phil882 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Looking this morning, I do have a bigger concern that throws some caution in the wind in the short term. There is way too much cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin going on ahead of our disturbance. Invest 94L is competing against another wave that is organizing in the ITCZ around 11N 47W. There wave is in a better thermodynamic environment, embedded in higher TPW and warmer waters. What this feature is doing currently is its keeping Invest 94L further north, and may be partially responsible for its further north than expected track so far. The further north track is will will hurt Invest 94L in the short term, as it ingests dry air from the SAL to its north. the system ahead of it also might rob it of important southerly inflow if it starts feeding into this new disturbance rather than Invest 94L. Overall the Atlantic basin is in a great state atmospheric wise for development. However, the models seem to be projecting that there will be too many areas of low-level vorticity that will be competing against one another. The problem with this is that stratiform convection produced by these disturbances enhances anticyclonic outflow, which enhances upper level troughs and lows on their periphery as upper level ridging is enhanced. You need a certain distance appart in order for tropical disturbances to peacefully coexist, and it seems the Atlantic is a bit too crowded at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Reed Timmer is mentioning a potent hurricane to impact the Carolina's on August 30th.... he should work for accuweather. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Who? That man has the sweetest up-armored Chevy Suburban painted in OU crimson anyone has ever seen. And he is working on his met doctorate, so he could join the forum as a red tagger. But he wouldn't. I suspect he wouldn't like questioning. Storm2K has a policy, no questioning or criticizing red tags, that might be more his speed. I liked the episode where the outer bulletproof glass window wouldn't roll up on the armored Suburban, and he got cut by flying glass half an inch from his eye. So close to awesome. Smug and commercial, but until his show was cancelled, a good source of post-hurricane season and pre-tornado season weather p0rn. Anyway, back to being glass half full optimistic, since maybe the GFS is trending Euro, the Euro day 10 of a well defined but undeveloped wave heading for the Yucatan, with strong ridging to its North apparently suggesting continued WNW motion, not a prediction by any means, but this would seem the time of year a wave could develop quickly on its way towards Tampico. Other than Josh, not as much fun for the board as an SNE hit, but still a worthwhile result. Vis satellite staring, speaking of competition, I'm not sure the area of convection closer to 10ºN doesn't have it own hint of cyclonic turning, competition in the mean term, but if the Southern blob can maybe pull the NHC tagged center further South, it might be a good thing. And the envelope of disturbed weather could suggest a large system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 That man has the sweetest up-armored Chevy Suburban painted in OU crimson anyone has ever seen. And he is working on his met doctorate, so he could join the forum as a red tagger. But he wouldn't. I suspect he wouldn't like questioning. Storm2K has a policy, no questioning or criticizing red tags, that might be more his speed. I liked the episode where the outer bulletproof glass window wouldn't roll up on the armored Suburban, and he got cut by flying glass half an inch from his eye. So close to awesome. Smug and commercial, but until his show was cancelled, a good source of post-hurricane season and pre-tornado season weather p0rn. That's awesome and everything, but I seriously have never heard of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Anyway, not to sound gulfcanish, it is keeping my natural born optimism in check that dynamic guidance, including GFDL and HWRF, and the reliable globals aren't mondo gung-ho on this. But we still have the less reliable statistical models. And one 6Z GFS perturbation suggests something well below 984 mb for SNE, so I can't be glass half full optimistic on a NYC/SNE hit, but I can be glass 5/64th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 There is so much wrong with this post that I don't even know where to begin. Perhaps you haven't been in Texas very long. One only needs to go back to 2008 to know that Gustav and Ike suggest otherwise. You do realize that both of those cyclones never regained their prior intensity after crossing cuba dont you? Not the best examples to try and make a point. Gustav only had a very brief crossing of Cuba but it so disrupted the inner core it couldnt recover under ideal conditions. And Ike had about 4 double wind maximums throughout its entire life after the core was disrupted over cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 You do realize that both of those cyclones never regained their prior intensity after crossing cuba dont you? Not the best examples to try and make a point. Gustav only had a very brief crossing of Cuba but it so disrupted the inner core it couldnt recover under ideal conditions. And Ike had about 4 double wind maximums throughout its entire life after the core was disrupted over cuba. You do realize that Ike came at Cuba from the northeast, right? So your comment about it best that these storms go north of the Caribbean is not 100% valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 You do realize that Ike came at Cuba from the northeast, right? So your comment about it best that these storms go north of the Caribbean is not 100% valid. 00z FIM shows the track that would be ideal. And yes I know where Ike came from. It is best for this to track N of the caribbean because given how far north it is and that the models break the ridge down it would most certainly interact with those islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Shall we not discuss the anomaly from hell that is Ike, and lol @ FIM model. As for 94L, the main target area remains the southeastern United States if 94L can develop, it's quite comical because every single GFS ensemble member is more amplified than the OP, and as a result, farther NE in terms of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 You do realize that both of those cyclones never regained their prior intensity after crossing cuba dont you? Not the best examples to try and make a point. Gustav only had a very brief crossing of Cuba but it so disrupted the inner core it couldnt recover under ideal conditions. And Ike had about 4 double wind maximums throughout its entire life after the core was disrupted over cuba. I suggest you brush up on some tropical history before you categorically dismiss any storm crossing Hispaniola or Cuba... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Not 100% sure about this yet, but I may have to take a break from this system for a while. Phil has some very valid concerns about other areas of vort disrupting 94L and altering its track to some degree. The GFS was showing this a few days ago, but not to this extent. If this continues to get bumped up north, we could be waiting a few more days for development due to TUTT intraction and dry air entrainment, although the 20 knot heading won't help either. Still way too many variables that need to settle before we know what may actually happen with this. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Not a bad consensus between the 0z Euro and 12z GFS @ day 10... with the GFS just a tad faster and north, but by little, especially considering the time range. Increases the confidence of 94L being inside the Caribbean by day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Overall, I believe that if 94L goes north or south of the islands, it will be a major concern for the conus. 12z GFS highlights the strong gulf potential if it avoids land disruption. These runs will keep changing constantly, as mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 After a hand full of GFS runs showing a weak system in the Western Carib...the 12z GFS maintains a stronger core and then explodes in the GOM around 240 heading for Texas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 It's a P4 Popo's Party Pad Perturbator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Pretty good consensus from the HFIP models. South of Hispaniola could save this from the TUTT (at least to a degree) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 It's a P4 Popo's Party Pad Perturbator You realize Popo was born in Mexico, legally became a US citizen in the 1980s, and after years working a union job, is finally enjoying retirement. And we had nowhere to go on Summer weekends in 2009. And the fun we have fishing in the surf. Like the time Tio Mario caught a 35 pound redfish. I catch mostly croaker and hardhead. Besides, Josh got no closer than Texas City, whereas he can get within a couple of miles of the Florida coast w/ almost no chance of drowning and still experience near max winds. ETA: This storm has had 1938 written all over it anyway, and Metfan has assured me he will drive to the Hamptons if that occurs. And I like Metfan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 94L and the friend who mooches off of vorticity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Spinning around nicely. Lot of outflow on this thing. Long bands. One that goes off to the east is massive. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Can you post the link for the HFIP models? Thanks! Pretty good consensus from the HFIP models. South of Hispaniola could save this from the TUTT (at least to a degree) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Can you post the link for the HFIP models? Thanks! Sure HFIP Main OPS page (Pretty much everything related to the project) HFIP Model Tracks (Includes 1.5 and 2) GFS EnKF Control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 FWIW, the someone less trusted CMC and NoGaps are showing or suggesting fish,,,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 GFS has it Cuba to Houston. GGEM is Northeast of Bermuda. Some nice agreement, Accuweather should warn the entire basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I have other things to do now, but early returns on 12Z GFS ensembles, 1004 mb or stronger as a discriminator, the op GFS appears to be on the Southern/Western edge of the guidance. Or ECUSA would seem to have ensemble support, Texas, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Up to 70% might be TD 10 by tonight or tomorrow morning. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Up to 70% now on the 2 pm TWO. The problem with this system may be that it may not get it's circulation vertically stacked, because it is moving so quickly, so that it won't intensify much. This is a similar problem as Ernesto and TD 7 (which later became Helene when it slowed down in the SW GOMEX). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I suggest you brush up on some tropical history before you categorically dismiss any storm crossing Hispaniola or Cuba... Did ed take over your acct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Circulation seems to be tightening up despite some dry air interaction. Could also argue theres a bit of a WSW movement. Vorticity disruption may not be hampering this too much at the moment. Maybe its just the models not handling this process well. GFS EnKF control has a much more organized system than the OP GFS FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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