WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 If the GFS is right there is no way this moisture gets anywhere remotely close to this area. I'm afraid now that we are headed for a dry and warm to hot Sept and early October with many areas possibly not seeing a drop of rain for 5-6 weeks or more in GA and the Carolinas. Plenty of hurricane season left to go. There is some discussion about a storm after 97L forming...and coming toward the South-East in some of the long range models. Check the 97L thread out there is some discussion out there on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 12Z GFS - High end cat 1 bisecting the LA coastline eventually moving into the LA/TX border area inland. This would mean no rain for the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I still think we will see rain in the GA/AL area even if Isaac moves into MS or LA. And also a big tornado threat like we saw with Katrina. Yeah that's true if it would turn north like Katrina but it looks like the GFS wants to take this to Texas eventually and then probably towards the great lakes. That's way to the west taking the rain and tornado well away from GA and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 If the 12z euro caves and goes west towards the GFS. Then you might as well stick a fork in any chance for rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I approve of this map We are either going to get a foot of rain or we won't get a single drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 If the GFS is right there is no way this moisture gets anywhere remotely close to this area. I'm afraid now that we are headed for a dry and warm to hot Sept and early October with many areas possibly not seeing a drop of rain for 5-6 weeks or more in GA and the Carolinas. The path of this storm has nothing to do with the temperatures or amount of rainfall that ends up occurring in Sept/Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 12z euro stuck to its eastern solution. Still hope for some SE rainfall. 48 hours 72 hours 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 12 GFS Ensemble Mean is a direct hit on New Orleans, tracking Isaac just to the south of the city. The track on the 12z GFS Operational run, which takes it to the TX/LA border, is on the far left (south) of the GFS Ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Heres a good illustration of the surge at this angle. Also Lake Pontchotrain is up 2 feet atm. Nogaps for what it's worth shows sub 930 bullseye on NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 From the afternoon GSP discussion as of 215 PM Sunday...there is still a lot of spread amongst the medium range (and tropical) guidance with respect to the remnants of Isaac...as the system gradually becomes picked up by the westerlies Thursday and Friday. The days 5-7 forecast is quite dependent on where Isaac makes the turn...as the 00z European model (ecmwf) keeps a deep moisture plume and southerly flow into the County warning forecast area as Isaac tracks into the Tennessee Valley...while the 12z GFS has Isaac track into the lower MS valley and the moisture flux to the west. The 12z GFS is a western outlier...and with HPC extrapolating the latest NHC track....I went with HPC guide for the medium range. This is compromise of the 00z European model (ecmwf) and the 00z gefs/European model (ecmwf) ensemble means. This track keeps the County warning forecast area in the moisture plume and results in continued unsettled conditions and a small threat of heavy rain/flooding...especially across the western half of the County warning forecast area. HPC has the Atlantic ridge building west back into the southeast states for next weekend...as remnants of Isaac lift north of the area. Warming temperatures and more typical diurnal showers/thunderstorms expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Around 72 hours and two of the most reliable models STILL refuse to come to any sort of clear consensus. It's quite frustrating. I sorta feel inclined to go with the ECMWF, but it's also hard not to listen to the GFS either. It's been on that LA/MS route for 4 runs now...The models have been more of a headache than Isaac ever has been to track, Isaac is the first storm to keep me interested from the very beginning this hurricane season despite how the models have been acting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Japan model is with the UKMET/EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I'm in the Euro/UKMET and Jap model camp!!! Cause they have a path they may give me a chance at some rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 And we have the sensational headline on Drudge Report up now: "Isaac could rival Hurricane Katrina" It's a link to a Forbes magazine article by Barak, Bastardi, and Lammey. It's more of an economic, oil/gas impact piece rather than meteorology. But, have a read, if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 From the NHC's 5 pm disco.... ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Getting better organized by the hour. IMO we will see RI truly begin in about 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 And we have the sensational headline on Drudge Report up now: "Isaac could rival Hurricane Katrina" It's a link to a Forbes magazine article by Barak, Bastardi, and Lammey. It's more of an economic, oil/gas impact piece rather than meteorology. But, have a read, if you want. No reason to expect Drudge to suddenly become responsible just because it's weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 No reason to expect Drudge to suddenly become responsible just because it's weather. Is it really Drudge's fault? That's the Forbes headline he used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Yep this thing is getting ready to get it's act together! I've seen in the past these things go from a disorganized rotation to a full fledged major hurricane in about 24 hours. Latest water vapor is impressive with the blow up of storms near center or what we think is center. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 From all I have seen this evening I think we could have a cat 3 by this time tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Not sure if you guys are following the thread on the main forum but RECON just went through the coordinates that were used for the 11 pm advisory and the center is not longer there. Its been obvious on the Key West doppler that the center has relocated significantly farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 gfs initialized the center wayy too far south. new orleans in deep doo doo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 gfs initialized the center wayy too far south. new orleans in deep doo doo I just gotta think the GFS is too far west with Isaac in regards to ultimate landfall. Like you said it initialized too far south. Would lean toward Mississippi or Eastern LA and not skirting across all of Southern LA. Also, the GFS getting inside 3-Days out has definitely trended stronger with the eastern trough starting at about hours 48-60 but Isaac is just far enough south to completely miss it. Tomorrow is going to be interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Anybody seen HPC's latest map? I don't see how it makes any sense. It's as though they considered rain from both the easterly solution and the westerly one. I can't see how this much rain falls over such a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Larry, was there any correlation with pressure/ strength at land fall? My guess is weaker storms..but then I'd probably bet against myself, for all the good my guessing does. I'm sure steering has a lot to do with how long it's overhead It just seems to me the strong ones blast through here.... the more wind, and tornados, the less the rain. To get over 5 means it's crawling, so it's weakened down south, and maybe wasn't so strong when it came in. Thanks, T Tony, Sorry about not replying sooner. Maybe there is a slight correlation with strength at landfall. The top two wettest at KATL were cat. 3's at landfall. However, the third wettest, Alberto, was a mere TS. There is probably some correlation with speed as the 2nd through 4th wettest were all relatively slow movers. However, the wettest, Opal, was a very fast mover. There is a pretty strong correlation with July storms as the 2nd through 6th wettest were all July storms and there aren't a ton of July storms overall. Since 1879, I can only count 13 that were in a position to possibly produce 5"+ of rain at KATL. A very impressive 7 of these 13 did just that. In stark contrast, only 2 Aug. storms did just that and Aug. is a much more active month on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Pretty sure the Euro kicked the GFS's a$$ this time around. Even if the Euro changed it's mind much after the fact, it had it nailed in the end regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Tony, Sorry about not replying sooner. Maybe there is a slight correlation with strength at landfall. The top two wettest at KATL were cat. 3's at landfall. However, the third wettest, Alberto, was a mere TS. There is probably some correlation with speed as the 2nd through 4th wettest were all relatively slow movers. However, the wettest, Opal, was a very fast mover. There is a pretty strong correlation with July storms as the 2nd through 6th wettest were all July storms and there aren't a ton of July storms overall. Since 1879, I can only count 13 that were in a position to possibly produce 5"+ of rain at KATL. A very impressive 7 of these 13 did just that. In stark contrast, only 2 Aug. storms did just that and Aug. is a much more active month on average. Hey, Larry. And no worries, just thanks I know you have been busy battening down the hatches. I know the mole magetism has you as alarmed as I am over the coming mega rains, lol. Right now, only the Nam believes, and Hpc, who wants to give 5 inches to everybody, according to the map above I have to say I was stunned to hear Opal was the wettest. I bet I didn't get 2 or 3 inches here. I remember driving over to Greensboro to work, and if there had been heavy rain, I'd have remembered some washouts. It was the wind with that one...and, then I see near 20 in Brewton, Ala. And looks like the mtn.s got slammed with over 10. Alberto was a bullseye here. I may never again see that much rain, that fast here, unless another cork gets cut off and bobbles around, pushed by any zepher. Sure hope this one feels the moles, and the trough, and pulls away from NOLa. Those folks need to be left alone. Now I'm curious about the moisture transport ability in July over Aug. Thanks, again. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Hey, Larry. And no worries, just thanks I know you have been busy battening down the hatches. I know the mole magetism has you as alarmed as I am over the coming mega rains, lol. Right now, only the Nam believes, and Hpc, who wants to give 5 inches to everybody, according to the map above I have to say I was stunned to hear Opal was the wettest. I bet I didn't get 2 or 3 inches here. I remember driving over to Greensboro to work, and if there had been heavy rain, I'd have remembered some washouts. It was the wind with that one...and, then I see near 20 in Brewton, Ala. And looks like the mtn.s got slammed with over 10. Alberto was a bullseye here. I may never again see that much rain, that fast here, unless another cork gets cut off and bobbles around, pushed by any zepher. Sure hope this one feels the moles, and the trough, and pulls away from NOLa. Those folks need to be left alone. Now I'm curious about the moisture transport ability in July over Aug. Thanks, again. Tony Tony, You're welcome. Here's my edumucated guess. Of the 7 July 5"+ producers for KATL, an impressive 4 were moving relatively slowly as they approached ATL. However, regarding the 7 Aug-Oct 5"+ producers, only one was moving slowly. So, I assume that the tendency for a very sluggish upper atmosphere in the SE US in July vs. the later three months makes for the best shot at a slow moving storm in July and, thus, heavier rainfall. Then again maybe the moles are more active in the heat of July?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Tony, You're welcome. Here's my edumucated guess. Of the 7 July 5"+ producers for KATL, an impressive 4 were moving relatively slowly as they approached ATL. However, regarding the 7 Aug-Oct 5"+ producers, only one was moving slowly. So, I assume that the tendency for a very sluggish upper atmosphere in the SE US in July vs. the later three months makes for the best shot at a slow moving storm in July and, thus, heavier rainfall. Then again maybe the moles are more active in the heat of July?? Makes sense it would be more progressive going into fall. What's Sav's heaviest rain fall? Don't feel the need to wrack your brain, just messing with you while waiting the Doc, lol. As for the moles...could the the mole/weather correllation have existed before I discovered it? I sometimes wonder if it might all be the workings of a fevered brain. Then I think back to 4 inches in one day, after 3 weeks of nada, and I'm all better again Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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