Where we're at, where we're going

[A-L-E-X]

I wonder what implications the current/forecasted blocking have for January and February... I went slightly cold for January and warm for February, with the switch occurring roughly mid-January. Could the current blocking episode be indicative of what's to come later this winter (as happened last winter), and if so, could we average cold all three months? I don't think we'll see a cold February, but I think the current episode could foreshadow a much colder January (at least through mid-month) than many anticipated...

I would buy a mild mid Jan to mid Feb (or right to the end of Feb) and a much colder and stormier March.

[Nikolai]

This winter could present a textbook case of the solar influence. I know you dont like to use old analogs, but we might have to trot out 1903-04 and 1916-17.

I wish we had the same data back till 1900 (or even better, 1800!) that we do back to the 50s. There really is no precedent for our current solar cycle until you go back 100+ years--activity is still very low. It would be funny if we actually did hit our solar max in 2011 or 2012 and had an even longer minimum than last time. We don't understand enough about the solar cycle to make real judgments yet, but I think it's safe to say that whatever impact it has, we are clearly (as others have stated) done with the Ninas of the 70s-early 00s and have reverted to a pattern where Ninas are colder on a national scale.

[Chris L]

Could you imagine what the weather would have been like without a strong nina? A weak nina with this kind of NAO would be absolutely crazy around here-- possibly 95-96 repeat.

February 2010....

then

January 1996?

That would be nuts.

[tacoman25]

I wonder what implications the current/forecasted blocking have for January and February... I went slightly cold for January and warm for February, with the switch occurring roughly mid-January. Could the current blocking episode be indicative of what's to come later this winter (as happened last winter), and if so, could we average cold all three months? I don't think we'll see a cold February, but I think the current episode could foreshadow a much colder January (at least through mid-month) than many anticipated...

My December forecast is likely already screwed for the East, as I went warm in the SE and normal in the NE. I expected a cold period in early December but then thought the SE ridge would warm things up quickly the second half of the month...it now appears likely that thanks to the persistent/strong -NAO block, most of the East will see a cold month.

If the -AO/-NAO persists into January, my forecast will really be in trouble, as I had that month blowtorching in the East. Too far out to say at this point, though.

[Nikolai]

My December forecast is likely already screwed for the East, as I went warm in the SE and normal in the NE. I expected a cold period in early December but then thought the SE ridge would warm things up quickly the second half of the month...it now appears likely that thanks to the persistent/strong -NAO block, most of the East will see a cold month.

If the -AO/-NAO persists into January, my forecast will really be in trouble, as I had that month blowtorching in the East. Too far out to say at this point, though.

I'll look into it later, but could you (or someone) put together a composite of years with severely -NAO/AO in December? I'm wondering if ENSO status is significant in seeing what happens following severe December blocking episodes--whether Ninos or Ninas are better for indicating the continuation of blocking.

[tacoman25]

This winter could present a textbook case of the solar influence. I know you dont like to use old analogs, but we might have to trot out 1903-04 and 1916-17.

I don't have a problem with old analogs, as long as they reasonably apply.

1916-17 was actually one of the older analogs that seemed to fit best when I was making my winter forecast...given overall Nina tendencies, I just couldn't go that cold in the East. 1903-04 seems less likely to me, given the current PDO phase...it also doesn't match other indices as well as 1916.

[A-L-E-X]

I'll look into it later, but could you (or someone) put together a composite of years with severely -NAO/AO in December? I'm wondering if ENSO status is significant in seeing what happens following severe December blocking episodes--whether Ninos or Ninas are better for indicating the continuation of blocking.

I remember Don put together a chart showing that severe blocks in December are likely to repeat in the winter, but I dont think it was classified by ENSO.  It would be interesting to see how it pans out in mod to strong la ninas.  The sample size must be really small though.

[A-L-E-X]

I don't have a problem with old analogs, as long as they reasonably apply.

1916-17 was actually one of the older analogs that seemed to fit best when I was making my winter forecast...given overall Nina tendencies, I just couldn't go that cold in the East. 1903-04 seems less likely to me, given the current PDO phase...it also doesn't match other indices as well as 1916.

Was 1917-18 also in your list?  I dont remember, but those were back to back la ninas I believe.

[tacoman25]

I'll look into it later, but could you (or someone) put together a composite of years with severely -NAO/AO in December? I'm wondering if ENSO status is significant in seeing what happens following severe December blocking episodes--whether Ninos or Ninas are better for indicating the continuation of blocking.

Ok, so here is Jan-Mar following years with -1 or lower December NAO.

Here is Jan-Mar following Nina years with -NAO average for Nov/Dec.

Inversely, here is Jan-Mar following Nina years with +NAO average for Nov/Dec.

As you can see, it appears that regardless of ENSO state, if the NAO is negative early in the cold season, there is a much greater chance that it will be negative the rest of the winter (and much colder for the East/South).

[A-L-E-X]

    Wow, with that first map, pretty much the whole country is cold..... even more so with a Nov-Dec couplet.   So maybe a neg nao's influence doesnt show up in November, but it means something for later on if it is persistent into December.  

[CoastalWx]

Ok, so here is Jan-Mar following years with -1 or lower December NAO.

Here is Jan-Mar following Nina years with -NAO average for Nov/Dec.

Inversely, here is Jan-Mar following Nina years with +NAO average for Nov/Dec.

As you can see, it appears that regardless of ENSO state, if the NAO is negative early in the cold season, there is a much greater chance that it will be negative the rest of the winter (and much colder for the East/South).

And in many cases, the NAO was independent of ENSO. We had -NAO years during mdt/strong ENSO events, so clearly other things were at play.

[tacoman25]

Was 1917-18 also in your list? I dont remember, but those were back to back la ninas I believe.

Yeah, 1917-18 was a decent SOI/NPI/ENSO match.

[okie333]

Yeah, 1917-18 was a decent SOI/NPI/ENSO match.

Glad to hear that.

[tacoman25]

Wow, with that first map, pretty much the whole country is cold..... even more so with a Nov-Dec couplet. So maybe a neg nao's influence doesnt show up in November, but it means something for later on if it is persistent into December.

FWIW, the only years with -1 or lower NAO for both November and December (looking likely for 2010) are: 1950, 1963, 1968 (not quite but very close), and 1995. So it's quite rare.

[nzucker]

Nate, do you think the -NAO signal will become more neutral towards Jan and Feb and go more negative again in March, like it did in 55-56? Or could it be a more sustained neg NAO this winter?

That's what my winter forecast says....I had December very cold in the Northern Tier of the US, including the Northeast with a severely -NAO. I forecasted a moderation of the pattern with the SE ridge building in by January and becoming very dominant in February with only the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies being cold.

I'm a bit worried about how cold the SE is looking, though. I just couldn't fathom going below average from DC south in a strong Niña given climo there and what we saw in winters like 07-08, 99-00, 98-99, etc. If the NAO stays this negative however, the Mid-Atlantic would probably be below average for the winter, which would bust almost all the forecasts I've seen. I'm starting to see the Greenland block as a recurring pattern since it immediately rebuilds any time the models try to dissipate it; for example, after the weekend storm, a 582dm ridge builds into Greenland on the GFS with almost the entire area above 0C at 850mb...that's just insane for mid-December. Some of the GFS ENS are also showing the AO in the 4-5SD below average range, which is again incredible. Very powerful blocking signal so far this winter, and it looks to persist through Christmas.

Was 1917-18 also in your list? I dont remember, but those were back to back la ninas I believe.

1917-18 was a much weaker Niña than 1916-17 so it's not as much of a surprise that it was a cold winter nationally. I think 16-17 is the best old analog.

[HM]

Too many anecdotes in this thread. Now look...I am about as much on board with solar physics/forecasting for atmospheric/climatic effects as you all are in this thread and I am sure you know that; but having said that, you can't simply say this blocking is from any one thing in particular (that's not scientific). Even I will admit that and I want to believe the sun is the main cause. However, you could have just as easily made this -NAO forecast based on terrestrial factors and the same thing can be said for the strong Aleutian High. And there is way too much verification going on here before things are over. I'm glad to see the NAO working out for December but that doesn't mean diddly for the overall average, yet. Speaking of December verification, this is why I warned that typical CONUS temp anomaly maps in Dec would fail. The coldest anomaly, when the month is over, may end up being over the Southeast.

The forcing in the Tropical Pacific has come to life and the MJO forecast is working out. A coherent wave in Indonesia has taken shape and already the models are trending significantly toward that in the medium range. A great fight between the Greenland blocking and terrible Pacific will take place and has taken place since 11/20 or so.

This is a terrible pattern for the Mid Atlantic and I see many calls for big snowstorms are looking to fail right now. oh well.... climo is your best friend.

[tacoman25]

Too many anecdotes in this thread. Now look...I am about as much on board with solar physics/forecasting for atmospheric/climatic effects as you all are in this thread and I am sure you know that; but having said that, you can't simply say this blocking is from any one thing in particular (that's not scientific). Even I will admit that and I want to believe the sun is the main cause. However, you could have just as easily made this -NAO forecast based on terrestrial factors and the same thing can be said for the strong Aleutian High. And there is way too much verification going on here before things are over. I'm glad to see the NAO working out for December but that doesn't mean diddly for the overall average, yet. Speaking of December verification, this is why I warned that typical CONUS temp anomaly maps in Dec would fail. The coldest anomaly, when the month is over, may end up being over the Southeast.

The forcing in the Tropical Pacific has come to life and the MJO forecast is working out. A coherent wave in Indonesia has taken shape and already the models are trending significantly toward that in the medium range. A great fight between the Greenland blocking and terrible Pacific will take place and has taken place since 11/20 or so.

This is a terrible pattern for the Mid Atlantic and I see many calls for big snowstorms are looking to fail right now. oh well.... climo is your best friend.

Thanks for your input, HM. However, I think you are overlooking some things.

1. What anecdotes are you referring to? We've been discussing statistics. Granted, no one knows for sure if the sun is responsible for all the blocking we've seen recently...but given the broader context of the last couple years and the timing of everything, it's hard to find a likelier suspect.

2. If one could have "just as easily" predicted this massive blocking based on terrestial factors, why haven't I seen that forecast? C'mon, really...who was expecting this sort of blocking? This will likely be one of the most -NAO Nov/Dec combos we have ever seen (unless the models are totally off their rocker for the next couple of weeks). That points to magnitude and persistence.

3. You have no comment on the strong correlations between early season blocking and blocking the remainder of the cold season?

[HM]

Thanks for your input, HM. However, I think you are overlooking some things.

1. What anecdotes are you referring to? We've been discussing statistics. Granted, no one knows for sure if the sun is responsible for all the blocking we've seen recently...but given the broader context of the last couple years and the timing of everything, it's hard to find a likelier suspect.

2. If one could have "just as easily" predicted this massive blocking based on terrestial factors, why haven't I seen that forecast? C'mon, really...who was expecting this sort of blocking? This will likely be one of the most -NAO Nov/Dec combos we have ever seen (unless the models are totally off their rocker for the next couple of weeks). That points to magnitude and persistence.

3. You have no comment on the strong correlations between early season blocking and blocking the remainder of the cold season?

1. No where in this thread is there anything statistical about the solar response to the NAO. What are the mechanisms you want to show? What is the significance of those mechanisms? A seasonal aa-index cannot be verified until the seasonal NAO is in, is all I'm saying. Show me the sub-seasonal things and we'll talk and I will be glad to do so!

2. I predicted this -NAO, on forums, back in October and cold episode. No one ever says, "this will be the strongest -NAO block ever" in a forecast if they want to do this stuff responsibly. I had plenty of Earthly factors suggesting this, too, along with the solar end to things. In my view, the state of the vortex is affected by many things.

3. I have already said how I think the blocking goes down through January and said to watch mid Jan, particularly the third week for an impressive outbreak. I may have to look back into this, once I get the time, and fine tune the exact timing. The MJO forecast is looking good and the Pacific will respond as well. This is going to put a good fight against the extreme -NAO/AO mid Dec and I think ultimately lose.

I'm just playing devil's advocate here because it seems like there is way too much hearsay going on. I can easily say the same thing about the NAO on the Siberian Oct response, the AMO, the PDO, the ozone, the weakened tropical forcing period/AAM response etc. Although, I can also debunk every one of those as well.

[HM]

You know what, I'm sorry. I didn't realize that only the original thread was brought back from Eastern. I don't know if you remember it tacoman, but in the original Indian ocean thread I went on about the winter. I gave some freebies. Unfortunately, I have restrictions but I was pretty open at the start of the thread. Anyway, you are going to have to go by memory unless someone has it saved?

[Nikolai]

1. No where in this thread is there anything statistical about the solar response to the NAO. What are the mechanisms you want to show? What is the significance of those mechanisms? A seasonal aa-index cannot be verified until the seasonal NAO is in, is all I'm saying. Show me the sub-seasonal things and we'll talk and I will be glad to do so!

2. I predicted this -NAO, on forums, back in October and cold episode. No one ever says, "this will be the strongest -NAO block ever" in a forecast if they want to do this stuff responsibly. I had plenty of Earthly factors suggesting this, too, along with the solar end to things. In my view, the state of the vortex is affected by many things.

3. I have already said how I think the blocking goes down through January and said to watch mid Jan, particularly the third week for an impressive outbreak. I may have to look back into this, once I get the time, and fine tune the exact timing. The MJO forecast is looking good and the Pacific will respond as well. This is going to put a good fight against the extreme -NAO/AO mid Dec and I think ultimately lose.

I'm just playing devil's advocate here because it seems like there is way too much hearsay going on. I can easily say the same thing about the NAO on the Siberian Oct response, the AMO, the PDO, the ozone, the weakened tropical forcing period/AAM response etc. Although, I can also debunk every one of those as well.

Actually, you didn't. You have gone on record as saying the -NAO would break early into the month, and while it could potentially return at the end, you said we were probably in for a major warm-up mid-month.

Assuming that the long range guidance is correct, the pattern would become favorable for wintry precipitation. The anafront on Thanksgiving is a nice way to kick off winter, potentially bringing the season's first flakes to the Mid Atlantic. Although, I have seen these turn into junk as we get closer and hone in on the details. A clipper-styled s/w around the 30th is of interest and then potentially Dec 3-5 as the -NAO breaks. Overall, a very active pattern if all goes correctly.

Can DC see a 10" snowstorm like Dec 1973?

[HM]

Actually, you didn't. You have gone on record as saying the -NAO would break early into the month, and while it could potentially return at the end, you said we were probably in for a major warm-up mid-month.

Actually this isn't the forecast from October that I'm referencing from my winter outlook thoughts and the -NAO does temporarily break after this amplification when the PV jets north. Outside of that, you are trying to suggest that the -NAO on models out beyond a week is proving me wrong about a warm up coming...yeah... You know, between your first shot at me with the MJO a while back and this crap, I'm beginning to think you are just being a d--k to me. That's okay, it's hard adding anything useful to the table when all you have is hearsay

[tacoman25]

1. No where in this thread is there anything statistical about the solar response to the NAO. What are the mechanisms you want to show? What is the significance of those mechanisms? A seasonal aa-index cannot be verified until the seasonal NAO is in, is all I'm saying. Show me the sub-seasonal things and we'll talk and I will be glad to do so!

2. I predicted this -NAO, on forums, back in October and cold episode. No one ever says, "this will be the strongest -NAO block ever" in a forecast if they want to do this stuff responsibly. I had plenty of Earthly factors suggesting this, too, along with the solar end to things. In my view, the state of the vortex is affected by many things.

3. I have already said how I think the blocking goes down through January and said to watch mid Jan, particularly the third week for an impressive outbreak. I may have to look back into this, once I get the time, and fine tune the exact timing. The MJO forecast is looking good and the Pacific will respond as well. This is going to put a good fight against the extreme -NAO/AO mid Dec and I think ultimately lose.

I'm just playing devil's advocate here because it seems like there is way too much hearsay going on. I can easily say the same thing about the NAO on the Siberian Oct response, the AMO, the PDO, the ozone, the weakened tropical forcing period/AAM response etc. Although, I can also debunk every one of those as well.

1. Possible solar mechanisms have been discussed previously in other threads...regardless, as I said, it's getting to the point where an objective observer has to consider all possible causes for what has been going on, and solar certainly has to be a leading candidate. Unless one wants to write off the record blocking seen last season and so far this season as just random occurrence.

2. Well yeah, a lot of people were expecting a colder period for the East in late Nov/early Dec....but the magnitude/duration of this blocking period demonstrates something bigger than that, I think.

You are right that the jury is still out on how the seasonal indices will end up...but given past history and the severity/persistence of the blocking, I don't think it's too soon to start evaluating what's going on. It's definitely the "elephant in the room" right now. Especially since the general consensus this fall seemed to be that the Nina would overpower the strong -NAO tendencies seen lately.

And as I mentioned earlier, I am among those who will bust badly if this winter continues to see more -AO/-NAO than expected...I have no personal stake in this.

[okie333]

That's what my winter forecast says....I had December very cold in the Northern Tier of the US, including the Northeast with a severely -NAO. I forecasted a moderation of the pattern with the SE ridge building in by January and becoming very dominant in February with only the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies being cold.

I'm a bit worried about how cold the SE is looking, though. I just couldn't fathom going below average from DC south in a strong Niña given climo there and what we saw in winters like 07-08, 99-00, 98-99, etc. If the NAO stays this negative however, the Mid-Atlantic would probably be below average for the winter, which would bust almost all the forecasts I've seen. I'm starting to see the Greenland block as a recurring pattern since it immediately rebuilds any time the models try to dissipate it; for example, after the weekend storm, a 582dm ridge builds into Greenland on the GFS with almost the entire area above 0C at 850mb...that's just insane for mid-December. Some of the GFS ENS are also showing the AO in the 4-5SD below average range, which is again incredible. Very powerful blocking signal so far this winter, and it looks to persist through Christmas.

1917-18 was a much weaker Niña than 1916-17 so it's not as much of a surprise that it was a cold winter nationally. I think 16-17 is the best old analog.

Correction: more than 6SD below average (incidentally, last year's -5.5 spell made the CPC change the charts from -4/4 to -6/6... wonder if they'll change them again if those members verify)

[nzucker]

Actually this isn't the forecast from October that I'm referencing from my winter outlook thoughts and the -NAO does temporarily break after this amplification when the PV jets north. Outside of that, you are trying to suggest that the -NAO on models out beyond a week is proving me wrong about a warm up coming...yeah... You know, between your first shot at me with the MJO a while back and this crap, I'm beginning to think you are just being a d--k to me. That's okay, it's hard adding anything useful to the table when all you have is hearsay

I don't want to get into personal arguments but you did say we were heading for a major warm-up mid-month and now the ECM and GFS both show an arctic outbreak with -20C 850mb temperatures getting into the Mid-Atlantic/Appalachians. NAO/AO looks to hold on for the Holidays as well if the GFS ENS and ECM ENS are to be believed at all. I think you definitely have to admit you busted a bit with the breakdown of the NAO and forecasting warm anomalies in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest like 1975 where it actually looks to be a bitter month.

[Kaner587]

Correction: more than 6SD below average (incidentally, last year's -5.5 spell made the CPC change the charts from -4/4 to -6/6... wonder if they'll change them again if those members verify)

It's so funny its like met winter comes around (Dec 1st) and the AO plummets

[Nikolai]

Actually this isn't the forecast from October that I'm referencing from my winter outlook thoughts and the -NAO does temporarily break after this amplification when the PV jets north. Outside of that, you are trying to suggest that the -NAO on models out beyond a week is proving me wrong about a warm up coming...yeah... You know, between your first shot at me with the MJO a while back and this crap, I'm beginning to think you are just being a d--k to me. That's okay, it's hard adding anything useful to the table when all you have is hearsay

I'm not being a dick; you have alluded to a warm mid-December for quite some time now. Another post from just a week ago--

Well, the NAO may be governed by many things and all theories may be taken into account but keep in mind that the foundation of predicting this -NAO / cold period for the first half of December was based on AAM/forcing. Looking at a MJO diagram and then composting the h5 heights isn't going to cut it. Also, just because the MJO is in the center, doesn't mean there isn't forcing going on somewhere.

Say what you want but I think the forcing has been suggesting this cold period and I don't think the NAO is simply overpowering the signal. Now, once you form the block, yes it can trump signals for a while...but at some point the Pacific is going to keep sending the block unfavorable wave features until the point where it gets destroyed. The NAO has been negative for a while but the effects have taken a while to be felt, which is typical with the Pacific pattern we have been dealing with. Now with a nice PNA spike, that should amplify the cold for a while. The NAO has had plenty of dips over the last 10 days and will continue for the next 10 days. Are you suggesting another spike late Dec?

Everyone keeps saying the pattern hasn't started yet....true...but the NAO has been negative when the Greenland block first formed a week or so ago. Just because the East hasn't been constantly cold doesn't mean the NAO hasn't been there. So you are basically forecasting a -NAO from 11/20 through 1/1? It's got to give at some point and my guess is after the next solid dip in the first 10 days of December.

All the while, the forcing will continue to grow in the IO/Indonesia through December, making that Pacific sector flow very "fire hose-like" over time.

You have gone on record as saying you think the -NAO will fall apart and the Pac "firehose" will overwhelm the pattern after the beginning of this month... maybe it could still happen, but model guidance is currently pointing to the contrary. I just don't think it helps your credibility to say you called for this extreme -NAO period lasting well into mid-month when you did not.

[HM]

I don't want to get into personal arguments but you did say we were heading for a major warm-up mid-month and now the ECM and GFS both show an arctic outbreak with -20C 850mb temperatures getting into the Mid-Atlantic/Appalachians. NAO/AO looks to hold on for the Holidays as well if the GFS ENS and ECM ENS are to be believed at all. I think you definitely have to admit you busted a bit with the breakdown of the NAO and forecasting warm anomalies in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest like 1975 where it actually looks to be a bitter month.

I am not trying to back away from thoughtsl. My point to tacoman is being distorted into me trying to back away from something. Are you guys friggin serious? Why should I bother with this? Nik posts a damn post that starts with "assming model guidance is correct" about storm potentials and I am suppose to look bad right? Did it work? Are you guys kidding me?

My thoughts for the second half of Dec were posted and I said I had a cool anomaly in the SE and warm in the W-C states. You are verifying my thoughts with model solutions.

WTF man

[HM]

I'm not being a dick; you have alluded to a warm mid-December for quite some time now. Another post from just a week ago--

You have gone on record as saying you think the -NAO will fall apart and the Pac "firehose" will overwhelm the pattern after the beginning of this month... maybe it could still happen, but model guidance is currently pointing to the contrary. I just don't think it helps your credibility to say you called for this extreme -NAO period lasting well into mid-month when you did not.

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

Am I the one that's crazy?

[nzucker]

I am not trying to back away from thoughtsl. My point to tacoman is being distorted into me trying to back away from something. Are you guys friggin serious? Why should I bother with this? Nik posts a damn post that starts with "assming model guidance is correct" about storm potentials and I am suppose to look bad right? Did it work? Are you guys kidding me?

My thoughts for the second half of Dec were posted and I said I had a cool anomaly in the SE and warm in the W-C states. You are verifying my thoughts with model solutions.

WTF man

I'm sorry HM, don't mean to upset you.

I think you have to admit you are surprised by the extent of the blocking being shown, however. You said we would have a warm-up mid-month and now all guidance is showing very cold temperatures with a strong -AO/-NAO block. It's not like a model fantasy either, this is going to happen in some form with the -30C 850mb temperatures over Hudson Bay moving southward behind the powerful system that is showing up on every run of every model. The 12z ECM has most of the Northeast approaching -20C at 850mb, which is not the warm-up you forecasted. I think it's OK to admit making a mistake here as the blocking is honestly fooling everyone...no one would have thought we could sustain last winter's levels of the AO/NAO given the strong La Niña.

I also don't see much possibility of a massive warm-up in the Plains with the combination of the NAO and how the GOA low seems to be evolving into more of a Rex block, different from the usual +EPO configuration. I think there'll be at least one more shot of brutally cold air into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest after the arctic outbreak following the weekend system/cutter.

[Nikolai]

WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

Am I the one that's crazy?

Apparently.

Yeah, like I said, I have seen these anafront situations flop in the short range. It is just always interesting when these -EPO induced cold low level attacks happen when the mid/upper heights haven't responded. I agree about the temperature departures. I think another MJO event will get triggered late Nov/early Dec that propagates eastward through Indonesia. This could swiftly end the cold pattern after December 10th.

Yeah this is going to potentially set up a reverse warm anomaly for many in the northern 2/3s of the CONUS, outside of maybe the NW, for a 6-10 day period. As the MJO composites suggest, a phase 3-4-5 transition from where we are now would bring quite an impressive warm shot, outside of the southern states. Once the -NAO block is finished and the EPO goes significantly positive (as wavelengths become longer from both being a winter seasonal progression and the -NAO block going away), it is going to get ugly. At some point in late December, I expect a classic cold Northwest/North regime to return and the ridge to properly place over the Southeast. This classic regime looks to get heightened in early January, possibly setting off some serious storm systems across the Central States!

I am not attacking you--I just don't think you should be taking credit for forecasting a -NAO for mid-December when you have explicitly stated the opposite previously. Perhaps there is some miscommunication on your end.