Where we're at, where we're going

[nzucker]

That's true. There may be one more storm that ends up the H.A. signal around December 5th with the 240h storm acting as a 50-50 low.

Too bad this pattern won't happen even a month later.

Do you think the big storm shown on the 12z ECM will be an Archembault type event that turns the NAO/AO positive and allows the strong La Niña to dominate the pattern?

[GaWx]

Do you think the big storm shown on the 12z ECM will be an Archembault type event that turns the NAO/AO positive and allows the strong La Niña to dominate the pattern?

Fwiw, 12z Euro ens. mean for days 11-15 is quite cold for the E US, implying that the block on day 10 of the 12z Euro will, indeed, lead to quite cold air dropping into the E US.

[keggwx]

1) Gray?

2) Oh God that terminology again! Is the "Nor'easter potential is most likely" part just part of your theory, or do you have other evidence of it being better on Dec. 11th?

Miss Cleo said so.

[Dr No]

240 looks like a Miller B setup- pretty discouraging for anyone S of New England given climo. Of course, that assumes the blocking is modeled accurately and that is not really an assumption at all given the time frame. As Wes implies, Dec 5/6 event might be a better opportunity.

At least the pattern is active as opposed to torch or dry.

[usedtobe]

240 looks like a Miller B setup- pretty discouraging for anyone S of New England given climo. Of course, that assumes the blocking is modeled accurately and that is not really an assumption at all given the time frame. As Wes implies, Dec 5/6 event might be a better opportunity.

At least the pattern is active as opposed to torch or dry.

Actaully, I wasn't implying that day, just after 240 hours looks better than before which looks pretty grim. The analog only says if everything works out there would be potential for something in the 11-14 day range or so but even that stiill is probably a reach.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

good to see the models always back off the intensity and duration of chill in the East as we roll forecast periods forward.

[Ji]

looks like JB overyhyped this cold...everything is getting pushed back....disaster disaster

[WinterWxLuvr]

looks like JB overyhyped this cold...everything is getting pushed back....disaster disaster

Doesn't it always?

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

Based on the information I've gathered from this thread, it's either a retrograde NAO or it might as well be positive?

[Dr No]

I don't think things look that bad... why do we need it to be unbearably cold now?

if we can hang onto this blocking as more cold air is available, December is going to be a fun month. December 2-6 already has some potential.

[usedtobe]

looks like JB overyhyped this cold...everything is getting pushed back....disaster disaster

Looks like DT made a pretty good call.

[keggwx]

JB is very cold now through Christmas, no? For the east coast?

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

JB is very cold now through Christmas, no? For the east coast?

DFP?

[mitchnick]

looks like JB overyhyped this cold...everything is getting pushed back....disaster disaster

he did say Thanksgiving to Christmas, so you may be premature with your criticism

we'll see (unless the world ends)

[VAwxman]

good to see the models always back off the intensity and duration of chill in the East as we roll forecast periods forward.

Man, next week is a ton warmer than what models showed back when next mon-fri was in the 11-15 day time frame. All those balls cold model runs, and the period won't be all that far from normal overall in a lot of the east it appears.

[usedtobe]

Man, next week is a ton warmer than what models showed back when next mon-fri was in the 11-15 day time frame. All those balls cold model runs, and the period won't be all that far from normal overall in a lot of the east it appears.

True, the pacific did not change as much as forecast and the nao blocking also ended up being much less spectacular. I wish I had saved some of the D+11 Supensemble means to compare with reality. They would be pretty ugly. I'm not impressed with the upcoming pattern that much. as it looks like even the storm around Dec 5th ought to go north of DC, more like the 06Z run than the earlier ones. We may be flirting with the 60s again early next week.

For those holding out hope for the next day 11 centered mean period. The superensemble does spit out 2 dates with snow inside of period. Dec 5 and 6th 2005 and Nov 25, 1971. Those two dates compare to a probability of around 13% for an inch of snow to occur sometime during the 5 day period though that climo probability may be a little high because of the clump of recent event clustered on Dec 5th. At any rate, despite the analogs, I'm not impressed with the pattern. Oo[s the superensemble mean pattern is centered around Dec 3rd.

[VAwxman]

True, the pacific did not change as much as forecast and the nao blocking also ended up being much less spectacular. I wish I had saved some of the D+11 Supensemble means to compare with reality. They would be pretty ugly. I'm not impressed with the upcoming pattern that much. as it looks like even the storm around Dec 5th ought to go north of DC, more like the 06Z run than the earlier ones. We may be flirting with the 60s again early next week.

For those holding out hope for the next day 11 centered mean period. The superensemble does spit out 2 dates with snow inside of period. Dec 5 and 6th 2005 and Nov 25, 1971. Those two dates compare to a probability of around 13% for an inch of snow to occur sometime during the 5 day period though that climo probability may be a little high because of the clump of recent event clustered on Dec 5th. At any rate, despite the analogs, I'm not impressed with the pattern.

Yeah for awhile models were showing that we could get the big NAO to coincide with a good -EPO for at least a few days, but now looks like that isn't happening so the chill isn't that great. Maybe if we could somehow loop the MJO back around before the NAO weakens we'd be in business, but not sure we can accomplish that.

[BlizzardWx]

The cold moving into the west has been insane. I assume that its penetrating much deeper because things didn't work out as much with some of the indicies which would have made it a northern tier event across the country. As it is now, its a western event. My NWS said that the 700mb temps(my equivilent of 850s) are 4 standard deviations below normal. Looks to continue too. I guess my point in all this is that we have plenty of potential to see blocky weather this winter. Right now, yes, its hitting here but just like in my winter forecast I gave I think that should give the east some nice periods of snow and cold in December.

[WinterWxLuvr]

True, the pacific did not change as much as forecast and the nao blocking also ended up being much less spectacular. I wish I had saved some of the D+11 Supensemble means to compare with reality. They would be pretty ugly. I'm not impressed with the upcoming pattern that much. as it looks like even the storm around Dec 5th ought to go north of DC, more like the 06Z run than the earlier ones. We may be flirting with the 60s again early next week.

For those holding out hope for the next day 11 centered mean period. The superensemble does spit out 2 dates with snow inside of period. Dec 5 and 6th 2005 and Nov 25, 1971. Those two dates compare to a probability of around 13% for an inch of snow to occur sometime during the 5 day period though that climo probability may be a little high because of the clump of recent event clustered on Dec 5th. At any rate, despite the analogs, I'm not impressed with the pattern. Oo[s the superensemble mean pattern is centered around Dec 3rd.

Is that today's pattern, or the modeled pattern of the future? As you stated earlier in the post, the modeling has left a little to be desired. Maybe it's a good thing if the modeled pattern is bad.

[tacoman25]

The cold moving into the west has been insane. I assume that its penetrating much deeper because things didn't work out as much with some of the indicies which would have made it a northern tier event across the country. As it is now, its a western event. My NWS said that the 700mb temps(my equivilent of 850s) are 4 standard deviations below normal. Looks to continue too. I guess my point in all this is that we have plenty of potential to see blocky weather this winter. Right now, yes, its hitting here but just like in my winter forecast I gave I think that should give the east some nice periods of snow and cold in December.

Yeah, there's no doubt there has been impressive blocking thus far. And it has been very effective in delivering cold air to the CONUS...the orientation just hasn't worked out for the East yet.

[dbc]

Is that today's pattern, or the modeled pattern of the future? As you stated earlier in the post, the modeling has left a little to be desired. Maybe it's a good thing if the modeled pattern is bad.

This was my question also and you beat me to it, lol.

[usedtobe]

I think some of both, I don't see the pattern being very good for the next 10 days as the pattern still favors storms going up towards the great lakes. Even beyond 10 days, I'd like ot see more low heights just south or southeast of Nova scotia with some hint that we could establish a 50 50 low. Right now I don't see it but really have not looked at the models all that close as the weather was so warm I went golfing in shirt sleeves.

[Ji]

I think some of both, I don't see the pattern being very good for the next 10 days as the pattern still favors storms going up towards the great lakes. Even beyond 10 days, I'd like ot see more low heights just south or southeast of Nova scotia with some hint that we could establish a 50 50 low. Right now I don't see it but really have not looked at the models all that close as the weather was so warm I went golfing in shirt sleeves.

i would take your fishing trip now and try again next winter

[Dr No]

The one good thing about this pattern persisting into December is the opportunity for waves to develop along the front, as the strong pac energy butts up against the SE Ridge. Might be the case for the Dec 1/2 event. Naturally, getting cold air over the mountains fast enough is always a problem in this area.

Pattern also screams ice as we get deeper into December, and surface cold air is wedged against the mountains for the approach of the lead wave.

[CoastalWx]

The 24 hr trend of raising heights in the EPO region was nice. I'd still be wary of a cutter around 12/5, but models really dump the arctic into Canada again. We'll have to see if this continues, as we know what happened over the last 4 days with the models quickly going back to a more +EPO look.

[WhiteoutMD]

todays 6z GFS is just crazy

[usedtobe]

todays 6z GFS is just crazy

It didn't have much support from its own ensemble members at least for the dec 5-6 storm. The models have been jumping around so much, there is not much to be gleaned from them except that the pattern will be a tough one to call snowstorms much in advance.

[WhiteoutMD]

I am with you on that I think the only thing that can be said now is a step down in temps late next week With storm potential increasing . I favor storm tracks to the west of us for most of the winter and thats not a snow producer for u us.

It didn't have much support from its own ensemble members at least for the dec 5-6 storm. The models have been jumping around so much, there is not much to be gleaned from them except that the pattern will be a tough one to call snowstorms much in advance.

[bluewave]

The more recent GFS bias tells the story.

[Lee]

73-73 is still looking like the best analogue at this point to me. The dominant SE ridge, being tough to be squelched even with a decent block upstream. Strong cold troughs in the NW that weaken and warm dramatically once they finally nudge the Ridge, amongst other similarities thus far. Here's a 500mb snapshot from then.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_reanal-u.cgi?re=namer≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&yy=1973&mm=11&dd=24&hh=12&overlay=no≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&yy=&mm=&dd=&hh=

If this similar progression continues I suspect many of those fantasy MA/SE cold shot/snowstorms will continue to be just that.

There are, of course, some other factors that can and probably will alter the pattern from being even close to the analog @ times but, I'm still thinking it will be the most patterned after.