Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 108 LF in E LI/Conn...OP about 100 miles E at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GEFS also showing 3"+ rain in many locations for SE PA/NJ/DE even this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So far 0z runs have LI now in in the middle of the path if we blend the GFS/GEFS/UKMET/GGEM/NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 0z early track guidance shows CNJ as LF location...only 4/13 push it past 70 W and two of those go OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Oops...just noticed I was posting in the wrong thread Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I guess for internal regions of the CWA a S NJ landfall and LI landfall doesn't make too much of a difference...people along the coast are probably going to pull their hair out looking at the spread of the 0z models if Euro stays consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HWRF going bonkers with a 930 mb low at 36 N and 69.8W by hour 90... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like 923 mb at 38 N and 71W by 102...curving back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 108 still at 923mb and gunning for LBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I guess for internal regions of the CWA a S NJ landfall and LI landfall doesn't make too much of a difference...people along the coast are probably going to pull their hair out looking at the spread of the 0z models if Euro stays consistent Actually I think it still makes a difference inland, the strongest winds will probably be north and east of the landfall point while the heaviest rains will be south and west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Actually I think it still makes a difference inland, the strongest winds will probably be north and east of the landfall point while the heaviest rains will be south and west of there. I didn't really think we would see anything more than moderate TS winds regardless...something like 40-50 kt sustained even if we had LF in SNJ or DE whereas LI would give us something like 25-35 knot sustained. Anyways...HWRF by 114 looks like it made LF in LBI and is resting at the DE/PA border at 928mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL and ECM rolling...should be fun for the morning crew at Mt. Holly if ECM stays west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy looks pretty bad on IR...shear taking its toll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I didn't really think we would see anything more than moderate TS winds regardless...something like 40-50 kt sustained even if we had LF in SNJ or DE whereas LI would give us something like 25-35 knot sustained. Anyways...HWRF by 114 looks like it made LF in LBI and is resting at the DE/PA border at 928mb That might not seem like a big deal, but 40-50 knots sustained hasn't happened... at least in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL/HWRF/ECM all pretty intense with Sandy earlier on...ECMWF at hour 24 has 944 mb low while GFS shows 976 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That might not seem like a big deal, but 40-50 knots sustained hasn't happened... at least in my memory. Oh yeah I understand that, but to me it seemed like 15 knots here or there won't matter when the ground is receiving 4"+ of rain...but then again you get paid for this so you know better Of course max gusts would be different depending LF location so there's that too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL by hour 96 is showing 927 mb and approaching MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFDL by hour 96 is showing 927 mb and approaching MD Looks like LF by 102 in MD/DE as a 927mb/928mb black hole on Raleigh's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Looks like Euro between 72 and 96 makes LF in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Clearly on the fast and less loopey lonesome side of guidance Something funny going on with its early intensity forecast too. Smells hinky to me... We'll see what the ensembles show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlweather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FWIW FIM makes landfall near NYC, moves SW to PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Euro SLAMS Delmarva.... position almost identical to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Clearly on the fast and less loopey lonesome side of guidance Something funny going on with its early intensity forecast too. Smells hinky to me... Yeah 944mb just 24 hours from now seemed kinda weird as I thought Sandy was to weaken a bit over the next day. But as you say, the Euro is faster so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah 944mb just 24 hours from now seemed kinda weird as I thought Sandy was to weaken a bit over the next day. But as you say, the Euro is faster so who knows. Wonder what NHC is gonna do about this. Euro is well ahead of all other guidance in terms of timing with only the NOGAPS close when it makes landfall at 90. GFDL around 102 is 12 hours behind not to mention GFS/GEFS/UKMET/GGEM around 1.5+ days behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I counted down to 934 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 OC MD gets close to the 70 knot winds but despite the low pressure, it doesn't look like anyone gets hurricane force winds, at least to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 OC MD gets close to the 70 knot winds but despite the low pressure, it doesn't look like anyone gets hurricane force winds, at least to my eyes Same with GFDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Two camps emerged from the 0z suite...ECM/LOLGAPS/GFDL/HWRF and GFS/GEFS/GGEM/UKMET with GGEM almost completely on its on with a NS hit and recurve to Maine First camp significantly stronger in the beginning seems to be the most noticeable thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Late cycle hurricane models guidance showing anywhere from MD to LI...4 head to LI, 1 to LBI, and 1 to MD. Official track is right in between those last two. http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2012/al182012/track_late/aal18_2012102600_track_late.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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