Parsley Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 That system down in Texas appears to have a rather winter-like development pattern ahead of it... without the cold air, of course. Yup, and a solid cold shot arrives next weekend. Frost on the pumpkins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 That system down in Texas appears to have a rather winter-like development pattern ahead of it... without the cold air, of course. was thinking the same thing. Very Miller Aish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 One can't look at todays 12z gfs out towards day eight and not think winter, and october 1979 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Winter is Coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Winter is Coming... Dont know about the low, but the GFS has been consistent for several days about the cold. Maybe mid-30s at KPHL. That's pretty impressive given that far out climiatology gets a big weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Winter is Coming... 12z Euro has a similar look heading toward day 10 (and extrapolating thereafter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 12z Euro has a similar look heading toward day 10 (and extrapolating thereafter). you can thank the huge pos pna and somewhat of an north atl ridge to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 you can thank the huge pos pna and somewhat of an north atl ridge to. Now, if it can only hold that pattern another 45 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Now, if it can only hold that pattern another 45 days or so. the pacific looks good, but the atlantic side of things is meh. No real blocking at all. You can see the cold shots come in and then move out. Nothing to lock and load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 29, 2012 Share Posted September 29, 2012 Dont know about the low, but the GFS has been consistent for several days about the cold. Maybe mid-30s at KPHL. That's pretty impressive given that far out climiatology gets a big weight. Not in the raw model data. You're thinking of the extended MOS (MEX). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Nice write up by earthlight here: First we have a few warm days, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Dont know about the low, but the GFS has been consistent for several days about the cold. Maybe mid-30s at KPHL. That's pretty impressive given that far out climiatology gets a big weight. It won't be *that* cold at PHL (urban heat island will counteract a lot of that) but I can see 30's in the burbs at night IF the GFS verifies. you can thank the huge pos pna and somewhat of an north atl ridge to. Typhoon rule FTW. You've got a typhoon coming up through Japan that's pumping up a PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Anyways, there's a pretty marked departure between the GFS and EURO for next Sat and Sun -- the Euro is much less intense on the GFS on the strength of the trough and also is much less progressive than the GFS (not surprising as Euro holds back some energy in the Rockies). It's a pretty anomalous trough (as the GFS has it) so I kinda think the GFS is overdoing things a fair bit on strength. Timing might be closer to reality than the EC because of that energy hang back. I wouldn't be surprised if we get 30's outside of the cities on Sunday morning...perhaps frost to Quakertown, East Nantmeal, and the usual suspect places that can get frost early. Philly probably can heat island enough to stay in the 40's pretty safely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 30, 2012 Share Posted September 30, 2012 Anyways, there's a pretty marked departure between the GFS and EURO for next Sat and Sun -- the Euro is much less intense on the GFS on the strength of the trough and also is much less progressive than the GFS (not surprising as Euro holds back some energy in the Rockies). It's a pretty anomalous trough (as the GFS has it) so I kinda think the GFS is overdoing things a fair bit on strength. Timing might be closer to reality than the EC because of that energy hang back. I wouldn't be surprised if we get 30's outside of the cities on Sunday morning...perhaps frost to Quakertown, East Nantmeal, and the usual suspect places that can get frost early. Philly probably can heat island enough to stay in the 40's pretty safely. the euro ens mean though is closer to the gfs, so definitely some model wars going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 its starting to feel tropical out...glad I left the AC window units in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 its starting to feel tropical out...glad I left the AC window units in. just thinking the same thing, almost took them out last weekend but held out because it looked so warm WED, bedroom AC will definitely be going on tonight ran 3 miles at lunchtime & was completely drenched, only saving grace were the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 just thinking the same thing, almost took them out last weekend but held out because it looked so warm WED, bedroom AC will definitely be going on tonight ran 3 miles at lunchtime & was completely drenched, only saving grace were the clouds Our Central Air unit failed on my wife and I here at the house almost 3 weeks ago, and its just horrible here humid and all. its nearly 80 inside most of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Morning action? Hi res nam 0z NAM says to watch out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Looks like Sunday could be first wood stove day with rain and temps in the 40's. Thinking the forecasts for upper 50's are overdone. I prefer that to high humidity, 70's and stinkbugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 ah, nice to be back to beautiful nighttime weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 ah, nice to be back to beautiful nighttime weather... Agreed 40s/50s at night is perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Agreed 40s/50s at night is perfection. That's all summer out here! Now I've got 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 That's all summer out here! Now I've got 20s. No thanks....not til December What a crazy climate out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 No thanks....not til December What a crazy climate out that way. One day last January, the low was 3... then the high was 56. No fronts involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 One day last January, the low was 3... then the high was 56. No fronts involved. Elko diurnals are epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 One day last January, the low was 3... then the high was 56. No fronts involved. Ray, of all your picture taking, have you ever snapped shots all around Elko itself, like the neighborhood where you live, schools and downtown? I'm curious. I think you've posted a few pics. in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Solid FROPA this afternoon. North winds ushering in the chill now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 First time is has the feeling of fall weather for me in NW NJ. Strong breeze blowing with chilly temps. May get a fire going later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 down to a chilly 48F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 So will tomorrow be our first -10 departure in awhile? Highs may struggle to exceed 50F for most of SE PA. In fact we may have a midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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