MGorse Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the 925 mb winds from the 18z GFS. It has 70-80 knots across the Delmarva Monday night with 45-65 knots elsewhere. 85-95 knots from Long Island to Boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 You guys are mean.... I thought I asked a formidable question that didn't sound too weenish.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The word has defiantly gotten out in Coastal NJ.. Just got back from my local Family Dollar and people were buying batteries and candles like crazy !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 You guys are mean.... I thought I asked a formidable question that didn't sound too weenish.. I thought it was a good question, I was asking about winds this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 School closing possibilities for this teacher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 School closing possibilities for this teacher? Depends on where you teach. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The word has defiantly gotten out in Coastal NJ.. Just got back from my local Family Dollar and people were buying batteries and candles like crazy !! I have to imagine some of that has to do with the fact of how often jersey got rocked by tstorms this year. Definitely nice to have a contained buzz by the general public about the storm this far in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Look on the bright Side, if the power goes out, you don't have to worry about 80degree nights with 70dp's ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 You guys are mean.... I thought I asked a formidable question that didn't sound too weenish.. It was a good question. Irene is going to be what everyone compares this to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 adam really needs to brush up on his winter/noreaster events...hopefully we can start that this winter. You icep*ssies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It was a good question. Irene is going to be what everyone compares this to Yea... I should have re worded that a little bit. I know the snyoptic set up is a whole other beast, just wasn't sure if the same problems can exist in these type of set ups as an irenish type. Nice job on the radio by the way. All you guys. I like the troll who asked "annular or derecho?" HHS dn you guys hung up ASAP. That was funny. Lol. Speaking of Irene, people around here are saying " another Irene" in a laughing kinda matter. It's annoying... Can't wait to work the firehouse night works mon-tues-wed 3p-7a. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I have to imagine some of that has to do with the fact of how often jersey got rocked by tstorms this year. Definitely nice to have a contained buzz by the general public about the storm this far in advance. for all of the forced cynicism about Irene....a lot of people did lose power....and a lot of people at least knew nearby communities that went some time without it. Also, I think in general there is more respect amongst year round shore residents for Noreasters than for pure hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yea... I should have re worded that a little bit. I know the snyoptic set up is a whole other beast, just wasn't sure if the same problems can exist in these type of set ups as an irenish type. Nice job on the radio by the way. All you guys. I like the troll who asked "annular or derecho?" HHS dn you guys hung up ASAP. That was funny. Lol. Speaking of Irene, people around here are saying " another Irene" in a laughing kinda matter. It's annoying... Can't wait to work the firehouse night works mon-tues-wed 3p-7a. :-) Bri, what was the answer to your question? What kind of wind speeds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 for all of the forced cynicism about Irene....a lot of people did lose power....and a lot of people at least knew nearby communities that went some time without it. Also, I think in general there is more respect amongst year round shore residents for Noreasters than for pure hurricanes. Yeah the whole IMBY attitude of those people from Irene....including my friends....was very irritating. We got a generator before Irene and I'm hoping we are lucky enough not to use it again. Hoping none of the 250+ year old trees on my street decide to blow over since they still have most if not all of their leaves on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Bri, what was the answer to your question? What kind of wind speeds? Tom, Adam answered. I asked if we would have less than stellar mixing if the winds as with Irene in some parts. Adam thinks the pressure is overdone a bit, but said because this is a strength if transitional storm and not weak, better mixing, more mix downs. No wind speeds were given, but they said they could def see good mixing from 850-925 to the surface. Obviously, strength and track are a huge factor here. Models are forecasting 60-90kt jets around this system, so, quite impressive. They did say, on second thought, they could see 60knt gusts in the region. Sustained maybe 30-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just cause its the banter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 By the way, Orh_weatherman from SNE brings up a good point: In reference to what the height of 925mb is: "It normally like 2500 feet...but this time its about 1500, lol. Heights are so low with the sfc pressure getting down so far. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Tom, Adam answered. I asked if we would have less than stellar mixing if the winds as with Irene in some parts. Adam thinks the pressure is overdone a bit, but said because this is a strength if transitional storm and not weak, better mixing, more mix downs. No wind speeds were given, but they said they could def see good mixing from 850-925 to the surface. Obviously, strength and track are a huge factor here. Models are forecasting 60-90kt jets around this system, so, quite impressive. They did say, on second thought, they could see 60knt gusts in the region. Sustained maybe 30-40. alright, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dankil13 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Any thoughts on if and when potential warnings would be issued for our area? I called US Air trying to switch my Tues AM flight to Sunday but they won't waive the change fees ($150*5 = $750) unless an advisory has been posted. My kids are supposed to be trick-or-treating with Mickey Mouse on Tues night. I can't book separate one way flights (which would only cost me $90/ticket) because if I don't take the 1st leg of my original flight my return trip would be cancelled. I assume any warnings will be posted tomorrow night or Sat which won't give me a lot of time to make alternate plans.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Just cause its the banter... nice! one of my all-time favorite movies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Radio show= ultimate GFS jynx! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Radio show= ultimate GFS jynx! Lol This!! radio show ftw this thing will officially be a fish storm lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GFS...I grow weary of your games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If it makes you feel any better (or worse depending on your perspective), the LOLGAPS isn't having any of it...steadfast with SNJ landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 0z UKMET at 72 looks like it would be on the easterly envelope of the 12z guidance and looks pretty similar to the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GGEM also making a wide hook pattern and actually brings mixed precip to the poconos from hr 112 to 120...Sandy approaching Maine at 945 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Tough to see what happens between 96 and 120 of UKMET but my guess is that it follows the GFS with almost a due west heading into LI/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Through 72 GFS Ensemble mean in great agreement with OP...could be a touch N actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Through 84 GEFS is a little deeper but pretty much in the same spot as the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 GEFS through 96 probably 50 miles W/WNW of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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