BullCityWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 19, 2012 Author Share Posted August 19, 2012 If you look through the GFS ensembles, it definitely shows up in more than a few frames. It might be the most interesting threat we've had all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 19, 2012 Author Share Posted August 19, 2012 on a side note, i'm going to edisto beach for a week starting 9/2...this thing wouldnt piss in my cheerios if it just dissapated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 340 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Fish or Caribbean. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Fish or Caribbean. Bank it. With such sound reasoning and logic behind this post combined with YOU saying so, I have no reason even to look at this thread any longer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Fish or Caribbean. Bank it. Headline: WIDREMANN PREDICTS HURRICANE TO HIT OUTER BANKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Fish or Caribbean. Bank it. Caribbean. A few days ago models were showing a major off the OBX heading to New England. Now, the intensity forecasts are much weaker. Could be a Gulf threat way down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 If you look through the GFS ensembles, it definitely shows up in more than a few frames. It might be the most interesting threat we've had all year. Robert says in ten days it will be somewhere in the southeast for landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 94L has an appointment with Shreaderolla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 94L has an appointment with Shreaderolla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Fish or Caribbean. Bank it. Well, the odds are certainly in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Well, the odds are certainly in your favor. Why do you think I make statements like I do? If they weren't in my favor, I wouldn't be saying the things I do. For example, most days around here are sunny or partly cloudy. Calling for that instead of rain is generally a good bet. Most storm lines fall apart before refiring over the sandhills and coastal plains. It's usually a safe call to bet against storms right in the Triangle, outside of abnormal scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Looking at the 0Z GFS, got what looks to me a like a tropical storm near Key West at 168 on the verge of getting stronger and moving WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 GFS does not try to pick things up like I thought it would past Day 7...regardless, just looking at synoptics, there is a decent tropical cyclone in the Eastern GOM by Day 9 moving slowly toward the Panhandle/Mobile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 GFS does not try to pick things up like I thought it would past Day 7...regardless, just looking at synoptics, there is a decent tropical cyclone in the Eastern GOM by Day 9 moving slowly toward the Panhandle/Mobile... and make landfall in the big bend of Florida at 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Yep...that ridge magically splits Day 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Why do you think I make statements like I do? If they weren't in my favor, I wouldn't be saying the things I do. For example, most days around here are sunny or partly cloudy. Calling for that instead of rain is generally a good bet. Most storm lines fall apart before refiring over the sandhills and coastal plains. It's usually a safe call to bet against storms right in the Triangle, outside of abnormal scenarios. See, Jon? Brilliance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 0-384hr prog from 06Z Global Fantasy System Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 20, 2012 Author Share Posted August 20, 2012 That's a decent jump north on a majority of the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 12z GFS so far through 168 no stark difference...has the system just south of Hispanola and then cutting across Cuba and picking up some steam west of the Keys by Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 12z GFS and Euro both very similar in the track of 94L...Euro is about 24 hours slower in terms of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Anybody else got thundershowers in their forecast for Monday. Thats most likely to be associated with future Issac. Yes I know its TWC and they go by the GFS and it will change many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Widre has a point. A lot has to go just right (wrong) to get a storm into the Gulf or Southeast. Probability is on the side of fading it. Right now we might enjoy predicting the development and initial track. Does it follow that TUTT to the northwest or does the Bermuda High keep it south for now? I think the latter. Far as the Southeast goes, it is a tough target believe it or not. Earlier this year a strong ridge suppressed into Mexico. Now we have nada ridge now which allows recurve at the western edge of the Bermuda High. Sure Southeast ridge is forecast to return a little next week. Well actually just not a trough - not sure I call that a ridge. Without a "just right ridge" storms tend to either stay south or recurve. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 RAH gives it a slight mention in this afternoon's AFD THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST APPEARS TO REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD (EARLY NEXT WEEK). AT THIS POINT...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES ON THU-FRI...FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Caribbean. A few days ago models were showing a major off the OBX heading to New England. Now, the intensity forecasts are much weaker. Could be a Gulf threat way down the road. oh dear...not good. I have been watching this for days...first time I believe the EURO has strengthened it this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 TD #9 has formed and its quickly getting organized...I still think this is going to be a big ticket item for the Gulf of Mexico. This morning's global model runs still dispute just how quickly the ridge will break down north of TD 9... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 That thing goes into the Gulf like the Euro suggests (and I actually think that is the more likely solution at this point with the ridge strengthening and expanding westward with time) and we could see some serious potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro would not be good to Tampa. so much for the RNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Just going to go ahead and say it and get it out of the way. As already said by a few staff members on the general discussion board, since this has the potential to effect the RNC, *no one* is to bring politics into this discussion..either in this thread or the banter thread. We are very strict about political stuff being posted on the weather side, so I'm just giving you a heads up it won't be tolerated. With that out of the way, it sure would be nice to have a classic east GOM can/panhandle hit and up through the southeast path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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