jshetley Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The 18z GFS takes the storm well west now and is no big deal at all for any of SC, NC. most of GA and even North and east Al. It's LA and Miss's storm all the way on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The 18z GFS takes the storm well west now and is no big deal at all for any of SC, NC. most of GA and even North and east Al. It's LA and Miss's storm all the way on this run. It may take the GFS until tomorrow morning to shove it back eastward according to the National Weather Service in Mobile. See one of my posts above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 The 18z GFS takes the storm well west now and is no big deal at all for any of SC, NC. most of GA and even North and east Al. It's LA and Miss's storm all the way on this run. The windshield wiper forecasting is in full effect. I can see rain / wipe / no rain! / I can see rain / wipe / no rain! GFS east / 12z / GFS is west/ 0z / Euro and GFS is west / 18z / GFS is way west, Euro stalls, NAM is over OBX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Nasty...anyway, tonight's GFS run will be the one to watch. Defiantly have to stay up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 HPC increasing rainfall amounts...good 6-12 across western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Here is the 15z Sref which only goes out to 87 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 HPC increasing rainfall amounts...good 6-12 across western NC. :stun: That would be unbelievable if it were to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 25, 2012 Share Posted August 25, 2012 Justin, we'd need 5 gal buckets for gauges I hope you listened to me and put water wings in the trunk I'd love to see it go right into Appalachicola Bay and up the Flint to us. Tonights 0z will be interesting. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 HPC increasing rainfall amounts...good 6-12 across western NC. Ok...time to get that book from my friend Tyler....Ark Building For Dummies.....sheesh...12 inches of rain......unbelieveable!!! Someone tell me.....that this is like the DGEX snowfall accumulation map.....and is Waaaayyyy overdone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Ok...time to get that book from my friend Tyler....Ark Building For Dummies.....sheesh...12 inches of rain......unbelieveable!!! Someone tell me.....that this is like the DGEX snowfall accumulation map.....and is Waaaayyyy overdone.... They typically are overdone. But this is a tropical system we are dealing with, so all bets are off. If it takes the right path, then this looks possible IMO. I remember them being overdone several times when they thought a wetter pattern would set up. But this is a future hurricane we are dealing with. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 They typically are overdone. But this is a tropical system we are dealing with, so all bets are off. If it takes the right path, then this looks possible IMO. I remember them being overdone several times when they thought a wetter pattern would set up. But this is a future hurricane we are dealing with. Big difference. Agree, it's not the same. 20" totals are fairly common with slow moving decaying tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Been out all day. Just checked the latest guidance(computer models) coming out and a slew of them are showing the Track of Doom for New Orleans. A southeast to northwest moving major hurricane would throw the mother of all surges at those angles. Katrina was more south to north/NE and stayed just to the right as it made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 NCSNOW, i just made the same comment on the main forum regarding storm surge and the track being perfect to maximize it. A potentially strengthening CAT 3 would be horrible at that angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yep most of them clustered right at New Orleans while we probably now stay dry and maybe also heat back up well into the 90's. The models can change back i guess but I think this system will leave all of the Carolinas and most if not all of GA dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yep most of them clustered right at New Orleans while we probably now stay dry and maybe also heat back up well into the 90's. The models can change back i guess but I think this system will leave all of the Carolinas and most if not all of GA dry. Don't be too quick to write this one off...... As most on here have said, don't live and die by each model run. Although I do feel that the precip maps are a little over-done, I still think it is possible to get flooding rains in the drought-stricken areas. Let's see what this thing does once it is clear of the land interaction. Also, the strength/size of the storm will play a roll in its final track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Don't be too quick to write this one off...... As most on here have said, don't live and die by each model run. Although I do feel that the precip maps are a little over-done, I still think it is possible to get flooding rains in the drought-stricken areas. Let's see what this thing does once it is clear of the land interaction. Also, the strength/size of the storm will play a roll in its final track. +1 Couldn't have said it any better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 This could really wreck Friday Night Football next week if the HPC's maps end up even being remotely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 FWIW the 11 pm official track from the NHC is pretty much the same. Any significant chances would occur after getting a look at the 0z model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 NCSNOW, i just made the same comment on the main forum regarding storm surge and the track being perfect to maximize it. A potentially strengthening CAT 3 would be horrible at that angle. Yea is shaping up to be a pick your poisin situation. 1) Gas will be going up for all of us next week regardless. (2) and (3) are dependant on the intensification that takes place over the next 48-72 hours. I give this storm a 70% chance of becoming a cat 3+. The only thing standing in its way is the possibility of more than projected land interaction with south Florida. Outside of that theres plenty of fuel (warm sst) and little to none shear forecatsed. So eitheir you get the landfall in North Florida (pensacola area) and track up through GA/Carolinas which could cause major flooding issues or it does the unthinkable and hits LA from the southwest. There is an episode that was produced and scheduled to air on TWC "It could happen tomorrow" documentary. Had scientist from LSU and so forth explaining how the levees would be breeched form a major hurricane coiming in at a sw angle, basically pushing lake pontchartrain into New Orleans. The episode was set to air I think the season Katrina hit. If you can dig it up it's worth a view. Lake pontchartrain is like a 630 square mile saltlake right above NOLA. easy to see something pushing all this water down to a city sitting in a bowll below sea level the ramifications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 I don't ever recall a tropical system managing to dance around all these land areas (Puerto Rico / Dominican Rep / Cuba / Florida mainland) as well as this one...bad luck for the folks on the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Trying to get my bearings straight NCSNOW, but you mention a storm approaching Orleans from the SW, but you mean approaching from the SE, right (i.e. Isaac approacing from the SE)? Also, for the water from Lake Pontchartrain to move into Orleans, I would think the worst track would be for the storm center to track just to the NE of Orleans, whereby N / NW winds would move the water into the city. Regardless, a major hurricane hitting Orleans is bad from any angle given all the low land there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Still early in the run, but 00Z GFS seems to be going west... Watch out New Orleans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yep, Isaac's going west. Ga's out of the heavy rain threat at this point. The trough is too fast and passes to the north before Isaac gets close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Just, WOW!! I know it's only a model's depiction, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Yep, Isaac's going west. Ga's out of the heavy rain threat at this point. The trough is too fast and passes to the north before Isaac gets close. Will it not eventually curve to the east or northeast or will it just keep going north or northwest and end up in North Dakota ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 That's it as far as I'm concerned. Looking for a hot dry week here now. And if this fall is like 2005 we are in for over a month of very dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 New Orleans and greater Louisiana get pummeled in this run. Isaac is still hovering just to the SW of NO at hour 90 with pressure down up to 981 986. (Hard to read the numbers with the contour lines so close together.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 Will it not eventually curve to the east or northeast or will it just keep going north or northwest and end up in North Dakota ? It should get picked up in the next trough, but being that far west, it isn't going to bring much to our area except a typical afternoon enhanced convection pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 This run makes me wonder if we will see that $6 gas price now? Geeze. Given the angle that Isaac would go in at and at that strength... that would be bad for N.O. very, very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted August 26, 2012 Share Posted August 26, 2012 This run makes me wonder if we will see that $6 gas price now? Geeze. Given the angle that Isaac would go in at and at that strength... that would be bad for N.O. very, very bad. Ah, they will be fine. I'm sure they've reinforced their defenses. Gas is going to be a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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