Where we're at, where we're going

[VAwxman]

Actually, it's really been mostly neutral aside from that one spike in October. See.

MUCH different that saying it has not remotely come close to making a move into 3-4-5 when it has made a massive loop thru 4-5. That's my point.

[nynjpaweather]

MUCH different that saying it has not remotely come close to making a move into 3-4-5 when it has made a massive loop thru 4-5. That's my point.

4-5, yes but not 3, which is why I was questioning. Overall though, when the MJO was near 3 it was weak, and aside from that one period in October, has not repeated since in similar magnitude. Will be interesting if that repeats or if the MJO stays very weak to barely any influence at all.

[HM]

Yes, I know and I'm reading them now.

Here's the disconnect I have here with the reasoning here. The warm signals from the ENSO/Walker Circulation are important. Don't get me wrong. But it appears to me, that you are trying to make this the dominant factor here. For the South, I completely agree. I have my doubts for the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. The signal I'm getting from the tropics, which is the same as yours, but I put less weight on that influence with the NAO factors than it appears you do. That's my contention here.

Southeast, I'm 100% in agreement. Southern Mid Atlantic as well. But I have my doubts on the strength of this influence for the Northern Mid Atlantic and New England. I guess you can throw the Great Lakes in there too. Again, this all revolves around the research I'm doing which is basically standing on the giant that was Landscheidt (2001) research. So that might be the difference here.

Yeah I read that paper a long time ago and use the sun constantly when forecasting. The tropical forcing idea is not the only reason I am going warmer mid-month. And keep in mind, I said December would be best characterized in thirds for the mode of the pattern, so I am not describing the whole month as a blowtorch or even half. I think we see something like we saw in October again in December, potentially aiding in a very warm period. However, it could be an interesting look when this happens because a low anomaly may get left in the Southeast while the northern-tier warms up.

[HM]

4-5, yes but not 3, which is why I was questioning. Overall though, when the MJO was near 3 it was weak, and aside from that one period in October, has not repeated since in similar magnitude. Will be interesting if that repeats or if the MJO stays very weak to barely any influence at all.

The October wave formed in phase 3 and intensified through 4 and 5. Either way, they all have a general theme whether it is phase 3 or 5, for what that means across the CONUS in December.

[nynjpaweather]

Yeah I read that paper a long time ago and use the sun constantly when forecasting. The tropical forcing idea is not the only reason I am going warmer mid-month. And keep in mind, I said December would be best characterized in thirds for the mode of the pattern, so I am not describing the whole month as a blowtorch or even half. I think we see something like we saw in October again in December, potentially aiding in a very warm period. However, it could be an interesting look when this happens because a low anomaly may get left in the Southeast while the northern-tier warms up.

Gotcha.

So I'm assuming you are expecting the same forcing mechanisms of same magnitude as what was seen in October. Interesting idea.

[HM]

Gotcha.

So I'm assuming you are expecting the same forcing mechanisms of same magnitude as what was seen in October. Interesting idea.

It is a very convoluted map overall, which is why I warned that a December monthly temp departure map may look odd this year. Toward the end of the month, I expect a more traditional look.

[tombo82685]

Not sure if any of you guys can help me with this. Is there a website where i can find the break down year by year of the enso state and what the pna and nao were?

[usedtobe]

Not sure if any of you guys can help me with this. Is there a website where i can find the break down year by year of the enso state and what the pna and nao were?

I was thinking of posting in this thread but had gotten tired of the argument so it's nice to be aksed something I can answer.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/

[HM]

I was thinking of posting in this thread but had gotten tired of the argument so it's nice to be aksed something I can answer.

http://www.esrl.noaa...teindices/list/

The polar vortex is strong, huh wes?

[HM]

I meant to ask you nynjpa: what caught your interest about the Landschiedt paper? We had a whole discussion about it in Isotherm's winter outlook thread over at Eastern if you wanted to read more about that sort of thing.

[tombo82685]

I was thinking of posting in this thread but had gotten tired of the argument so it's nice to be aksed something I can answer.

http://www.esrl.noaa...teindices/list/

thank you

[nynjpaweather]

I meant to ask you nynjpa: what caught your interest about the Landschiedt paper? We had a whole discussion about it in Isotherm's winter outlook thread over at Eastern if you wanted to read more about that sort of thing.

Well, to be honest. I've always concentrated on forecasting short and mid range periods but wanted to try to learn long range and seasonal forecasting. So I figure start with the basics, and what's more basic than learning about how the sun influences Earth's climate. I stumbled upon the paper in 2003 and have been trying to dig deeper and learn as much as I could ever since.

[usedtobe]

The polar vortex is strong, huh wes?

It is which isn't too surprising. The strength of the negative NAo has me interested as it's happening without the warming events that helped and prolonged last years historic negative. I remember Don Sutherland's research into when the NAo goes strongly negative and it almost always has a second dip after it relaxes. I think that may save Dec though I'm still on the roller coaster idea for the winter with it gradually warming as we progress though calling the anomalies fo individual months is beyond the pale at least for me. It seems like we've been arguing with nynjpaweather most of the fall. Right now I'm more into trying to figure out the next 10 to 15 days for my CWG gig.

[A-L-E-X]

I was thinking of posting in this thread but had gotten tired of the argument so it's nice to be aksed something I can answer.

http://www.esrl.noaa...teindices/list/

Wes, is there any site which tallies if the predominant nao state was east or west based?  Also, if an east based neg nao is bad does that mean an east based pos nao is good?  Because if we exclude neutral states, and no kind of pos nao is "good" for snow, that means that 75% of nao conditions are bad (if we assume there are equal chances of each kind.)

Snowgoose mentioned that in the past 5 years, we've seen a predominance of east based neg nao (when it is neg) and Im wondering if east based neg nao are more common..... and if its actually worse (for snow) then a pos nao?

[HM]

It is which isn't too surprising. The strength of the negative NAo has me interested as it's happening without the warming events that helped and prolonged last years historic negative. I remember Don Sutherland's research into when the NAo goes strongly negative and it almost always has a second dip after it relaxes. I think that may save Dec though I'm still on the roller coaster idea for the winter with it gradually warming as we progress though calling the anomalies fo individual months is beyond the pale at least for me. It seems like we've been arguing with nynjpaweather most of the fall. Right now I'm more into trying to figure out the next 10 to 15 days for my CWG gig.

But the NAO could do what it did in 2008 where it went sharply negative in early December and then again late Dec/early Jan. Then there was 2005 which went strongly negative late November and slowly climbed its way up through the first half of December. What you are worried about sounds a lot like 2000 where the NAO went negative late NOV/early DEC, went positive for a little bit and then came back negative from 12/20 onward.

I would be inclined to agree with a 2000-like NAO for December if it wasn't for the parameters we have in place this year. I hope you are right that it returns because it would make for some sick patterns.

[ORH_wxman]

But the NAO could do what it did in 2008 where it went sharply negative in early December and then again late Dec/early Jan. Then there was 2005 which went strongly negative late November and slowly climbed its way up through the first half of December. What you are worried about sounds a lot like 2000 where the NAO went negative late NOV/early DEC, went positive for a little bit and then came back negative from 12/20 onward.

I would be inclined to agree with a 2000-like NAO for December if it wasn't for the parameters we have in place this year. I hope you are right that it returns because it would make for some sick patterns.

I don't recall a good -NAO block in early Dec 2008...I do recall a north Atlantic ridge that was transient.

We definitely got a good NAO block though at the end of the month in the first week of Jan.

[HM]

I don't recall a good -NAO block in early Dec 2008...I do recall a north Atlantic ridge that was transient.

We definitely got a good NAO block though at the end of the month in the first week of Jan.

Oh yeah that's right. That was the event that got me started with the whole CPC method thing. So then, in that case, the block never returned in January.

[ORH_wxman]

Oh yeah that's right. That was the event that got me started with the whole CPC method thing. So then, in that case, the block never returned in January.

Right, it never came back in Jan...though it did come back somewhat in early February. But that was 1 month after the initial big block in early Jan.

[HM]

Right, it never came back in Jan...though it did come back somewhat in early February. But that was 1 month after the initial big block in early Jan.

If I knew we could get the Pacific aid like we did in 2005, then I would be happy to say forget any type of warmth the rest of December really. But even that month saw a northern-tier warm up as the month went on. In fact, much of the country turned blazing. That was a very cool month going from coast-to-coast below normal temps to nearly the opposite by the end of the month.

[ORH_wxman]

If I knew we could get the Pacific aid like we did in 2005, then I would be happy to say forget any type of warmth the rest of December really. But even that month saw a northern-tier warm up as the month went on. In fact, much of the country turned blazing. That was a very cool month going from coast-to-coast below normal temps to nearly the opposite by the end of the month.

I remember that month well. It was my first on eastern. We were quite cold the first 3 weeks and then the final 10 days were a torch (well almost, we cooled and got a snow event on New Years Eve).

It doesn't appear we are getting much PAC help through early December...maybe we'll see a fluke ride pop later on over the EPO region, but it certainly looks like the GOA low wants to get re-established...though how strong will obviously be a key. If its there but not overwhelming we can still keep the Northern CONUS (esp E of the MS) fairly cool with a -NAO.

[Ginx snewx]

We shut down after the super bomb on the 9 th then had the 4 days NYE storms,

[ORH_wxman]

We shut down after the super bomb on the 9 th then had the 4 days NYE storms,

It was pretty cold though after 12/9/05...we had an interior ice storm on the 16th and then it cooled off until the 21st-22nd IIRC

[HM]

The wavelengths are absolutely perfect ~ Thanksgiving. A beautiful western ridge, strong -NAO and the motherload dropping down into southern Canada. Perhaps a Thanksgiving Buffalo massacre? You don't need me to say it again but the LES potential is just....wow.

[Ginx snewx]

<br />The wavelengths are absolutely perfect ~ Thanksgiving. A beautiful western ridge, strong -NAO and the motherload dropping down into southern Canada. Perhaps a Thanksgiving Buffalo massacre? You don't need me to say it again but the LES potential is just....wow.<br />

Yessiree , dual blocking sig, just need that one votrtspoke to blow up off the Delmarva, by the way sick winds up here tonight.

[Ji]

The wavelengths are absolutely perfect ~ Thanksgiving. A beautiful western ridge, strong -NAO and the motherload dropping down into southern Canada. Perhaps a Thanksgiving Buffalo massacre? You don't need me to say it again but the LES potential is just....wow.

that sounds like a perfect recipe for eastern coastal plains snow. Screw Buffalo

[HM]

that sounds like a perfect recipe for eastern coastal plains snow. Screw Buffalo

What sounds good to you? Nov 29-Dec1 or Dec 3-5?

[Ginx snewx]

<br />What sounds good to you? Nov 29-Dec1 or Dec 3-5? <img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br />[/quote

LOL loaded pattern coming up, Manitoba Mauler to light the spark?

[stormtracker]

The wavelengths are absolutely perfect ~ Thanksgiving. A beautiful western ridge, strong -NAO and the motherload dropping down into southern Canada. Perhaps a Thanksgiving Buffalo massacre? You don't need me to say it again but the LES potential is just....wow.

HM, if you could expand on this a little...

Down here, most of the gang is resigned to the fact that we're gonna have to chase to get good snow. We;ve settled on an epic LES chase. I'm anxious!

[Ginx snewx]

<br />HM, if you could expand on this a little...<br /><br />Down here, most of the gang is resigned to the fact that we're gonna have to chase to get good snow.  We;ve settled on an epic LES chase.   I'm anxious!<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Sh. It Randy with this setup you might just have to chase th WMaryland Garrett Country or possible if things pop, out ur back window.

[nzucker]

What sounds good to you? Nov 29-Dec1 or Dec 3-5?

I'm not sure HM; the ridge axis around Thanksgiving looks like it's still a bit too far west and would lead to a storm being more of a cutter/redeveloper than a classic coastal. Heights over FL are still near 588dm which usually isn't a good sign for an I-95 event.

The pattern gets a little better after that, although we're losing the arctic connection due to the +EPO. It's still probably cold enough if we get the right s/w however, as the NAO blocking is through the roof.