Where we're at, where we're going

[ORH_wxman]

The ECMWF ensemble mean has an extremely robust -NAO block at D10...I continue to be impressed with such a strong look on a smoothed ensemble mean that far out in time.

[usedtobe]

Well, see that's why I'm asking if he's referring to the CPC diagrams or not. My question is if the SSTA are supportive of phases 3-5 of the MJO, why has the MJO not even attempt to move into these regions (3 through 5) all Fall? Shouldn't there be some forcing mechanism? I think based on the way the atmosphere is reacting to the ENSO anomalies going on nearly 3 months of the coldest anomalies being towards niño 3 and 1+2, that this is having an effect on the MJO, just as I thought it would. Thus the non-torch winter forecast. I could be wrong, but the atmosphere tends to set up a seasonal pattern, a theme so to speak, and that theme is an MJO in PHASE 5 to 8, a negative NAO, and a hell of a battle with the Southeast ridge with an axis off the Southeast coast.

Now, you mention the QBO as being less favorable for a negative NAO and yet that QBO sure hasn't had much of an impact in the late summer and now through much of this Fall. Don't you think there is something else at play here than just the QBO? I'm looking at stratospheric anomalies, specifically where the warmest portions of the stratosphere is located, and I think that MIGHT be a clue. I used it for three years in forecasting when and if the NAO will go negative, and so far I'm batting around .800. I'm still testing the theory out for another two winters before I can say I'm confident on the idea, but it could explain why the NAO has been and continues to be neutral to negative.

The QBOs effect is usually more important in winter than summer and the fall pattern often doesn't foretell the winter pattern. Even a cold December which many of us are expecting does not mean the winter will be cold. Just try on 1989-1990. Three years means little when dealing with long range stuff. You can jsut be plain lucky. I was pretty good last year and will freely admit that I claim no skill. We'll jsut ahve to wait and see.

[usedtobe]

The ECMWF ensemble mean has an extremely robust -NAO block at D10...I continue to be impressed with such a strong look on a smoothed ensemble mean that far out in time.

That does give more hope that for Dec and that even if the negative NAO weakens for awhile that it will come back. This looks like an interesting year.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

The ECMWF ensemble mean has an extremely robust -NAO block at D10...I continue to be impressed with such a strong look on a smoothed ensemble mean that far out in time.

I am really liking what looks to be a short wave moving through the Dakotas/N. Plains around Dec 1st as the block will be in place and hopefully begins to retro. It looks like a BOI ridge is trying to spike as the same time which would suggest amplification of that short wave digging southeast. Now THAT is something I can get excited about

[ORH_wxman]

I am really liking what looks to be a short wave moving through the Dakotas/N. Plains around Dec 1st as the block will be in place and hopefully begins to retro. It looks like a BOI ridge is trying to spike as the same time which would suggest amplification of that short wave digging southeast. Now THAT is something I can get excited about

Yeah, many of us have been hitting that time frame over in the New England pattern change thread as a good candidate for the first decent snow event of the season. Obviously you have to get the shortwaves to cooperate but the larger scale players will certainly be in favor of it.

[nynjpaweather]

The QBOs effect is usually more important in winter than summer and the fall pattern often doesn't foretell the winter pattern. Even a cold December which many of us are expecting does not mean the winter will be cold. Just try on 1989-1990. Three years means little when dealing with long range stuff. You can jsut be plain lucky. I was pretty good last year and will freely admit that I claim no skill. We'll jsut ahve to wait and see.

There should be some signs of the QBO's influence though. Some influences showing up at this point in the atmosphere. It's not like the atmosphere looks at the calendar and says, well it's December, let's flip the switch. We are beyond the mid point of November, and there should be some signs of stronger influenced counteracting a negative NAO block. Reality, if the models are right, we are about to have a strong negative NAO.

You're right, a cold December does not mean a cold winter, however it's good to have a head start. As for the analog year of 1989/1990, it doesn't match up to well with the solar impacts, AMO state, and the strength of the negative PDO. Different dynamics at play that year. You got La Nina, but that La Nina developed and was oriented differently. Sure, we can look at 89/90, but I can also look at 54/55 or 18/19 or 14/15.

Finally, I agree that three years means nothing, so far, which is why I am continuing the research for a few more years, but this is an excellent test. What's more important? ENSO or stratospheric anomalies? Solar influence or convection at the equator? An excellent test for this year!

Edit: Came off a bit strong. Hope no offense taken.

[usedtobe]

There should be some signs of the QBO's influence though. Some influences showing up at this point in the atmosphere. It's not like the atmosphere looks at the calendar and says, well it's December, let's flip the switch. We are beyond the mid point of November, and there should be some signs of stronger influenced counteracting a negative NAO block. Reality, if the models are right, we are about to have a strong negative NAO.

You're right, a cold December does not mean a cold winter, however it's good to have a head start. As for the analog year of 1989/1990, it doesn't match up to well with the solar impacts, AMO state, and the strength of the negative PDO. Different dynamics at play that year. You got La Nina, but that La Nina developed and was oriented differently. Sure, we can look at 89/90, but I can also look at 54/55 or 18/19 or 14/15.

Finally, I agree that three years means nothing, so far, which is why I am continuing the research for a few more years, but this is an excellent test. What's more important? ENSO or stratospheric anomalies? Solar influence or convection at the equator? An excellent test for this year!

Edit: Came off a bit strong. Hope no offense taken.

No offense actually the best qbo, solar was seasonal in Dec, cold in Jan and torched in Feb and March. I had a low solar and westerly qbo like this year and was a strong la nina. That said, anyone who really things they have long range forecasting figured out including me is fooling themselves.

[nynjpaweather]

No offense actually the best qbo, solar was seasonal in Dec, cold in Jan and torched in Feb and March. I had a low solar and westerly qbo like this year and was a strong la nina. That said, anyone who really things they have long range forecasting figured out including me is fooling themselves.

Absolutely agree. That's why I love it. Always something new to learn and it's one of the most challenging aspects of meteorology.

[NinjaWarrior2]

18z GFS day 11-15

[NinjaWarrior2]

[HM]

Question, if I may:

When you say the -NAO done, are you saying neutral or a full positive NAO feature? Also, what makes you think the MJO will go in a phase 3-4-5 transition? Are we talking the same phases as what is shown at the CPC?

When I say, "done," I am talking about the completion of the block's retrogression. When it becomes fully absorbed into the Mid Latitudes, will be when the Gulf of Alaska low dominates. Why does this potentially have the makings of a strong shot of warmth?

1. Gulf of Alaska fully in control shuts off the Arctic express

2. Wavelengths elongate during mid-December into winter lengths, allowing the northern-tier no help from a downstream trough (like what the East had in Oct/Nov)

3. An MJO response from trade winds and oscillating CHI frequencies suggests a pulse across Indonesia will begin, aiding the development of the GOA low/warm CONUS pattern.

I could see a 1954-like progression here where the PNA pattern becomes a SE low / warm northern-tier in the second week/mid month. Ultimately, we will develop a more typical La Niña pattern toward the end of the month into early January.

[HM]

Well, see that's why I'm asking if he's referring to the CPC diagrams or not. My question is if the SSTA are supportive of phases 3-5 of the MJO, why has the MJO not even attempt to move into these regions (3 through 5) all Fall? Shouldn't there be some forcing mechanism? I think based on the way the atmosphere is reacting to the ENSO anomalies going on nearly 3 months of the coldest anomalies being towards niño 3 and 1+2, that this is having an effect on the MJO, just as I thought it would. Thus the non-torch winter forecast. I could be wrong, but the atmosphere tends to set up a seasonal pattern, a theme so to speak, and that theme is an MJO in PHASE 5 to 8, a negative NAO, and a hell of a battle with the Southeast ridge with an axis off the Southeast coast.

Now, you mention the QBO as being less favorable for a negative NAO and yet that QBO sure hasn't had much of an impact in the late summer and now through much of this Fall. Don't you think there is something else at play here than just the QBO? I'm looking at stratospheric anomalies, specifically where the warmest portions of the stratosphere is located, and I think that MIGHT be a clue. I used it for three years in forecasting when and if the NAO will go negative, and so far I'm batting around .800. I'm still testing the theory out for another two winters before I can say I'm confident on the idea, but it could explain why the NAO has been and continues to be neutral to negative.

Actually, October saw a classic MJO response across Indonesia and the pattern across the CONUS was classic. I don't make my MJO forecasts off modeling, although I do look at them. When I predict an MJO wave, it isn't because of the SST, although I do look at them, too. If you are asking how I do it...sorry...I can't answer that.

I have to run; but when I come back, I will address the QBO.

[NinjaWarrior2]

When I say, "done," I am talking about the completion of the block's retrogression. When it becomes fully absorbed into the Mid Latitudes, will be when the Gulf of Alaska low dominates. Why does this potentially have the makings of a strong shot of warmth?

1. Gulf of Alaska fully in control shuts off the Arctic express

2. Wavelengths elongate during mid-December into winter lengths, allowing the northern-tier no help from a downstream trough (like what the East had in Oct/Nov)

3. An MJO response from trade winds and oscillating CHI frequencies suggests a pulse across Indonesia will begin, aiding the development of the GOA low/warm CONUS pattern.

I could see a 1954-like progression here where the PNA pattern becomes a SE low / warm northern-tier in the second week/mid month. Ultimately, we will develop a more typical La Niña pattern toward the end of the month into early January.

GFS has this intact for most of the Medium-Long Range [12z GFS], big -PNA signal

The -PNA signal looks so intact, it reminds me of (cough, cough), the -NAO/Greenland Block of last winter, lol. Strong West-Based El Nino vs Strong East-Based La Nina, wouldnt think you would see big anomalies, but oh well.

[NinjaWarrior2]

-NAO, -PNA, -ENSO year temp composite

ALL 3 years had a -AO and -EPO averaged winter

ALL 3 years also had a -QBO.

We have to deal with a +QBO though this year and possibly a +EPO, so I think the Eastern US will look warmer than this.

[tacoman25]

-NAO, -PNA, -ENSO year temp composite

ALL 3 years had a -AO and -EPO averaged winter

ALL 3 years also had a -QBO.

We have to deal with a +QBO though this year and possibly a +EPO, so I think the Eastern US will look warmer than this.

1968-69 was an El Nino.

[VAwxman]

Well, see that's why I'm asking if he's referring to the CPC diagrams or not. My question is if the SSTA are supportive of phases 3-5 of the MJO, why has the MJO not even attempt to move into these regions (3 through 5) all Fall?

Let's stop here and just say.... Huh???

Have you looked at the MJO the last few months? If so, there is no way you could make such a statement that it has not even attempted to move through these phases.

We're not debating forecasts here, but actual, indisputable data. Not trying to pick on you but actual observed data is not up for debate.

[Isotherm]

GFS has this intact for most of the Medium-Long Range [12z GFS], big -PNA signal

The -PNA signal looks so intact, it reminds me of (cough, cough), the -NAO/Greenland Block of last winter, lol. Strong West-Based El Nino vs Strong East-Based La Nina, wouldnt think you would see big anomalies, but oh well.

Well the -PNA isn't much of a surprise, that's almsot a guarantee with a Nina this strong and the PDO moderately negative. But when we couple a -PNA and a -NAO, you can still pull off a cold winter even into the Northeast.

[VAwxman]

I used it for three years in forecasting when and if the NAO will go negative, and so far I'm batting around .800.

I would like to see proof of this, no offense intended.

[HM]

You can say what you want about the QBO and the NAO, but the QBO is doing its job. When it comes down to the HT relationship, the +QBO/low solar flux signal is working well on the early season stratosphere. The polar vortex is stronger than normal, as you can see from the following charts:

The lower stratospheric ozone content / warm anomaly that propagated from the Pacific to North America had to do with upwelling waves from E. Asia. This ozone configuration was building up over the summer/autumn with the La Niña altering water vapor and the remnant -QBO wave breaking into the lowest layers. Ultimately, mountain torques picked up the remnant ozone anomalies and carried it into the North Atlantic. That may make this particular -NAO episode extra-intense vs. the regular -NAO that one might expect at this time of year from a La Niña/+AAM spike.

QBO is doing its job here and overall the stratosphere is only responsible for about 20% of the -NAO, IMO, and that has to do with what I described above. Otherwise, this is all tropospheric related for how this blocking is going to get going (and also the sun).

[ORH_wxman]

Well the -PNA isn't much of a surprise, that's almsot a guarantee with a Nina this strong and the PDO moderately negative. But when we couple a -PNA and a -NAO, you can still pull off a cold winter even into the Northeast.

I made a list of -PNA/-NAO winters a couple days ago in the NE subforum...and most of them were cold/snowy in the Northeast. There's been very few of them recently. In fact only 2 that I came up with since the 1970s....that being 1984-1985 and 2008-2009. 1981-1982 was very close but the NAO was a pinch positive that winter.

So certainly it can lead to a decent pattern, but the key is obviously keeping the NAO negative on the whole.

[HM]

GFS has this intact for most of the Medium-Long Range [12z GFS], big -PNA signal

The -PNA signal looks so intact, it reminds me of (cough, cough), the -NAO/Greenland Block of last winter, lol. Strong West-Based El Nino vs Strong East-Based La Nina, wouldnt think you would see big anomalies, but oh well.

The big rPNA pattern is directly related to the -EPO and further aided by the fact that we aren't quite in winter mode yet with wavelengths. But the rPNA will gradually diminish and head more toward a neutral state as the GOA low returns. This still is ok for folks downstream in the East because the wavelengths are still short enough to keep a general trough there and the -NAO will make sure the SE ridge doesn't get too overbearing. These two features helping the East seem to both go away at the same time mid-Dec. Hopefully, the block can redevelop!

[40/70 Benchmark]

The big rPNA pattern is directly related to the -EPO and further aided by the fact that we aren't quite in winter mode yet with wavelengths. But the rPNA will gradually diminish and head more toward a neutral state as the GOA low returns. This still is ok for folks downstream in the East because the wavelengths are still short enough to keep a general trough there and the -NAO will make sure the SE ridge doesn't get too overbearing. These two features helping the East seem to both go away at the same time mid-Dec. Hopefully, the block can redevelop!

Reading btwn the lines, seems like we maybe setting up for xmas in thongs.

[HM]

There should be some signs of the QBO's influence though. Some influences showing up at this point in the atmosphere. It's not like the atmosphere looks at the calendar and says, well it's December, let's flip the switch. We are beyond the mid point of November, and there should be some signs of stronger influenced counteracting a negative NAO block. Reality, if the models are right, we are about to have a strong negative NAO.

See my post above...the QBO is having an influence. The QBO's response to wintertime blocking can start as soon as the vortex forms, which is usually in October and this lasts until the final warming in the spring. The PV has developed this year swiftly and is stronger than normal. NAO/AO modality doesn't always have to be directly related to a stratospheric warming event...that is just one piece to the puzzle.

[nynjpaweather]

Let's stop here and just say.... Huh???

Have you looked at the MJO the last few months? If so, there is no way you could make such a statement that it has not even attempted to move through these phases.

We're not debating forecasts here, but actual, indisputable data. Not trying to pick on you but actual observed data is not up for debate.

Actually, it's really been mostly neutral aside from that one spike in October. See.

[HM]

Reading btwn the lines, seems like we maybe setting up for xmas in thongs.

LOL

Well, it may not be as bad in the eastern third but it certainly is looking like a warm signal, once the NAO block dissipates. So, let's just hope it doesn't. It would make for a very interesting pattern.

[nynjpaweather]

I would like to see proof of this, no offense intended.

None taken. I started to show the ground work to my Premium Clients and when I have gone through enough tests, I will present the data. Again, it's a working theory to see if it works. We'll see how it goes. This year should be a huge test and I'll let you know how it goes in March. Deal?

[HM]

Actually, it's really been mostly neutral aside from that one spike in October. See.

What are you trying to argue? The only true MJO event we had was in those phases man. The rest of the time is incoherent and not true MJO activity. But let's get away from that for a second. Are you trying to say the forcing hasn't been near Indonesia the entire time?

[nynjpaweather]

What are you trying to argue? The only true MJO event we had was in those phases man. The rest of the time is incoherent and not true MJO activity. But let's get away for that a second. Are you trying to say the forcing hasn't been near Indonesia the entire time?

Nope, not saying that at all. I started with asking why you thought A. the NAO block was going to collapse and B. why you thought the MJO was going to go through 3-5. I was assuming, mistakingly perhaps, that you were suggesting a strong influence from the MJO in phases 3-5 was going to develop. Or are you saying it will repeat what it did in September, which is mainly incoherent.

And I'm not arguing anything. You could be right. I don't think this pattern up coming in late December is going to be all that warm so I'm curious as to how much weight some of those with the warmer forecasts are putting on the MJO or La Nina in general.

[HM]

Nope, not saying that at all. I started with asking why you thought A. the NAO block was going to collapse and B. why you thought the MJO was going to go through 3-5. I was assuming, mistakingly perhaps, that you were suggesting a strong influence from the MJO in phases 3-5 was going to develop. Or are you saying it will repeat what it did in September, which is mainly incoherent.

And I'm not arguing anything. You could be right. I don't think this pattern up coming in late December is going to be all that warm so I'm curious as to how much weight some of those with the warmer forecasts are putting on the MJO or La Nina in general.

Well, I addressed this above in responses to your questions. But, I was addressing, in this last post you made, the forcing that has been predominately in the East IO/Indonesia all autumn. This is mainly ENSO/Walker Circulation related, obviously, and is quite the warm signal once the winter wavelengths kick into gear.

[nynjpaweather]

Well, I addressed this above in responses to your questions. But, I was addressing, in this last post you made, the forcing that has been predominately in the East IO/Indonesia all autumn. This is mainly ENSO/Walker Circulation related, obviously, and is quite the warm signal once the winter wavelengths kick into gear.

Yes, I know and I'm reading them now.

Here's the disconnect I have here with the reasoning here. The warm signals from the ENSO/Walker Circulation are important. Don't get me wrong. But it appears to me, that you are trying to make this the dominant factor here. For the South, I completely agree. I have my doubts for the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. The signal I'm getting from the tropics, which is the same as yours, but I put less weight on that influence with the NAO factors than it appears you do. That's my contention here.

Southeast, I'm 100% in agreement. Southern Mid Atlantic as well. But I have my doubts on the strength of this influence for the Northern Mid Atlantic and New England. I guess you can throw the Great Lakes in there too. Again, this all revolves around the research I'm doing which is basically standing on the giant that was Landscheidt (2001) research. So that might be the difference here.