Cape Verde Blues

[HurricaneJosh]

This is a resurrection of an Eastern thread I created a while ago...

It's cool that 94L might be our first major of the year, and I'm not trying to be an ingrate, but...

I'm reminded tonight how difficult it is to track Cape Verde long-trackers. It's such an emotional investment, and the experience usually ends with a heartbreaking recurve into the open Atlantic-- like flirting with someone in a bar all night and then getting dissed at closing time.

The first Cape Verde system I ever tracked was in 1985. Imagine my amazement when the center of this big hurricane passed directly over my town on Long Island, NY, eleven days after forming as a depression off Africa. That was Gloria. I've never had such golden luck with a Cape Verde system since-- and that was over twenty-five years ago. So I guess a side of me just expects CV 'canes to be heartbreakers.

I hope 94L can break the curse that's held since 1985-- but I never bank on it.

[HurricaneJosh]

To show how rare the big payoff is...

Here's the consolidated product of my and Jorge's (wxmx's) research from a while ago-- the complete list of known Cape Verde cyclones that made landfall in the USA as major (Cat-3+) 'canes, including categories for states experiencing max impact and landfall intensities. As you can see, there just ain't that many for the last century and a half:

1893 #6 Sea Islands - GA3, SC3 (954 mb/100 kt)

1893 #9 --- - SC3 (955 mb/105 kt)

1899 #3 San Ciriaco, Outer Banks - NC3 (945 mb/105 kt)

1915 #2 Galveston - TX4(N) (940 mb/115 kt)

1928 #4 Lake Okeechobee - FL4(SE) (929 mb/125 kt)

1938 #4 Long Island Express - NY3, CT3, RI3, MA2 (940 mb/105 kt)

1947 #4 Fort Lauderdale - FL4(SE) (940 mb/115 kt)

1960 Donna - FL4(SW) (930 mb/115 kt)

1979 Frederic - MS3, AL3 (946 mb/115 kt*)

1980 Allen - TX3(S) (945 mb/100 kt)

1989 Hugo - SC4 (934 mb/120 kt)

1992 Andrew - FL5(SE) (922 mb/145 kt)

1996 Fran - NC3 (954 mb/100 kt)

2004 Ivan - AL3, FL3(NW) (946 mb/105 kt)

Re: the above list, some notes:

* These are all systems that became cyclones E of 40W.

* We used the NHC's official landfall list: http://www.aoml.noaa...Hurricanes.html

* The period from 1936 thru 1979 has not been reanalyzed-- therefore, the listed landfall wind speeds are from the latest reputable research papers but are not yet officially approved values. Therefore, this part of the table is colored.

* I excluded hurricanes that will probably get downgraded below Cat 3 in reanalysis, based on papers by reputable researchers-- i.e., Chris Landsea, etc. An example would be Connie 1955, which probably was not a major hurricane at landfall in NC. I also excluded Gloria 1985 based on recent research which suggests winds of 95 kt at landfall in NC (Cat 2) and 75 kt at landfall in NY (Cat 1).

* The best-track wind speed for Frederic 1979 at landfall (115 kt) would make it a Cat 4-- however, it's listed as Cat 3. This discrepancy needs to be resolved in reanalysis.

* I'm sure there were probably at least a few more examples from the pre-satellite era-- i.e., cyclones that actually did form E of 40W but weren't detected until later and therefore don't show up in HURDAT until they're W of 40W. For example, the Galveston 1900 storm was probably a Cape Verde 'cane, but it wasn't detected until W of 40W.

[Ed Lizard]

I dropped this link ( http://www.ssec.wisc...l_2010_JofC.pdf ) in the thread a few hours after your mild disagreement w/ PSUBlizz.

For qualiity over quantity, you are clearly a Cluster 4 fan. Landfall bang for the buck on the Gulf Coast, is cluster 2, which often have less than purely tropical origins. Cluster 3, your CV storms, would be the potential NYC/SNE super thread storms. Like maybe 94L around Labor Day...

[icebreaker5221]

I get what you're saying, that it's very unlikely during any particular season to get a CV major hurricane landfall along a U.S. coastline, but I don't think it needs to be for to not be considered at tease. Plenty of the storms you mentioned, as well as any other numerous CV cat 2 landfalls (and even cat 1 landfalls) are still a "hit" and would probably be the highlight of the season. As your Ernest chase demonstrated, even a cat 1 (2?) landfall can still be very exciting and generate some great video. Then there are also the occasion Deans that don't make your list but I don't think anyone would consider it just a tease.

[toad strangler]

Ice, Josh will be much more amiable after gets his true perfect scenerio chase fix. He says he won't but I bet he will!

[HurricaneJosh]

I dropped this link ( http://www.ssec.wisc...l_2010_JofC.pdf ) in the thread a few hours after your mild disagreement w/ PSUBlizz.

For qualiity over quantity, you are clearly a Cluster 4 fan. Landfall bang for the buck on the Gulf Coast, is cluster 2, which often have less than purely tropical origins. Cluster 3, your CV storms, would be the potential NYC/SNE super thread storms. Like maybe 94L around Labor Day...

Sorry-- missed this yesterday. Yeah, absolutely, I am a Cluster 4 dude!!

I get what you're saying, that it's very unlikely during any particular season to get a CV major hurricane landfall along a U.S. coastline, but I don't think it needs to be for to not be considered at tease. Plenty of the storms you mentioned, as well as any other numerous CV cat 2 landfalls (and even cat 1 landfalls) are still a "hit" and would probably be the highlight of the season. As your Ernest chase demonstrated, even a cat 1 (2?) landfall can still be very exciting and generate some great video. Then there are also the occasion Deans that don't make your list but I don't think anyone would consider it just a tease.

Agreed with everything you write here-- absolutely.

I'm not trying to diss CV cyclones; I just wanted to show that the ultimate payoff-- a major USA landfall-- isn't as common as people think.

But, yeah, this list doesn't necessarily reflect what I personally find interesting. Since I specialize in Mexico and the deep tropics, my ultimate-payoff list would look a little different. And like you said, smaller 'canes-- like Ernie-- can be totally, totally cool. I wubbed Ernie more than some of the bigger, more newsmaking 'canes I've chased.

[Drz1111]

I'm not trying to diss CV cyclones; I just wanted to show that the ultimate payoff-- a major USA landfall-- isn't as common as people think.

From the perspective of ~35N and north, CV cyclones are the best chance, by far, for a major landfall (indeed, probably the only chance with some very rare exceptions), and also the best chance for any landfall at all. Given that ~50m people live up here, on a population adjusted basis I think CV cyclones get precisely the attention they deserve - that is to say, a ton.

Even the perfectest tight core Carribean cyclone has a reasonable chance of coming ashore on some empty beach, blowing around nothing but the palms and the sea turtles. I'm not sure if thats materially different than a fish storm, other than from the hyper-tunnel-vision focus of the one dude who's often standing on that empty beach.

[HurricaneJosh]

From the perspective of ~35N and north, CV cyclones are the best chance, by far, for a major landfall (indeed, probably the only chance with some very rare exceptions), and also the best chance for any landfall at all. Given that ~50m people live up here, on a population adjusted basis I think CV cyclones get precisely the attention they deserve - that is to say, a ton.

Incorrect.

Carol 1954 and Edna 1954-- some of the only known majors in the Northeast USA in the 20th Century-- were not Cape Verde hurricanes.

Additionally, other important-- but non-major-- Northeast USA impacts were not Cape Verde hurricanes: the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, Belle 1976, and Bob 1991.

To cap it all off: the 1938 hurricane is the only known Cape Verde hurricane to hit the USA N of 35N as a major.

Even the perfectest tight core Carribean cyclone has a reasonable chance of coming ashore on some empty beach, blowing around nothing but the palms and the sea turtles.

Huh? The Yucatan and other shores of the Caribbean have towns and roads just like the Gulf Coast of the USA. Many people are affected. The entire world does not revolve around American I95ers.

I'm not sure if thats materially different than a fish storm, other than from the hyper-tunnel-vision focus of the one dude who's often standing on that empty beach.

It is.

[Drz1111]

Incorrect.

Carol 1954 and Edna 1954-- some of the only known majors in the Northeast USA in the 20th Century-- were not Cape Verde hurricanes.

Additionally, other important-- but non-major-- Northeast USA impacts were not Cape Verde hurricanes: the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, Belle 1976, and Bob 1991.

To cap it all off: the 1938 hurricane is the only known Cape Verde hurricane to hit the USA N of 35N as a major.

Huh? The Yucatan has towns and roads just like the Gulf Coast of the USA. Many people are affected.

It is.

I disagree with your characterization of the Great Atlantic Hurricane as not Cape Verde, and I'd also disagree (though less vigorously) with the same re: Edna. "first detected" is not the same as "formed", You're rationalizing. Most non CV Hurricanes up here are of the Bob/Belle variety, which don't hold a candle to the impact of a mature, decaying, CV cyclone.

Additionally, the population density in the Yucatan and Carribean coast of Central America is order (orders?) of magnitude less than on the NE Coast of the USA. I can spend the 15 minutes to pull the data if you insist, but your argument is so silly that I think we can just stipulate that you're pulling at strings.

[HurricaneJosh]

I disagree with your characterization of the Great Atlantic Hurricane as not Cape Verde, and I'd also disagree (though less vigorously) with the same re: Edna. "first detected" is not the same as "formed", You're rationalizing. Most non CV Hurricanes up here are of the Bob/Belle variety, which don't hold a candle to the impact of a mature, decaying, CV cyclone.

You can't bend statistics to fit your perspective. There are all kinds of events that might have happened-- but we can't assume they happened just because they fit a narrative that we want to believe. I'm sure there was some hurricane before 1900 that was stronger than Wilma-- but Wilma holds the crown because it's the strongest known.

Perhaps the Great Atlantic might have been a Cape Verde, if you extrapolate the track back-- but it still wasn't a major in the Northeast USA. Extrapolating Edna's track back does not suggest it definitely formed near the African coast.

Again, the 1938 storm is the only known Cape Verde hurricane to hit the Northeast USA as a major. Your perception-- that Africa offers by far the best possibility of a Northeast major-- is not supported by the data.

[Normandy]

Any non-CV orgin point (Gulf, Caribbean) would make it difficult for any storm to actually reach the NE. The one exception would be a storm forming in the Bahamas and getting pulled north. Other than that the recurve cyclones have the best shot IMO. As far as getting a major in the NE, thats nearly impossible and happens once every generation if that. CV or not.

[HurricaneJosh]

Most non CV Hurricanes up here are of the Bob/Belle variety, which don't hold a candle to the impact of a mature, decaying, CV cyclone.

Gloria was a mature, decaying CV cyclone. Bob was not-- it was a Bahamian brew.

I am pretty sure that residents of RI and MA's Cape Cod-- who got off easy with Gloria but raked by Bob-- would strongly disagree with your characterization here.

[HurricaneJosh]

Any non-CV orgin point (Gulf, Caribbean) would make it difficult for any storm to actually reach the NE. The one exception would be a storm forming in the Bahamas and getting pulled north.

But that's not the exception-- that is where a lot of Northeast USA hurricanes come from-- for example, Carol 1954, Belle 1976, and Bob 1991. Furthermore, Hazel 1954, although it matured in the Caribbean, came from that direction (essentially N from the Bahamas). The Bahamian brews are actually one of the more fertile varieties for Northeast hurricane lovers.

[am19psu]

I like how this guy is trying argue with Josh about hurricane climatologies. Josh has forgot more than most of us know about the history of the Atlantic Basin.

[Ginx snewx]

But that's not the exception-- that is where a lot of Northeast USA hurricanes come from-- for example, Carol 1954, Belle 1976, and Bob 1991. Furthermore, Hazel 1954, although it matured in the Caribbean, came from that direction (essentially N from the Bahamas). The Bahamian brews are actually one of the more fertile varieties for Northeast hurricane lovers.

Agree 100%, the once in a lifetime Cane from wherever is what worries us all.

Josh thought you might like this.

http://www.geo.brown.edu/georesearch/esh/QE/Publications/GSAB2001/JDonnelly/Succotash/Succotach.pdf

[Normandy]

But that's not the exception-- that is where a lot of Northeast USA hurricanes come from-- for example, Carol 1954, Belle 1976, and Bob 1991. Furthermore, Hazel 1954, although it matured in the Caribbean, came from that direction (essentially N from the Bahamas). The Bahamian brews are actually one of the more fertile varieties for Northeast hurricane lovers.

I see, I figured there would be a lot of Bahama-Brew northeast strikes. Seems like prime position for strong canes to form and strike the SNE. In general though I do agree that CV storms are teases (I really never take them seriously if they are forecast to miss the Caribbean islands N).

[Ed Lizard]

I see, I figured there would be a lot of Bahama-Brew northeast strikes. Seems like prime position for strong canes to form and strike the SNE. In general though I do agree that CV storms are teases (I really never take them seriously if they are forecast to miss the Caribbean islands N).

Not a major, but we had a CV storm that passed through the Southern end of the Bahamas chain (well, Turks and Caicos) and still made landfall near here a few years back. Only Cat 1 sustained winds at the house per local NWS office graphics, which was plenty enough for me, actually, seemed like it might never stop. Noisy. Things hitting the house. Which made me think poorly of a poster in the main tropical thread who was bemoaning a lack of US hurricane activity since 2005 and scoffed at my mention of Gustav as a post 2005 storm. Let him experience sustained Cat 3 or Cat 4 winds at his house...

A CV storm that had to head South of due West to hit the Greater Antilles is an odd one, however.

[Normandy]

Well obviously Ike is a huge exception. Im not even sure there has been a hurricane that has taken a track like that in our records. Is there?

[Drz1111]

You can't bend statistics to fit your perspective. There are all kinds of events that might have happened-- but we can't assume they happened just because they fit a narrative that we want to believe. I'm sure there was some hurricane before 1900 that was stronger than Wilma-- but Wilma holds the crown because it's the strongest known.

Perhaps the Great Atlantic might have been a Cape Verde, if you extrapolate the track back-- but it still wasn't a major in the Northeast USA. Extrapolating Edna's track back does not suggest it definitely formed near the African coast.

Again, the 1938 storm is the only known Cape Verde hurricane to hit the Northeast USA as a major. Your perception-- that Africa offers by far the best possibility of a Northeast major-- is not supported by the data.

it is absolutely supported by the data, in the satellite era, which is significantly more relevant when we're talking about track.

[Drz1111]

I like how this guy is trying argue with Josh about hurricane climatologies. Josh has forgot more than most of us know about the history of the Atlantic Basin.

Not to appeal to authority or anything, but, I've got pieces of parchment hanging on my wall that make me pretty comfortable arguing about climatology.

[HurricaneJosh]

it is absolutely supported by the data, in the satellite era, which is significantly more relevant when we're talking about track.

Your claims were incorrect. I showed you why with hard examples from the reanalyzed, accepted data sets. I don't know what else to say here.

[HurricaneJosh]

Agree 100%, the once in a lifetime Cane from wherever is what worries us all.

Josh thought you might like this.

http://www.geo.brown...h/Succotach.pdf

Ah, I've heard about this study. Pretty cool-- I've got to delve into this. Thanks!

I see, I figured there would be a lot of Bahama-Brew northeast strikes. Seems like prime position for strong canes to form and strike the SNE. In general though I do agree that CV storms are teases (I really never take them seriously if they are forecast to miss the Caribbean islands N).

And that was all I was trying to say. Thank you.

[Ed Lizard]

Not to appeal to authority or anything, but, I've got pieces of parchment hanging on my wall that make me pretty comfortable arguing about climatology.

Curious, what is the degree in?

[Ed Lizard]

CV does produce some awesome looking fish storms. There are fish, and then there are fish w/ good satellite presentations.

[HurricaneJosh]

Not to appeal to authority or anything, but, I've got pieces of parchment hanging on my wall that make me pretty comfortable arguing about climatology.

That piece of parchment doesn't in any way invalidate the accepted tropical-cyclone landfall dataset.

[HurricaneJosh]

CV does produce some awesome looking fish storms. There are fish, and then there are fish w/ good satellite presentations.

Do you think that's so awesome-looking? Outflow is restricted to the W and it's got a big, ragged eye.

[Ed Lizard]

Do you think that's so awesome-looking? Outflow is restricted to the W and it's got a big, ragged eye.

Outflow is always restricted to the West once they are solidly recurved. Anyway, I just Googled up Cindy, because I had internet by then, slow loading dialup, and that was my first cool looking satellite fish. Like your first new car. 5 minutes or more to download satewllite loops...

Did you like the satellite on Cat 5 Isabel? I'm just checking Wiki, w/ multimple images, and even the Cat 2 landfalling Isabel looks pretty nice to me. Outflow into Canada, that looks sweet.

Matter of taste, I suppose.

[Drz1111]

That piece of parchment doesn't in any way invalidate the accepted tropical-cyclone landfall dataset.

Oh, it's accepted! In that case.

The accuracy of the pre satellite dataset is directly proportional to the distance from land of the supposed storm track. Appealing to the "accepted" dataset for records in the central tropical Atlantic is meaningless handwaving.

The other technique you use is to define CV so narrowly as to exclude storms that everyone else thinks of as being Cape Verde.

[am19psu]

Oh, it's accepted! In that case.

The accuracy of the pre satellite dataset is directly proportional to the distance from land of the supposed storm track. Appealing to the "accepted" dataset for records in the central tropical Atlantic is meaningless handwaving.

The other technique you use is to define CV so narrowly as to exclude storms that everyone else thinks of as being Cape Verde.

Are you really marginalizing the work of Landsea and the best track committee?

[HurricaneJosh]

Oh, it's accepted! In that case.

Yes, it's HURDAT-- the official, reanalyzed data set. Do you have a better source?

The accuracy of the pre satellite dataset is directly proportional to the distance from land of the supposed storm track. Appealing to the "accepted" dataset for records in the central tropical Atlantic is meaningless handwaving.

But the accepted dataset-- the one officially produced by the NHC-- is all we have to work with. We can't make stuff up.

If you don't want to talk history, then we can talk only the last 50 years. Your claim would again be incorrect, even if we only use satellite-era data.

The other technique you use is to define CV so narrowly as to exclude storms that everyone else thinks of as being Cape Verde.

Huh? I didn't define it narrowly-- I used the generally accepted definition for CV hurricane, which is what this thread is about.