Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Verification stats available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Verification stats available? IEM shows reports but you'd have to thumb through each I suppose and not sure that's the best way? Tornado verification would be easier since there are far fewer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Interesting chart. I wonder what it was like in 1986. Must have been one hell of a storm for those few warnings lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Interesting chart. I wonder what it was like in 1986. Must have been one hell of a storm for those few warnings lol Anything before Doppler is artificially low. Though overall it at least appears there are more warnings issued now than there used to be. However at least since I've been here it sort of matches perception of storminess IMO... 2011 weighted early of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 an excellent illustration of warning fatigue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Anything before Doppler is artificially low. Though overall it at least appears there are more warnings issued now than there used to be. However at least since I've been here it sort of matches perception of storminess IMO... 2011 weighted early of course. Training and adjustment to verification has also gotten better since doppler was installed. There's bound to be an adjustment period after it initially gets installed and that may take awhile since the sample of storms isn't huge every year. Also spotter verification is much better than it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 More volitile atmosphere. Lots of particulites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 It would be intresting to plot that with number of storm reports in the CWA and see if they follow the same trend lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 It would be intresting to plot that with number of storm reports in the CWA and see if they follow the same trend lines. Sounds like a project for Geiger's Quant class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 What year did they stop with the County-based warnings and go with the more specific location-based warnings? That could be part of the reason for the rise. Instead of one warning for an entire county, now there are often 2+ warnings for a given county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Sounds like a project for Geiger's Quant class. Hush, Your getting me thinking. I'm still on summer break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2012 Author Share Posted August 20, 2012 It would be intresting to plot that with number of storm reports in the CWA and see if they follow the same trend lines. You'd probably want some way to not count multiple reports per warning. I haven't really thought it through... Seems like a bigger task than I want to take on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Storm-Based Warning Era numbers for LWX Tornadoes. Unofficial basedon my own research, yet very close.Year, Warnings, Tornadoes:2008: 36-10 18-112009: 13-5 10-52010: 31-3 4-32011: 96-33 42-332012: 43-12 15-13Total: 219-63 89-6563 Warnings verified out of 219, and 65 tornadoes hit outof 89. Only 1 tornado reached EF-2 strength (Shenandoah4/28/11). 71% FAR and 73% POD may seem good, especiallyconsidering national averages, but having 156 false alarms ina period of 5 years is a problem. Several of the 63 warningsverified had either zero lead time or were after the touchdown,but still counted based on the tornado still occurring at thetime of warning issuance. 88 of the 89 tornadoes were EF-1or weaker in strength, with many doing damages equal todownbursts. In some instances, the public did not evenknow a tornado had happened until the survey was performeddue to the underwhelming nature of the damage done.The event of 6/1 this year was a good example as to how thenumber of false alarms of recent years affected the public.Several people thought that the event was over-warned basedon the lack of damage in the region. I guarantee all of thosepeople did not realize 10 of 23 warnings verified on that day.Hopefully, when another La Plata happens, the public will beready to listen to the warnings issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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