it'll be a 2 very briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Can you shed some light on how reliable intensity forecasts are to use this close to landfall? By the looks of it Cat 3 has been out of the cards for the last 24 hours simply by the trends of the runs, so I agree with you there.18z intensity forecast I think one or two models had it as a borderline Cat 2, rest as a solid Cat 1 storm. I can't see how a hurricane would strengthen after landfall if it can't gain strength over the gulf, I would venture a guess any strengthening would be minimal..so if it's a borderline 2 it'll be a 2 very briefly. We are not very good at intensity forecasts and last minute surprises are always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 2 things I have noticed in the past 6 hours... Isaac has really slowed down in it forward movement. and... In the past 3 hours with the improved satellite presentation has been a definite NNW movement. I still don't think this storm will get to the same longitude as New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 2 things I have noticed in the past 6 hours... Isaac has really slowed down in it forward movement. and... In the past 3 hours with the improved satellite presentation has been a definite NNW movement. I still don't think this storm will get to the same longitude as New Orleans. Think the escarpment formed by the new levies will turn it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Think the escarpment formed by the new levies will turn it? It works every time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Nice visible sat pic as we lose the light of day. I like these late evening and early morning sat pics. They're kind of peaceful in a way, even though there is a ton of energy and storminess below the clouds. There is no denying the beauty of these systems as seen from space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I will say, looking at the overall MASS/CDO its still moving in a Northerly fashion.... http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis®ion=FL&numimages=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 This storm has made so many people look like total idiots haha. Isaac has done just about the opposite of what everybody has said it should do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Calc......there is just something about symmetry that gets you. My favorite description is.. ."imprecise sense of harmonious or aesthetically pleasing proportionality and balance". Imprecise fits weather so well, at least visually, but harmonious even when it is chewing you up, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Not that I am complaining, but I don't get the 6.57" outlier of rain over Marietta on the map??? I'm assuming this was a straight up question, but that map is probably an algorithm based off 'x' number of weather models, and it's simply showing a relative max amount of precip within that contour....with location subject to change the next time that map is issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I don't know, IR imagery not impressive at the moment with a lot of dry air intrusion on the north and northeast sides of the center...good for the gulf coast folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I got this off of SimuAWIPS. The ARW model is showing Isaac making landfall west of New Orleans early Wednesday. Notice the multiple feeder bands that extend out several hundred miles from the center of Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I'm happy to see this possibly denting the Midwest drought!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 I just got my first isaac related shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Well the models look wet for some of us tomorrow but i have a feeling that it doesnt happen or is much less than the models show. Then the reat of the week will be dry and then hot by the weekend. Raleigh NWS already saying mid 90's possible. Without precip those mid 90's will get all of us, not just eastern NC. Just a gut feeling, but I'm looking for a September with hardly a drop of rain for much of the Carolinas and GA. Maybe Oct too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Well, I've had showers move up from the south, and it brought the tropical muggy with it. Hot and clammy here now. I liked the past few nights much better. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Well, I've had showers move up from the south, and it brought the tropical muggy with it. Hot and clammy here now. I liked the past few nights much better. T Get used to the humidity. It will be with us for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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