Where we're at, where we're going

[tacoman25]

I know there was a little snow if France but I think that map is over doing it.

Nah, there's been a lot of widespread snowfall in France.

[nzucker]

Nah, there's been a lot of widespread snowfall in France.

There were -8C 850s down to Southern France so it's not a surprise there's snow cover there.

ECM shows an arctic outbreak for eastern Europe including Greece and Italy in the medium-long range

[wthrmn654]

i see no real big talks for the north east in terms of the next 2 weeks.... the storms are not players?

[usedtobe]

i see no real big talks for the north east in terms of the next 2 weeks.... the storms are not players?

For the northeast they probably are or might be, for my part of the mid atlantic, probably not. Today, I made a post with maps somewhere but not in this thread. Look in the northeast region thread, I'm sure will has discussed the chances up that way.

[VAwxman]

There were -8C 850s down to Southern France so it's not a surprise there's snow cover there.

ECM shows an arctic outbreak for eastern Europe including Greece and Italy in the medium-long range

Mega blocking FTW!

I'm not surprised that we got a period of decent blocking around the time frame in which this developed, as I think it was well telegraphed by various climate signals, but I personally am a little surprised at the duration / intensity of it. It is astoundingly resilient.

[tacoman25]

Mega blocking FTW!

I'm not surprised that we got a period of decent blocking around the time frame in which this developed, as I think it was well telegraphed by various climate signals, but I personally am a little surprised at the duration / intensity of it. It is astoundingly resilient.

Absolutely.

It's nice to see an honest response to what's going on. A lot of the people claiming the Nina was going to overpower blocking this winter have been awfully quiet about what's been happening the past couple weeks...

[BlizzardWx]

It certainly has been nice to see everything so blocky. I was a little worried that it might not happen this way but overall I feel good that I went "blocky" for my winter forecast. Seems to be even more than expected though. Not complaining!

[Jebman]

Absolutely.

It's nice to see an honest response to what's going on. A lot of the people claiming the Nina was going to overpower blocking this winter have been awfully quiet about what's been happening the past couple weeks...

I am happy to see the blocky set up but still feel that caution is in order since this winter may well turn out to be front end loaded with respect to snow for folks in the Mid Atlantic.

This winter's set up is going to be spectacular, in terms of lots and lots of snow, for the upper midwest, northern plains, the Northeast, and the Pacific Northwest. Some of those regions may break 200 year records for snowfall this winter. You'll definitely need a bigger snowblower in the usual Lake Effect Snow areas - Those folks will be buried by Dec 25 and that party will just be gettin' started.

I love the early December blockiness and am hoping for the best - But I still expect 1 to 5 inches of snow in my back yard through late May 2011.

We DID get ours last year, after all.

Now, it's the Pacific Northwest's turn!!!!!!!!

This is gonna be the winter that Mallow gets 8 feet of snow IN HIS BACKYARD!!!!!

Heck Yeah, baby!!! BRING. IT. ON.!!!!!!!!

[tacoman25]

It certainly has been nice to see everything so blocky. I was a little worried that it might not happen this way but overall I feel good that I went "blocky" for my winter forecast. Seems to be even more than expected though. Not complaining!

The main caveat to my winter forecast was that if I under-estimated blocking temps would be colder, especially in the East. I'm beginning to think that was the case. If you look at previous years that had a lot of blocking during this period, it didn't just go away the rest of the winter.

[usedtobe]

The 192 hour system that showed up on the gfs and euro last night is encouraging for those on the east as there at least is room for a good system on both sets of progs. The euro ensembles also liked having a storm but the mean kept it a little too far inland for most of the south of 40 group to cash in. I didn't check the superensemble analogs to see how many snowstorms showed up, but did note that all ten dates were from the 1950s and 1960s, a period when the negative nao dominating. 5 of the dates were associated with fairly strong la ninas. three of the dates were from 1955-1956, a year when the nao was negative most of the winter once the negative nao got going during the latter half of december, same held for 1954-1955. The other date from 1950-1951 which only had a negative nao during dec and then again in March. All those years had 10-12 inch of snow at dca for the season. I din't check farther north, I'll leave that to Unc w. MY comments about the pattern and the progs show how stupid it sometimes is trying to say what might happen beyond 5 days. The best could can usually do is couch things compared to climo and sometimes you'll still look quite dumb. I didn't like the pattern because of no 50 50 low yesterday, it's still missing today but the models don't seem to care. We'll see. I'd like the pattern if I lived north of PHL. We guys south just have to wait to see whether the euro or GFS idea is best.

[eurojosh]

The main caveat to my winter forecast was that if I under-estimated blocking temps would be colder, especially in the East. I'm beginning to think that was the case. If you look at previous years that had a lot of blocking during this period, it didn't just go away the rest of the winter.

Speaking of that, all the Sept-Oct-early Nov seasonal forecasts for the winter saw a strengthening el Nina that would lift temps in the East after December; Based on current observations and predicted patterns, are we sticking with that, pushing it back a couple of weeks, or re-looking the seasonal forecast as being significantly more impacted by NAO than the historical/comparative climatography led us to believe?

[Lee]

The 192 hour system that showed up on the gfs and euro last night is encouraging for those on the east as there at least is room for a good system on both sets of progs. The euro ensembles also liked having a storm but the mean kept it a little too far inland for most of the south of 40 group to cash in. I didn't check the superensemble analogs to see how many snowstorms showed up, but did note that all ten dates were from the 1950s and 1960s, a period when the negative nao dominating. 5 of the dates were associated with fairly strong la ninas. three of the dates were from 1955-1956, a year when the nao was negative most of the winter once the negative nao got going during the latter half of december, same held for 1954-1955. The other date from 1950-1951 which only had a negative nao during dec and then again in March. All those years had 10-12 inch of snow at dca for the season. I din't check farther north, I'll leave that to Unc w. MY comments about the pattern and the progs show how stupid it sometimes is trying to say what might happen beyond 5 days. The best could can usually do is couch things compared to climo and sometimes you'll still look quite dumb. I didn't like the pattern because of no 50 50 low yesterday, it's still missing today but the models don't seem to care. We'll see. I'd like the pattern if I lived north of PHL. We guys south just have to wait to see whether the euro or GFS idea is best.

Wes, yeah those analogues appeared to be better on the western slopes of the Apps and Ohio Valley snow wise.

[BlizzardWx]

The main caveat to my winter forecast was that if I under-estimated blocking temps would be colder, especially in the East. I'm beginning to think that was the case. If you look at previous years that had a lot of blocking during this period, it didn't just go away the rest of the winter.

I agree. I went pretty warm in the west for december which looks good and cold in the NE but the negatively anomalies didn't go down nearly far enough. Mid atlantic looks a lot better than I was thinking. I hope the 500mb pattern shakes up just a little so we can join the fun. Been a touch boring in our neighborhoods lately.

[tacoman25]

Current/upcoming pattern looks almost exactly like Dec 1950/1955.

[usedtobe]

Current/upcoming pattern looks almost exactly like Dec 1950/1955.

The composite for the two years had Jan-Feb with above normal temps over the eastern 2/3 of the country.

[tacoman25]

The composite for the two years had Jan-Feb with above normal temps over the eastern 2/3 of the country.

Here's Jan-Mar for those two years.

Anyway, I think it's clear at this point that older Nina analogs are leading the way... 2007, 1999, 1998, and 1988 haven't been close thus far.

[Analog96]

Absolutely.

It's nice to see an honest response to what's going on. A lot of the people claiming the Nina was going to overpower blocking this winter have been awfully quiet about what's been happening the past couple weeks...

Where is Ryan and his blowtorch December?

[uncle W]

this month is starting off as cold as Dec. 1954...It was cold on the east coast but very mild in the northern mid section of the country that month..With the blocking we have I doubt it will be mild there this year...The NAO averaged negative January thru March 55 with little snow to show for it in NYC...1962-63 was another -nao year with below normal snowfall in NYC...

[Jebman]

Definitely feelin' the effects of some kick-ass blocking right now in the East, however things turn out for the rest of the winter south of 40N

[okie333]

OMG mega west-based -NAO on the 0z ECMWF operational and the 0z ECMWF ensembles (frankly the ensemble version is more impressive given that it's a day-10 ensemble). Allan just changed the graph due to the recently observed low values... and the operational ECM shows it going off that chart too (old chart was down to -300, new chart is down to -500)! Now if only that would retrograde into a -AO... many GFS ensemble members show it doing just that near day 12, bringing the AO off the charts (which ironically were changed last December due to a similar situation). EPO looks to be going negative or at least neutral at the same time as per many GFS ensemble members as well. Very cold Christmas for most of the nation if this verifies.

2010120600z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
NAO value for forecast hour 000: -386.759613
NAO value for forecast hour 024: -350.864563
NAO value for forecast hour 048: -290.821655
NAO value for forecast hour 072: -210.884033
NAO value for forecast hour 096: -159.014374
NAO value for forecast hour 120: -182.175781
NAO value for forecast hour 144: -252.48848
NAO value for forecast hour 168: -273.989014
NAO value for forecast hour 192: -325.280212
NAO value for forecast hour 216: -488.048828
NAO value for forecast hour 240: -652.929443
NAO value for Day 1-5: -238.752075
NAO value for Day 6-10: -398.54718

2010120600z ECMWF Ensemble RUN NAO Values
NAO value for forecast hour 000: -386.667694
NAO value for forecast hour 024: -357.772583
NAO value for forecast hour 048: -294.455719
NAO value for forecast hour 072: -215.98616
NAO value for forecast hour 096: -182.45549
NAO value for forecast hour 120: -185.387573
NAO value for forecast hour 144: -224.041718
NAO value for forecast hour 168: -219.424316
NAO value for forecast hour 192: -241.598785
NAO value for forecast hour 216: -325.742065
NAO value for forecast hour 240: -413.862976
NAO value for Day 1-5: -247.211502
NAO value for Day 6-10: -284.93396

ECMWF Operational:

ECMWF Ensemble:

GFS Ensemble AO:

[Isotherm]

Strong La Nina, eh? Those that went with a warm/blowtorch picture w/ +NAO dominant this winter are in trouble IMO.

[tacoman25]

Strong La Nina, eh? Those that went with a warm/blowtorch picture w/ +NAO dominant this winter are in trouble IMO.

It's still early...but the evidence for solar-induced blocking is mounting. How else can we explain if we see a big -NAO strong La Nina following a huge -NAO strong El Nino?

Massive NH blocking signal shows no signs of letting up. I went with a weakly -NAO in my winter forecast, and I'm becoming convinced that this is going to be wrong and I'll be too warm for the eastern half of the nation.

[A-L-E-X]

It's still early...but the evidence for solar-induced blocking is mounting. How else can we explain if we see a big -NAO strong La Nina following a huge -NAO strong El Nino?

Massive NH blocking signal shows no signs of letting up. I went with a weakly -NAO in my winter forecast, and I'm becoming convinced that this is going to be wrong and I'll be too warm for the eastern half of the nation.

be careful though-- it can flip on a dime.... textbook case was 89-90

[Nikolai]

be careful though-- it can flip on a dime.... textbook case was 89-90

That year was -neutral, but yes, the point is we can easily flip.

Wow, it's remarkable seeing these blocking signs as strong or stronger than last winter already. I think the -NAO/-AO couplet gives us hope for mid-December; everything is in very strong agreement that we should see one of our coldest December periods of the past decade+ this month. The agreement is just astounding, and it's even funnier to see the AO plunging off the newly modified charts AGAIN.

[tacoman25]

be careful though-- it can flip on a dime.... textbook case was 89-90

Yes, but the signal for -NAO has been quite sustained for over 2 years now. Looking at the greater context of what's been going on, I don't think a 1989-90 scenario is likely.

Also, if you look over at the Pacific, the Aleutian blocking has been remarkably persistent so far this cold season as well. This is exactly what studies regarding solar influence on blocking have shown: stronger, more sustained blocking over the NE Pacific/Aleutians and the North Atlantic/Greenland.

[nzucker]

Yes, but the signal for -NAO has been quite sustained for over 2 years now. Looking at the greater context of what's been going on, I don't think a 1989-90 scenario is likely.

No, I think it's going to keep up as a result of the low solar regime.

I'm glad I went with a -NAO in my winter forecast although I said it would be only be weakly negative to hedge against the influence of the strong La Niña. Looks as if I should have been more aggressive but it was hard to do given the ENSO signal.

[A-L-E-X]

No, I think it's going to keep up as a result of the low solar regime.

I'm glad I went with a -NAO in my winter forecast although I said it would be only be weakly negative to hedge against the influence of the strong La Niña. Looks as if I should have been more aggressive but it was hard to do given the ENSO signal.

Nate, do you think the -NAO signal will become more neutral towards Jan and Feb and go more negative again in March, like it did in 55-56?  Or could it be a more sustained neg NAO this winter?

[A-L-E-X]

That year was -neutral, but yes, the point is we can easily flip.

Wow, it's remarkable seeing these blocking signs as strong or stronger than last winter already. I think the -NAO/-AO couplet gives us hope for mid-December; everything is in very strong agreement that we should see one of our coldest December periods of the past decade+ this month. The agreement is just astounding, and it's even funnier to see the AO plunging off the newly modified charts AGAIN.

Could you imagine what the weather would have been like without a strong nina?  A weak nina with this kind of NAO would be absolutely crazy around here-- possibly 95-96 repeat.

[Nikolai]

No, I think it's going to keep up as a result of the low solar regime.

I'm glad I went with a -NAO in my winter forecast although I said it would be only be weakly negative to hedge against the influence of the strong La Niña. Looks as if I should have been more aggressive but it was hard to do given the ENSO signal.

I wonder what implications the current/forecasted blocking have for January and February... I went slightly cold for January and warm for February, with the switch occurring roughly mid-January. Could the current blocking episode be indicative of what's to come later this winter (as happened last winter), and if so, could we average cold all three months? I don't think we'll see a cold February, but I think the current episode could foreshadow a much colder January (at least through mid-month) than many anticipated...

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, but the signal for -NAO has been quite sustained for over 2 years now. Looking at the greater context of what's been going on, I don't think a 1989-90 scenario is likely.

Also, if you look across the the Pacific, the Aleutian blocking has been remarkably persistent so far this cold season as well. This is exactly what studies regarding solar influence on blocking have shown: stronger, more sustained blocking over the NE Pacific/Aleutians and the North Atlantic/Greenland.

This winter could present a textbook case of the solar influence.  I know you dont like to use old analogs, but we might have to trot out 1903-04 and 1916-17.