GaWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Makes sense it would be more progressive going into fall. What's Sav's heaviest rain fall? Don't feel the need to wrack your brain, just messing with you while waiting the Doc, lol. As for the moles...could the the mole/weather correllation have existed before I discovered it? I sometimes wonder if it might all be the workings of a fevered brain. Then I think back to 4 inches in one day, after 3 weeks of nada, and I'm all better again Tony 0Z Doc says, moles or no moles, Isaac is going to Bourbon St. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 so why now are the models to be believed? they (models) have been wishy washy for ~3 days now ... but now they have it!!!! .....jk ... thanks to all of you who post .... Americanwx is where i get my info ... you all keep it up and thank you -Aaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 As of 5am EDT/4am CDT (my time), The Weather Channel reported that landfall strength prediction had decreased from Cat 2 to Cat 1. They are still calling for a New Orleans hit, and Jim Cantore is in New Orleans giving live coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Anybody seen HPC's latest map? I don't see how it makes any sense. It's as though they considered rain from both the easterly solution and the westerly one. I can't see how this much rain falls over such a large area. I've been looking at that too, since the 5am EDT updates came out. I find it confusing/conflicting too. It's almost as if the HPC is not forecasting with the current NHC storm track in mind. However, tv forecasters have been emphasizing all night long, the massive radius of this storm, so maybe it's partly because of that. Still, I cannot fathom highest rainfall amounts actually occurring 100 miles east of where the landfall/post landfall track is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I posted yesterday that RI would be able to start around 5:00 ish this a.m.. The eyewall is just about formed looking at latest recon, so now it's off to the races IMO. The ULL thats beeen hindering the storm yesterday off to it's SW has lost enough influence that it want be a drag on this thing ramping up. Not sure what the exact metric/threshhold is to qualify as RI. But I'm in the camp intensification is underway and should ratchet up this afternoon and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Anybody seen HPC's latest map? I don't see how it makes any sense. It's as though they considered rain from both the easterly solution and the westerly one. I can't see how this much rain falls over such a large area. Looks like they slashed it considerably with the morning update. I went from 4 inches to .25 inches in a just a few hours. However, if the Nam or CMC is correct (which is asking more than a lot), then the new progs will bust too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see Isaac get stronger quickly today. Where it goes, though, is a big concern. Just a few hundred miles to the east or west can make a big difference on the impact to New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see Isaac get stronger quickly today. Where it goes, though, is a big concern. Just a few hundred miles to the east or west can make a big difference on the impact to New Orleans. A few hundred miles? How about just a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Looks like they slashed it considerably with the morning update. I went from 4 inches to .25 inches in a just a few hours. However, if the Nam or CMC is correct (which is asking more than a lot), then the new progs will bust too low. Here's the new map for everyone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 A few hundred miles? How about just a few miles. Very true. It's going to be interesting for sure to see exactly where it comes on land. Maybe it will remain weak, though, and spare New Orleans even if it does hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Isaac appears to be one of those storms that is fraught with obstacle after obstacle, concerning its development...constant dry air, unabating shear, land interaction, etc... I think Cat 1 status is about the best it will do. Would love to get some substantial rains from it, but that has looked less likely over the last few model cycles. In the winter, a lot of times you will see a significant SW show up in the longer ranges which digs enough to generate a storm/deeper trough/precip. Then, it disappears or appears weaker for a few cycles, only to show back up as we close in. If the same sort of thing happens in the summer, it wouldn't shock me to see a little but of a deeper trough start to show up which might pull Isaac a little farther to the east after landfall than currently shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I just don't see that much rain falling in the Carolinas with this storm Here's the new map for everyone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hey, CR, yep, I agree this story isn't fully written yet per the trough. Though seeing what might be coming after, I guess it is possible this could end up being the bust before the bashing It is certain, I enjoy the uncertainty, lol, just maybe not as much, when it might be frozen T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hey, CR, yep, I agree this story isn't fully written yet per the trough. Though seeing what might be coming after, I guess it is possible this could end up being the bust before the bashing It is certain, I enjoy the uncertainty, lol, just maybe not as much, when it might be frozen T I hear ya man. Let's get all the waffling out of the way before winter. The new Nam makes landfall around NO at hour 36 and keeps it there the balance of the run. If that were to verify, there would be some Biblical flooding there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I hear ya man. Let's get all the waffling out of the way before winter. The new Nam makes landfall around NO at hour 36 and keeps it there the balance of the run. If that were to verify, there would be some Biblical flooding there. 12z GFS keeps the remnants spinning slowly about the Lower Ohio perhaps part of the TN Valley into Day 7-8.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 12z GFS is a match with last night's Euro Ensemble Mean, taking the storm south of New Orleans, then into SW Louisiana. Won't have the high wind / high surge, but GFS is showing precip bullseye in and around New Orleans in the neighborhood of 12 inches plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 CR, your thoughts from yesterday, or the day before don't seem so far off, at least as of now. Perhaps you scoffed at yourself a bit too early, unless it takes a hook back, to find us some decent rains....and now the even the Nam is not so certain. Of course, I usually don't classify1, 2 or 3 inches as hurricane rains, but that's been all I've gotten out of more than a few...and if it's tropical in nature, brought in by the storm, it counts T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 EURO and CMC spread the love with plenty of rain for most of us in the SE Also: I think we have a very good consensus, for now....NOLA to Gulfport...and I think drifing/moving NNE or N through MS....GFS is an outlier drifting this WEST after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Wellington, Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 EURO and CMC spread the love with plenty of rain for most of us in the SE Also: I think we have a very good consensus, for now....NOLA to Gulfport...and I think drifing/moving NNE or N through MS....GFS is an outlier drifting this WEST after landfall. More and more I look at things, I wonder if Isaac ends up stalling near the mouth of the Mississippi and eventually gets sheared northeast by the mid-latitude flow by the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 More and more I look at things, I wonder if Isaac ends up stalling near the mouth of the Mississippi and eventually gets sheared northeast by the mid-latitude flow by the weekend? It could.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 If I did not have a model to look at and I was just looking at radar loop... I would bet you $500 this thing was headed to Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Just read Allan Hufman's latest blog post and he thinks this will still be very bad for New Orleans. http://www.examiner.com/article/isaac-headed-towards-new-orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 EURO and CMC spread the love with plenty of rain for most of us in the SE Also: I think we have a very good consensus, for now....NOLA to Gulfport...and I think drifing/moving NNE or N through MS....GFS is an outlier drifting this WEST after landfall. yea Robert has on his site we will get a good amount of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 More and more I look at things, I wonder if Isaac ends up stalling near the mouth of the Mississippi and eventually gets sheared northeast by the mid-latitude flow by the weekend? Last night I was thinking the same thing when a couple of the models had it roaring up to NOLa then screeching to a halt, and peeling off to the NE. I think the Nam had that, and one other a kind of halt and stutter to the NE. I was thinking how cruel would that be...scaring the heck out of those poor people. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 looking at current radar it looks like most of the heavy rains are far to the east of the eye. there is a lot of moisture to be wrapped around overnight so i believe most of the moisture east will get caught in the front moving through which will push it east over us in nc.not that this means anything but according to my local mets inhouse model we in south eastern carolina are suppose to go through heavy rains starting tommorow and the good deal of wednsday. with all that heavy rain pretty much on the east coast of florida makes me believe the left over will move ne over us instead of n according to the models...jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 There is a very nice rain band working it's way west toward mby at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Updated HPC rainfall forecast map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 I think we will have a minimal hurricane at the 5 o'clock statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Not that I am complaining, but I don't get the 6.57" outlier of rain over Marietta on the map??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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