Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I haven't started sticking yet, whereas the coast is starting to stick. Not sure why. Because the low levels are too warm & you need high VVs overhead to bring down the heavy stuff & cool the surface. There is a band forming from C NJ & south which is the deform zone imo. If it doesn't get past philly it's ball game for Philly & west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 looking at 18Z NAM the models really flubbed with this event. i knew my gut telling me that it would take a real powerhouse storm to provide enough cooling to support a real snow event. It's nice to see some flakes flying, but I have to think Mt Holly should remove all of the WSW from the board b/c and just place WWA's for the rest of the night with generally trace to maybe some 2" amounts in areas. I'll make sure they consult you before issuing their products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Because the low levels are too warm & you need high VVs overhead to bring down the heavy stuff & cool the surface. There is a band forming from C NJ & south which is the deform zone imo. If it doesn't get past philly it's ball game for Philly & west Yup. That was well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'll make sure they consult you before issuing their products I wasn't baashing them for issuing warnings Mr. Moderator. I was saying that based off what has transpired and what appears to be left of the event they should remove the warnings. What's wrong with that? My post was clearly directed at the models performance not the NWS. Thanks for the rib though it was obviously well deserved (rolls eyes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 My feelings have drastically changed over the past hour here. I'm thinking its game over time for ABE/Lehigh Valley and points N + W. Have fun Jersey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I wasn't baashing them for issuing warnings Mr. Moderator. I was saying that based off what has transpired and what appears to be left of the event they should remove the warnings. What's wrong with that? NWS has started to chip away at the WWA's in NE PA and are lowering amounts in the lehigh valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NWS has removed the WSW's. So Mr. moderator sir does my previous post look so stupid now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NWS has removed the WSW's. So Mr. moderator sir does my previous post look so stupid now? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I am perfectly fine if this busts here, less cleanup, and i need new tires on my car, just cant afford them this week, maybe in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Yes. To each his own sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I am perfectly fine if this busts here, less cleanup, and i need new tires on my car, just cant afford them this week, maybe in 2 weeks. i just wanna see a snowflake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 i just wanna see a snowflake I want at least an inch of slop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 It was directed at both the main thread and this thread. See the post directly above this one? That kind of stuff really annoys me. Eh, IMO it's OK with me in a banter thread. Naso much in the obs or storm discussion threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I want at least an inch of slop! their is your inch of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 their is your inch of slop Thats less then an inch of slop sorry, lol. but it is slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 their is your inch of slop lol no lies, that actually doesn't look half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 At least I'll be able to golf on Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The Norlun feature is what will give us the enhanced snowfall tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowtrain Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 At least I'll be able to golf on Sunday! +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Precip is beginning to backbuild into Eastern PA finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellice Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The mainstream media has finally gone weather-wild, maybe not quite as much as this place, but I never thought I'd see so many features about weather. The Star-Ledger has a live blog going, and the television stations all have observers up and down the Jersey Shore a la Jim Cantore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 What is the point of the NAM model srs? It makes big changes <24 hours away from an event. It's a joke of a model. /rant. This was the worst modeling I've ever seen. - From a jealous philly brah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The dew points this morning were a clear indicator of where the snow wouldn't make it points west. Again I feel bad for goomba and Tamaqua but it's been the trend since the winter of 2010 for jersey to actually get more snow than nw mountains bc of the sharp gradient and the strength of the systems. The stronger a coastal the sharper the gradient it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The dew points this morning were a clear indicator of where the snow wouldn't make it points west. Again I feel bad for goomba and Tamaqua but it's been the trend since the winter of 2010 for jersey to actually get more snow than nw mountains bc of the sharp gradient and the strength of the systems. The stronger a coastal the sharper the gradient it seems. I don't understand. Dewpoints were just as low in Sussex (FWN) and Montgomery (MGJ) yet they are getting plenty of snow right now. It had nothing to do with dewpoints and everything to do with the simple fact the storm developed a bit further east than anticipated by some guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The dew points there were in the teens this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 They never rose here at all. And ray, this is about the 4-5th storm in a row that has jack potted nj rather than the mountains and nw. The radar echoes just got eaten alive as they went west today. Even though we were forecasted to get 1-2 this morning it was clear the precip shield would not make it west. I'm curious why this trend is so prominent recent years. You're prolly right by the actual low a bit further east, but it's odd looking at so many storms that fail to give the folks 78-81 corridor anything. I'm not complaining just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Sub 990's are becoming over rated ;-) As much as this sucks, we have to remember this is early November. Bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 They never rose here at all. And ray, this is about the 4-5th storm in a row that has jack potted nj rather than the mountains and nw. The radar echoes just got eaten alive as they went west today. Even though we were forecasted to get 1-2 this morning it was clear the precip shield would not make it west. I'm curious why this trend is so prominent recent years. You're prolly right by the actual low a bit further east, but it's odd looking at so many storms that fail to give the folks 78-81 corridor anything. I'm not complaining just curious. But Jim, it has nothing to do with the dry air eating the precip and everything to do with the fact the dynamics all ended up a bit east. And yes, those spots I mentioned were in the upper teens this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Sub 990's are becoming over rated ;-) As much as this sucks, we have to remember this is early November. Bonus snow. It'll be gone by tomorrow or Friday anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121108%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_372_500_vort_ht.gif&fcast=372&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&cycle=11%2F08%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes 384 hr 0z GFS mega block! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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