Where we're at, where we're going

[keggwx]

The more recent GFS bias tells the story.

Bingo. And with persisting -PNA...good luck GFS.

[Road Runner]

1) Gray?

2) Oh God that terminology again! Is the "Nor'easter potential is most likely" part just part of your theory, or do you have other evidence of it being better on Dec. 11th?

In reference to the Nor'easter near 12.11.10...

Evidence, of course I have evidence. You and I are observing the evidence. How does one experiment? The evidence is in the pasts trends/observations and in the future model guidance. The original-most recent call issued on November 12th, 2010 puts forth December 11th, 2010 as a possible date for a nor'easter. Why is this a feasible date for a nor'easer? Because my other dates based on my theory have been verifying very well. The 24th nor'easter potential/ arctic chill is verifying in terms of an arctic chill and winter weather advisory out west. The call for a warm-up on the 25th/26th is verifying on the models ahead of a cold front. The call for a strong front and potential severe weather on November 30th/December 1st is also on all the most recent ECMWF/GFS runs. The call for a pattern changer/ upper level Low/ MJO induced "storm" near December 3-4th is on the latest GFS runs as well. Now what is next is the leading wave and the nor'easter/arctic potential.

Looking at how the pattern changer or how any prior event behaves is important in every pattern (I have forecasted). The pattern changer according to the models is to move over the Lakes near the 12.4-12.5.10 timeframe, I am fairly confident from past instances that there will be a nor'easter for this next period (given such a track). Also, The warm-up for this next cycle starting roughly on the 25-26th is very interesting. It starts with a sudden burst of advection across much of the East (on the 25-26th) and then the WAA settles into the South (moving from the TX region). Now what I assume is that the warm-up does play a part in showing us how the nor'easter will behave. With that said, I assume that there might be a storm that brings warm air to the area before the nor'easter (prior to the 11th of December), but the nor'easter itself (which will come later) will transverse across TX and into the Southeast states, and then move up the coast with cold air in place (along a stalled cold front possibly). It might be different of course but will be interesting to see how this latest addition to my theory adds up.

...It might also be that both storms move near the East Coast and out to sea, which is what the models are showing currently for 12.9-12.11.

This includes my recent call that has been posted on EUSWX on 11.12.10 (and has not been edited since):

November 12th, 2010

Confidence High to Moderate

Unfortunately we are back to the testing phase since my data is still off by 1 day. So I will have to discontinue my forecast and reissue it, and I will focus my attention on the cold front/ severe weather event. We will go slowly and when I have more time, presumably during the winter break, I will issue my official discussion and my extended forecast.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Current and Future Dates Reissued on November 12th, 2010

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

1) Warm-up for the East: Oct.23/ Nov.9/ Nov.25-26/ Dec.12/ Dec.26/

[ This period might feature above average temperatures ]

2) Prefrontal Severe Weather & Cold Front: (NEW!) Oct.27-28/ Nov.14-Nov.15/ Nov.30-Dec.1/ Dec.14-15/ Dec.30-31/

[ Test Case Result: La Niña induced Severe Weather Threat, which can occur with the prefrontal one day before the cold front]

3) Upper Low or Pattern Changer: Oct.30/ Nov.17/ Dec.3/ Dec.17/Jan.2/[/s]

[ Test Case Result: MJO induced Nor'easter]

4)Initial Upper Wave & Surface Cold Front: Nov.4/ Nov.22/ Dec.8-9/ Dec.22/

[ Test Case Result: Leads to a stalled surface front with precipitation in the vicinity ]

5)*Significant Trough & Arctic Chill/ Nor'easter Potential: Nov.6-7/ Nov.24/ Dec.10-11/ Dec.24-25/

[ Test Case Result(s): Arctic Chill and Clipper Like System(s); Nor'easter development has occurred ]

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

1. Side Notes:

The nor'easter potential is highest for event number 5 (coming out of event # 4), but the nor'easter potential can occur with The Pattern Changer (event number 3). The most recent example of event number 3 is the MJO induced nor'easter, and last year we had two nor'easters back to back(which were exactly seven days apart and equal to my selected spread between event number 3 and event number 5).

2. Important Key:

BOLD indicates the current cycle and dates

The color Greenindicates the previous call(s), which were issued on:

10/11/2010,

3. Verification for the Past Calls:

WORK IN PROGRESS

Each event or cycle will...

*State the difference between the first event and when the event was forecasted (e.g., difference between the warm-up (Oct.23) and the initial date of call (10.11.2010))...one number

*Did the main events in each pattern occur and did they occur in such a sequence (e.g., Did the warm-up event occur?... Did the cold front come through afterwards?... etc.)...one binary (yes or no)

*If the event occurred, what is the difference between the FORECASTED date and the REAL date...one number

*Proof of the event occurring (e.g., upper air maps archive, temperature composites...etc.)...data file

1. The October 11th 2010 Call--Containing the Nor'easter potential of 11.6-11.7, 2010.

This forecast was made twelve days from the REAL warm-up date:

1.Did It Occur? 2.Days Off?

Warm-up: yes, 0

Cold Front:yes, 0

Upper Low: yes, 0

Initial Upper wave/ Cold Front: yes, 0

Arctic Chill/ Nor'easter Potential: yes, 0

Visual Proof:

WILL BE ADDED LATER

2. The November 12th, 2010 Call--Containing the Nor'easter potential of November 24th, 2010

This forecast was made ______ from the REAL nor'easter date:

Wx1996

[tacoman25]

Blocking not wanting to go away yet...

[usedtobe]

Blocking not wanting to go away yet...

Unfortunately for those of us in the MA states, the pattern still leaves much to be desired. The pattern still favors the nina storm track towards the lakes and Oh valley. The favorite analog from the CPC D+11 prog is dec 1955 which ended up a cold, dry month in terms of snow. for the dc area.

[tacoman25]

Unfortunately for those of us in the MA states, the pattern still leaves much to be desired. The pattern still favors the nina storm track towards the lakes and Oh valley. The favorite analog from the CPC D+11 prog is dec 1955 which ended up a cold, dry month in terms of snow. for the dc area.

[usedtobe]

Some time after the 7th, maybe thing will look better. the longer the nao stays negative, the better the chances of getting a storm.

[usedtobe]

I posted this on the M.A. regional forum

[buckeye]

models are definitely biasing towards eastern cold in the longrange.....even the euro..

I had saved the first image on my computer so I could make a post last thursday about how cold it looked to get in the east in 10 days, (this coming sunday). The second image is todays 72 hour forecast for this coming sunday.

a tad different.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

models are definitely biasing towards eastern cold in the longrange.....even the euro..

I had saved the first image on my computer so I could make a post last thursday about how cold it looked to get in the east in 10 days, (this coming sunday). The second image is todays 72 hour forecast for this coming sunday.

a tad different.

crazy difference

[Isotherm]

Unfortunately for those of us in the MA states, the pattern still leaves much to be desired. The pattern still favors the nina storm track towards the lakes and Oh valley. The favorite analog from the CPC D+11 prog is dec 1955 which ended up a cold, dry month in terms of snow. for the dc area.

I'd rather take my chances w/ a cold pattern than not in December. If the pattern remains favorable for cold, we're bound to get snow at some point, although it probably won't come in major amounts like last year. Your area was always at a disadvantage this winter w/ the nern stream dominate and the strong nina. But you can get lucky as well, w/ a storm like Jan 2000.

[Amped]

Oh look it's the Greenland Block SE ridge connection.

Ridges are phasing

[nzucker]

Oh look it's the Greenland Block SE ridge connection.

Ridges are phasing

Wow thanks for posting this...that is a really cool "phase."

It's typical for the -NAO and SE ridge to hook up in the summer, but this isn't something you often see in the cold season. Generally, the SE and Mid-Atlantic have warmer summers in a -NAO pattern due to this phenomenon, but the reverse is true in winter. I guess there's something to screw us at every turn during this La Niña winter

I am starting to notice that the usual characteristics of the -NAO haven't been working out since March 2010. For example, we usually expect eastern Canada to be colder in a -NAO with a strong damming high over Quebec/Ontario, which is ideal for snowstorms. But since March 2010, it seems the NAO blocking is so extreme it's making these areas warmer. I remember during the winter of 08-09 there were pools of cold 850s that would sit over Maine or New Brunswick/eastern Quebec, but that doesn't seem to happen much anymore.

[Road Runner]

In reference to the Nor'easter near 12.11.10...

Evidence, of course I have evidence. You and I are observing the evidence. How does one experiment? The evidence is in the pasts trends/observations and in the future model guidance. The original-most recent call issued on November 12th, 2010 puts forth December 11th, 2010 as a possible date for a nor'easter. Why is this a feasible date for a nor'easer? Because my other dates based on my theory have been verifying very well. The 24th nor'easter potential/ arctic chill is verifying in terms of an arctic chill and winter weather advisory out west. The call for a warm-up on the 25th/26th is verifying on the models ahead of a cold front. The call for a strong front and potential severe weather on November 30th/December 1st is also on all the most recent ECMWF/GFS runs. The call for a pattern changer/ upper level Low/ MJO induced "storm" near December 3-4th is on the latest GFS runs as well. Now what is next is the leading wave and the nor'easter/arctic potential.

Looking at how the pattern changer or how any prior event behaves is important in every pattern (I have forecasted). The pattern changer according to the models is to move over the Lakes near the 12.4-12.5.10 timeframe, I am fairly confident from past instances that there will be a nor'easter for this next period (given such a track). Also, The warm-up for this next cycle starting roughly on the 25-26th is very interesting. It starts with a sudden burst of advection across much of the East (on the 25-26th) and then the WAA settles into the South (moving from the TX region). Now what I assume is that the warm-up does play a part in showing us how the nor'easter will behave. With that said, I assume that there might be a storm that brings warm air to the area before the nor'easter (prior to the 11th of December), but the nor'easter itself (which will come later) will transverse across TX and into the Southeast states, and then move up the coast with cold air in place (along a stalled cold front possibly). It might be different of course but will be interesting to see how this latest addition to my theory adds up.

...It might also be that both storms move near the East Coast and out to sea, which is what the models are showing currently for 12.9-12.11.

This includes my recent call that has been posted on EUSWX on 11.12.10 (and has not been edited since):

In reference to the last call...

The 06z GFS looks promising for our first big snow event.

It has the upper level Low coming together on the 3rd-4th, the preceding event on the 6th-7th, and the nor'easter potential on the 8-9th. I do not like the timing for the last two events (the preceding front and the nor'easter), but I do like the fact that the nor'easter track is coming from TX and up the coast [which is something I have been saying], and I also like the fact that we are ONCE again looking at a separated-closed-off Low at the 500mb. The majority of the nor'easter potentials so far had a closed-off Low at the 500mb. So what the 06z GFS shows is pretty legit and I assume the real threat will be something like this, but the threat may come 1-2 days later (so that may be a problem). Why is this threat 1-2 days earlier on the 06z GFS? What is not happening correctly?

Here is the 06z GFS for possible nor'easter potential:

Going from complete cold [back a few days] to a stormy/cold track [in the latest runs].

Note:

I should definitely add "cut-off Low or closed off Low to one of the test cases for the nor'easter potential" My calls can be found above or on EUSWX.

Also, The warm-up for this next cycle starting roughly on the 25-26th is very interesting. It starts with a sudden burst of advection across much of the East (on the 25-26th) and then the WAA settles into the South (moving from the TX region). Now what I assume is that the warm-up does play a part in showing us how the nor'easter will behave. With that said, I assume that there might be a storm that brings warm air to the area before the nor'easter (prior to the 11th of December), but the nor'easter itself (which will come later) will transverse across TX and into the Southeast states, and then move up the coast with cold air in place (along a stalled cold front possibly)

[usedtobe]

Thought I'd post the a 240 hour comparison of the 00Z euro (top left), 00Z gfs (bottom right), 00Z euro ensemble mean (top right) and 00Z gfs ensemble mean (bottom right).

Not how different the operational models are at that time range over the west and just off the east coast. That should give pause to any getting excited about a 300 hour plus closed low. The ensembles are not saying that such a low is impossible but that there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. The models so far have been way to aggressive in bringing cold air and snow chances to the east despite the warm advection event for some in PA and nrn NJ yesterday. What might happen after the 7th is an interesting question as the one the models seem to agree on two things, one a strong negative NAO and a strong trough developing off the west coast. The ensembles suggest the euro may be overdoing its trough in the west at 240 hours though they do still show below normal heights in that region so it's not a sure call and the euro ensembles don't like how aggressive the gfs is in bringing its low off the east coast. My guess is that the gfs is too aggressive with that feature. Id be more excited over interior new england beyond 240 hours as the pattern seems to favor some type of miller b event but at such a long time range, it's really too early to make any definitive deterministic forecast even for anyone.

[Amped]

Thought I'd post the a 240 hour comparison of the 00Z euro (top left), 00Z gfs (bottom right), 00Z euro ensemble mean (top right) and 00Z gfs ensemble mean (bottom right).

Not how different the operational models are at that time range over the west and just off the east coast. That should give pause to any getting excited about a 300 hour plus closed low. The ensembles are not saying that such a low is impossible but that there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. The models so far have been way to aggressive in bringing cold air and snow chances to the east despite the warm advection event for some in PA and nrn NJ yesterday. What might happen after the 7th is an interesting question as the one the models seem to agree on two things, one a strong negative NAO and a strong trough developing off the west coast. The ensembles suggest the euro may be overdoing its trough in the west at 240 hours though they do still show below normal heights in that region so it's not a sure call and the euro ensembles don't like how aggressive the gfs is in bringing its low off the east coast. My guess is that the gfs is too aggressive with that feature. Id be more excited over interior new england beyond 240 hours as the pattern seems to favor some type of miller b event but at such a long time range, it's really too early to make any definitive deterministic forecast even for anyone.

Odd how the stregnth of the anomolies differs signifigantly from the Euro to GFS, but they are in good agreement on the location.

[usedtobe]

Odd how the stregnth of the anomolies differs signifigantly from the Euro to GFS, but they are in good agreement on the location.

They are on the ensembles but not so much on the two operational models except for the positive anomaly near and just south of greenland and the negative off the west coast. Over the western U.S., the operational models were quite different.

[usedtobe]

The 12Z euro looks interesting for those north of the mason dixon line on Dec 5th as a primary goes to Oh and then a secondary tries to form. It's got a nice block. Of more import for farther south would be beyond 240 hours with a nice low that could act as a 50 50 low and a southern stream shortwave. The big problem still is we're dealing with a 216 hour forecast for dec 5th and a 240 plus hour forecast for any chances in the longer range. Getting the NAO in the right place would be a big plus.

[Ji]

Jb predicts a white Christmas for most of the nation including i95

[Alpha5]

Jb predicts a white Christmas for most of the nation including i95

Then complete torch for Jan/Feb

[tombo82685]

The 12Z euro looks interesting for those north of the mason dixon line on Dec 5th as a primary goes to Oh and then a secondary tries to form. It's got a nice block. Of more import for farther south would be beyond 240 hours with a nice low that could act as a 50 50 low and a southern stream shortwave. The big problem still is we're dealing with a 216 hour forecast for dec 5th and a 240 plus hour forecast for any chances in the longer range. Getting the NAO in the right place would be a big plus.

wes going off the 12z euro, it looks to me that the sheered out oh storm is producing snow or rain to snow in the dc area on north. Granted i can't really see wind vectors on the euro, with the storm placement the way it is, there most likely is a southerly component to the winds albeit may be light, till that coastal takes over. Thicknesses are prob 536, -3 to -4 850 temp, 2m temps is in mid 30s, means nothing really its 210 hrs out but its nice to have something to talk about.

[usedtobe]

wes going off the 12z euro, it looks to me that the sheered out oh storm is producing snow or rain to snow in the dc area on north. Granted i can't really see wind vectors on the euro, with the storm placement the way it is, there most likely is a southerly component to the winds albeit may be light, till that coastal takes over. Thicknesses are prob 536, -3 to -4 850 temp, 2m temps is in mid 30s, means nothing really its 210 hrs out but its nice to have something to talk about.

I hadn't seen the 2m temps. I'm not a fan of miller b type systems here as they usually have some warm air at some level with them due to the initial storm track but I've been surprised before so my inclinations could be wrong. I do like the set up beyond that time but I doubt the look will be the same the next run.

[tombo82685]

I hadn't seen the 2m temps. I'm not a fan of miller b type systems here as they usually have some warm air at some level with them due to the initial storm track but I've been surprised before so my inclinations could be wrong. I do like the set up beyond that time but I doubt the look will be the same the next run.

yea, you guys usually get shafted down in dc area as do we but not as bad. It will be interesting to see the next set of euro runs to see if it holds on to that block.

[usedtobe]

yea, you guys usually get shafted down in dc area as do we but not as bad. It will be interesting to see the next set of euro runs to see if it holds on to that block.

Looks like from Phl to Dca, the euro lost its storm on the 00Z run. Looks like the 1st window might be around Dec 7th or slightly after that based on the euro ensemble mean but it implies a pretty dry pattern south of New England.

[Edge Weather]

Does it look like that one for Dec 7th on the Euro will affect the Mason/Dixon North with wintry weather, or would it ride to the west again or go out to sea after that? I can't really tell based on where it ends at this point? What is your guess?

Looks like from Phl to Dca, the euro lost its storm on the 00Z run. Looks like the 1st window might be around Dec 7th or slightly after that based on the euro ensemble mean but it implies a pretty dry pattern south of New England.

[usedtobe]

Does it look like that one for Dec 7th on the Euro will affect the Mason/Dixon North with wintry weather, or would it ride to the west again or go out to sea after that? I can't really tell based on where it ends at this point? What is your guess?

Still way too early to know, the models have been having a hard time with the pattern so in all likelihood, the 240 hr euro will verify differently than forecast. The euro ensembles certainly are dry in the mid atlantic states.

[Wonderdog]

Wes, does that retrograding low into NE around 240 hrs make any sense to you. Seems like it forces a possible southern storm out to sea around that time.

Still way too early to know, the models have been having a hard time with the pattern so in all likelihood, the 240 hr euro will verify differently than forecast. The euro ensembles certainly are dry in the mid atlantic states.

[usedtobe]

Wes, does that retrograding low into NE around 240 hrs make any sense to you. Seems like it forces a possible southern storm out to sea around that time.

Since no 240 hr prog is likely to be right, I tend not to spend much time really analyzing them as there are a myriad of ways that the models can be wrong at that time range.

[Ji]

Since no 240 hr prog is likely to be right, I tend not to spend much time really analyzing them as there are a myriad of ways that the models can be wrong at that time range.

the models look ugly at best for any chance for snow for us. I am on your bandwagon all year around. Its going to take a miracle to get a significant snow here. You and me are on the same page WES LOL!

[usedtobe]

the models look ugly at best for any chance for snow for us. I am on your bandwagon all year around. Its going to take a miracle to get a significant snow here. You and me are on the same page WES LOL!

Actually, the euro looks interesting at 240 hrs, no snowstorm but plenty cold with a system in the southwest. I don't think there is much chance during the 1st 7 days of dec but beyond that, I wouldn't rule out chances. Remember my guess for the season was 8-14 inches for dca. That's not a total disaster year.

[Cheeznado]

Euro ensemble spread is very wide beginning at 144 hours and by 240 they show almost very possible solution. In other words, we are in a pattern where trying to predict specifics beyond day 4 is pretty much hopeless.