skierinvermont Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Because of year to year variability, the fairest way to measure it is to look at the 5 year moving average. So compare the 5 year moving average in 2002 to now and you'll get about .05C/decade warming for an average of the global temp sources. A 5 year moving average is not as effective at ignoring noise as linear regression. As we have discussed previously and fairly recently, the underlying ENSO-neutral trend remains around .1C/decade. Also, 2000-2004 was more +ENSO than 2008-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 A 5 year moving average is not as effective at ignoring noise as linear regression. As we have discussed previously and fairly recently, the underlying ENSO-neutral trend remains around .1C/decade. Also, 2000-2004 was more +ENSO than 2008-2012. I'm not referring to trends that remove ENSO. You were making the argument that the slowdown/flatline in global temp rise over the past decade or so can be explained almost entirely by solar activity. That means there is no reason to remove ENSO from the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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