Marion_NC_WX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 This darn thing is heading for Dallas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I feel sorry for whoever has to make the call for emergency status in New Orleans... they have about 48 hours to make a decision... maybe less and quite frankly.. which model or model run do you believe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Thanks Griteater. I did mean SE. The GFS track wouldn't have to rely on the storm surge to flood all of NO. The pumps assuming the generators would keep them runing would not be able to keep up and pump the water out of NO fast enough. Remember there is nowhere for the water to drain, it all has to be pumped out. The 0z GFS would be the Perfect nightmare. It literally stalls the Hurricane right on top of NO at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Cat 3 Major, am I wrong?....bad news... photo courtesy weatherbellmodels/Ryan Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Cat 3 Major, am I wrong?....bad news... photo courtesy weatherbellmodels/Ryan Maue Depending upon wind reduction , could even be a low end cat 4 Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Depending upon wind reduction ratio, could even be a low end cat 4 Sent from my Milestone X 2 Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Cat 3 Major, am I wrong?....bad news... photo courtesy weatherbellmodels/Ryan Maue yup that's a minimal cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 There's a long line of storms 'blowing up' in the eastern gulf (Opal, Camille, Charley, Katrina). This doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I am really having hard time believing this storm is going to make it that far west... that is almost identical to the path that katrina took.. the reason i am concerned is all day the storm has been moving more nw than w nw.. this storm is really going to have to pick up pretty much a due west pattern to make that swing in the central gulf.. i'm still thinking to models is going to have big swings today given that the storm pretty much reorganized further north than the model forecast... there is just to much variables for me to take the central gulf track serious... so don't be surprised to see this swing back to the east with that upperlevel low that was sitting off the east coast for pretty much all last week did some work to the west side of the bermuda high pressure.. also beginning today we will have a clearer picture as to what extent the two waaves dropping out of the midwest is going to have on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 yup that's a minimal cat 4 958mb cat 4 is a little high for a CAT 4. Ion't forget Irene was a 962mb TS. However it is cause for concern. We'll see if the if the levees were rebuilt correctly in the last 7 years. Hopefully they work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I feel sorry for whoever has to make the call for emergency status in New Orleans... they have about 48 hours to make a decision... maybe less and quite frankly.. which model or model run do you believe??? They have to make a decision tomorrow morning. It takes 3 days to evacuate the city. They had all the warning in the world for Katrina and still couldn't execute their plan...hopefully they have a better plan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 958mb cat 4 is a little high for a CAT 4. Ion't forget Irene was a 962mb TS. However it is cause for concern. We'll see if the if the levees were rebuilt correctly in the last 7 years. Hopefully they work. Exactly 7 years, Isaac, that'll give you a chill Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 00Z EURO and GFDL are nearly identical....They both make landfall near PNS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Well, the doc has me in some rain. As long as one of them keeps me in mind, I'm content to wait until 0z Monday, for the real skinny. Pretty sure the end of New Orleans isn't at hand. And, by the way, a program I saw a year or so back, was saying the defenses are not near strong enough, tall enough, or complete enough to do much better than last time, so this storm better not find them, if it's big. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sreynolds1977 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Scattered showers, breezy & juicy outside now with winds 15 MPH & gusts to 35 MPH or so. Controlled panic at all the supermarkets yesterday - the water aisles are empty & no C or D batteries or flashlights left. I'm hoping for a TS induced TOR, otherwise this looks like mostly a yawner in my area. Should be more interesting off to the west and in the gulf states later in the week. Stay safe if you are in harms way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 What a switch in the modeling lately. It's always been a question of to recurve, or not? The position of the front and the trajectory of Isaac, but now it looks like all the short range models , RAP, 4km NAM are going west as this comes into their view. Meanwhile last 3 runs of GFS are westerly toward New Orleans. ECMWF is allowing it to curve just east of there near Mobile, then drift north (shows big 5 to 9" rains much of Ala, GA, SC, srn TN/NC). But if GFS is correct, the lions share of rain misses GA, TN Carolinas. Such is forecasting tropical systems, as they are different than traditional cold cyclones we deal with 95% of the year, and all options are always open in a complicated setup. The bad news is that if GFS is right then Isaac will have ample room and time to really deepen through the Gulf...and a CAT 3 is very probable. As always it's best to allow plenty of room for error on TS systems, but when GFS made this switch and consider how well it handled Debby going to Florida, it definitely gives me pause. One more run west and I'd probably pull most of my rain map and scrap it for most of Al, Ga and Carolinas, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 What a switch in the modeling lately. It's always been a question of to recurve, or not? The position of the front and the trajectory of Isaac, but now it looks like all the short range models , RAP, 4km NAM are going west as this comes into their view. Meanwhile last 3 runs of GFS are westerly toward New Orleans. ECMWF is allowing it to curve just east of there near Mobile, then drift north (shows big 5 to 9" rains much of Ala, GA, SC, srn TN/NC). But if GFS is correct, the lions share of rain misses GA, TN Carolinas. Such is forecasting tropical systems, as they are different than traditional cold cyclones we deal with 95% of the year, and all options are always open in a complicated setup. The bad news is that if GFS is right then Isaac will have ample room and time to really deepen through the Gulf...and a CAT 3 is very probable. As always it's best to allow plenty of room for error on TS systems, but when GFS made this switch and consider how well it handled Debby going to Florida, it definitely gives me pause. One more run west and I'd probably pull most of my rain map and scrap it for most of Al, Ga and Carolinas, TN. 06z GFS held serve. With most models trending toward the GFS, this appears to be a likely strike from NOLA to Mobile at this point. With the trough possibly missing Isaac, I honestly see no reason for the western solutions to recurve as the heights rebuild and block any east movement. So really, we're left with two camps with narrowing choices. The AL/MS/LA hit is likely to continue west of north, especially if Isaac continues at such a fast pace in the next 36 hours. The FL/AL hit still somewhat shown by the Euro could still happen, but even the Euro ENS supports the GFS moreso than its own operational. I really don't see what would cause the Euro to go north and then slowly drift NNE. Do you know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Looks like NOLA and MS is certainly the target areas. Good job of the GFS to sniff the change out. I know its not set in stone yet, but man....this could get really ugly for them out there. I will say this, if it does take a track out there like the GFS is showing now, its pretty dang close to what the euro WAS showing, and I, admit, was thinking it was wrong and would correct east. The tropics will make you learn very quickly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Rain shield hasn't changed too much from the HPC this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Looks like NOLA and MS is certainly the target areas. Good job of the GFS to sniff the change out. I know its not set in stone yet, but man....this could get really ugly for them out there. I will say this, if it does take a track out there like the GFS is showing now, its pretty dang close to what the euro WAS showing, and I, admit, was thinking it was wrong and would correct east. The tropics will make you learn very quickly.... Pretty funny the euro and gfs completely switched roles...after a dozen runs of the gfs showing the eastern or even furthest east solution, and everyone of the euro runs were showing the western solution for days. I think a lot depends on how deep/strong this gets in the gulf..as a deeper system should turn more north since it's likely a deeper/stronger system is more influenced by the trough to the north. GFS, for example, doesn't get this system very strong, despite it being in very favorable conditions. Given how crappy it looks right now, with no convection around it's center, maybe it's right. (edit, actually in the last hour or two, convection is firing pretty close to the center finally) But between some dry layer and interaction still with cuba, it isn't too terribly surprising right now. Euro on the other hand looks a bit stronger. But despite the recent west trends on the models (and it should be noted quite a few of the tropical models are based on the gfs, so naturally they are going to shift west also), I'd still not take it to the bank it goes so far west. However, we are in that time frame that sudden shifts are going to become less likely. I would think in 24 to 36 hours we will know for sure. But this is why you NEVER get excited about nhc forecast tracks, model tracks, and model rainfall amounts, etc so far in advance. Because more often than not when you are in the bullseye 4 or 5 days out, you are in for a big disappointment. Rain shield hasn't changed too much from the HPC this morning. It will be interesting to see their updated reasoning about this based on the further west track by the nhc, which they base this off of mainly. If it takes the gfs/far west path, it would be hard to believe such high amounts would fall in ga and especially the carolinas. However, one thing is for sure, it will be MUCH better for someone to be on the east side of this system than even a little bit west of it. The models, despite their change in path, continue to show a very sharp and dramatic cutoff in rainfall totals immediately to the west of the system. Euro and nam for example, where they show virtually nothing happening in ms..despite a track through central or even west central al. Also notice the paltry amounts in eastern MS by hpc..even though the new track is through eastern ms... while areas to the east fair much better on the euro, nam, and by hpc. Even if this storm takes a path in western alabama or eastern MS, If dry air wraps around this system a lot, the main feeder band could set up much further to the east, sometimes by hundreds of miles. Maybe this is the basis for their reasoning but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 The cone is big... defiantly a growing danger in New Orleans now. GFS is known to be conservative on the intensity to some degree. I would look at a intensity model for strength. Starting to doubt my inland track north-eastward. Could easily go westward. But could also trend eastward. Got to be patient these next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Wow what a shift in the last 12-18 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 ^ I believe the entire BAM suit of models are initialized off the GFS. Not saying they are wrong, but they typically won't be shifting east if the GFS is going west. Not sure about the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Wow what a shift in the last 12-18 hrs! Again, keep in mind a lot of those are based or partially based on the gfs...and since it's so far west, they are going to naturally be far west also. That's not to say they are not wrong, just something to keep in mind. I'm always hesitant to go against the euro so much. Just like I was hesitant to do so when it was showing the far west track..and like I am since it's showing a track through Al. If the 12z euro comes in much further west, then I think it's safe to say it's a good bet this thing is heading much further west than earlier thought. How ironic the euro would have had it right 5/6 days in advance and being such an outlier at the same time. Besides the obvious lack of rainfall from this system such a track would give us, which would suck beyond words, what also would suck beyond words is all we will hear about is New Orleans, New Orleans, New Orleans. Ugh. After katrina, I never want to even hear that city and hurricanes in the same sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I don't want this storm to devastate anywhere,and I hope it remains weak in the gulf.I was really hoping it would give Ga and the Carolinas a good soaking though.even if it goes that far west,is there any chance the moisture moves east eventually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Track shifts westward...keep in mind EURO is 300miles east of the GFS. Confidence is lower than normal beyond 2 days according to the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Again, keep in mind a lot of those are based or partially based on the gfs...and since it's so far west, they are going to naturally be far west also. That's not to say they are not wrong, just something to keep in mind. I'm always hesitant to go against the euro so much. Just like I was hesitant to do so when it was showing the far west track..and like I am since it's showing a track through Al. If the 12z euro comes in much further west, then I think it's safe to say it's a good bet this thing is heading much further west than earlier thought. How ironic the euro would have had it right 5/6 days in advance and being such an outlier at the same time. Besides the obvious lack of rainfall from this system such a track would give us, which would suck beyond words, what also would suck beyond words is all we will hear about is New Orleans, New Orleans, New Orleans. Ugh. After katrina, I never want to even hear that city and hurricanes in the same sentence. I will start with a disclaimer I have lived in New Orleans for a time in my life. I have many friends and family who still live there and the city has a special place in my heart and always will. Betsy was also a monster storm but didn't do to NOLA what Katrina did. It's all about the angle in which it comes in and the center's location at landfall. I believe Katrina would have been worse for NOLA had it made landfall slightly farther west. I think due to the modeling still keeping Isaac displaced east of a direct hit on NOLA is not getting me too upset yet. It would take the perfect thread the needle track and conditions to destroy NOLA again. I hope Isaac can stay away from a track in between Katrina and Betsy. I believe a middle ground of these two tracks would result in maximum devastation. I don't see Isaac doing that but who knows. As for the track and what it does to mby I can't be too happy but not too upset yet. A track father west could still provide many inches of rain for mby but I'm looking for the big jackpot this time with a 8"+ event. I was talking to my best friend last night and we both agreed last nights HPC forecast was a dream and would be epic and not a forgotten event. We are both pulling for the 12" monsoon they were calling for here, but in reality we both know we could get the shaft big time. Betsy 1965 Katrina 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I don't want this storm to devastate anywhere,and I hope it remains weak in the gulf.I was really hoping it would give Ga and the Carolinas a good soaking though.even if it goes that far west,is there any chance the moisture moves east eventually? If the GFS is right there is no way this moisture gets anywhere remotely close to this area. I'm afraid now that we are headed for a dry and warm to hot Sept and early October with many areas possibly not seeing a drop of rain for 5-6 weeks or more in GA and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Watching the GFS roll... good grief does it ever get off the LA coast this run? geeze. EDIT: This run of the GFS has landfall on Wednesday morning early and then by mid day Thursday is just CRAWLING the coast towards Texas then he runs to Dallas by Friday night. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 If the GFS is right there is no way this moisture gets anywhere remotely close to this area. I'm afraid now that we are headed for a dry and warm to hot Sept and early October with many areas possibly not seeing a drop of rain for 5-6 weeks or more in GA and the Carolinas. I still think we will see rain in the GA/AL area even if Isaac moves into MS or LA. And also a big tornado threat like we saw with Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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