Tropical Storm Isaac, Part 1: Moving Through The Eastern Caribbean Sea

[HurricaneJosh]

94L may be consolidating farther north than expected.

Ugh, yeah-- that would kind of suck. But I see it, too.

[Superstorm93]

Ugh, yeah-- that would kind of suck. But I see it, too.

Less creedence to the 18Z GFS if that's true.

It would be a whole different game. The ridge seems a bit too strong to bring it where the models were a few days ago.

94L seems to be a now-castig storm more than anything else at this point.

Fun Fact time:

[wxsmwhrms]

I agree that it looks like consolidation around 15N - but unless I am looking at something wrong, from looking at the 850 mb vorticity on the globals, isn't that the general latitude at which it was supposed to take place? I would estimate the GFS forecast to be around 15N, 35W for 12Z Sunday.

[phil882]

Less creedence to the 18Z GFS if that's true.

Not really... The SAL is stronger to the north which will curtail development and keep this system relatively weak. The GFS on several model cycles is showing a south of due west track around 50W as the system struggles to get better organized due to dry air intrusions.

[EasternUSWX]

As expected up to 60%

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED

ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF

ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS

SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20

MPH.

[TropicalWX]

We'll be in a boat in Bermuda Friday morning heading back to NYC. I'll do all I can to get video if we are around anything or see the ocean swells.

Timing appears to coincide "nicely".

I am leaving Sunday Aug 26 on Cruise from NYC to PR,St.Thomas, Gran Turk..Ugh

[Srain]

FWIW the GFDL is not impressed with developing 94L while the HWRF suggests a moderate TS moving through the Antilles.

[thewxmann]

To be honest, I'd be shocked if this gets to hurricane status before the Lesser Antilles. And even after that, with the Caribbean LLJ being on steroids this year and the possibility of Hispaniola in its sights... I know it's stupid and all to look at possibilities beyond 5 days, but let's just say this has been a major c*cktease. Damn models.

If this trend continues, I have a hard time believing this will amount to anything unless it tracks over the western Caribbean. I wouldn't be surprised however if it ends up in that region.

[Natester]

There's a TUTT just northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The big red rectangle contains the TUTT while the big red square contains 94L. Edited via Paint.

[hurricaneman]

I don't have it but the latest ASCAT shows the edge of the LLCC, but it looks like its decoupled from the MLC, the same story as the previous systems like Helene and Ernesto before it except the mid level flow is faster than the surface flow. The only positive I can see right now is no real big dry air intrusion

[Superstorm93]

All this optimism is killing me.

We have a long time to watch this. Not sure why we're all freaking out now.

[Alfoman]

All this optimism is killing me.

We have a long time to watch this. Not sure why we're all freaking out now.

[HurricaneJosh]

The only thing I really care about at this point is the initialization latitude, because that has long-term implications. Everything else is whateverz.

[free_man]

It looks to me like a longer-range track brings it near or N or PR, then S Bahamas or DR/Hispanola.

[Minnesota Meso]

interesting indeed, not to much to get overly excited about yet (the key word is yet), GFS ensemble forecast shows many of it's members on a track to effect the SE US. Again way to early to get excited, but this bears watching.But everything looks to keep it west of Bermuda at this time.

Current SST's NE of Hispaniola.. courtesy of TWC

.

[Ed Lizard]

Natural optimism time, from a week out, it takes just a tiny bit to be wrong on the Hispaniola hit, and the bend back towards Florida, especially if 94L avoids Hispaniola, suggests that unless it does indeed die in the Caribbean, which is always possible, and in which case it wasn't really a fish anyway, the GFS model trnds offer serious hope that 94L is not a fish.

[gulfcane]

GFS and Euro have a really good handle on this now. West at 20-25kts as a 40-50mph tropical storm and then significant interaction with hispaniola and cuba until dissipation. All the previous runs were before this thing spent a couple days off Africa. Now the models are seeing exactly what I suspected might occur. Weak and west/dissipation or strong and out similar to the FIM model. GFS has only shown a US hurricane landfall on 1 single run so it's been fairly consistent. Oh, and this is very similar to Ernesto. NHC and everyone wanted to call for significant intensification despite what the GFS and Euro said. I doubt they make the same mistake twice. Much ado about nothing for 94L.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS and Euro have a really good handle on this now. West at 20-25kts as a 40-50mph tropical storm and then significant interaction with hispaniola and cuba until dissipation. All the previous runs were before this thing spent a couple days off Africa. Now the models are seeing exactly what I suspected might occur. Weak and west/dissipation or strong and out similar to the FIM model. GFS has only shown a US hurricane landfall on 1 single run so it's been fairly consistent. Oh, and this is very similar to Ernesto. NHC and everyone wanted to call for significant intensification despite what the GFS and Euro said. I doubt they make the same mistake twice. Much ado about nothing for 94L.

Expert analysis.

ETA

6Z and 12Z GFS had hits on the US, BTW...

[Analog96]

GFS and Euro have a really good handle on this now. West at 20-25kts as a 40-50mph tropical storm and then significant interaction with hispaniola and cuba until dissipation. All the previous runs were before this thing spent a couple days off Africa. Now the models are seeing exactly what I suspected might occur. Weak and west/dissipation or strong and out similar to the FIM model. GFS has only shown a US hurricane landfall on 1 single run so it's been fairly consistent. Oh, and this is very similar to Ernesto. NHC and everyone wanted to call for significant intensification despite what the GFS and Euro said. I doubt they make the same mistake twice. Much ado about nothing for 94L.

How can anyone speak so authoritatively about something that's a week out, as if they KNOW exactly what's going to happen?

[Superstorm93]

Expert analysis.

Just rainstorm Jr. trying to troll. First signs that the system may struggle down the road and everyone loses control.

Moral of the story: If you think this is going to bust, don't post ridiculous statements trying to vent. Instead, take a break from the system.

[Riptide]

Just rainstorm Jr. trying to troll. First signs that the system may struggle down the road and everyone loses control.

This is probably related to the numerous fail events that have occured in this area, such as TD7 and Florence, not surprised at all.

[Ed Lizard]

Just rainstorm Jr. trying to troll. First signs that the system may struggle down the road and everyone loses control.

The Albany crew clearly can explain this better, the various influences on TC genesis from CCKW and the MJO and the such, but I know the MJO is different now than it was when Ernesto struggled most of its life. Not to mention 2 weeks closer to the climatological peak, which probably has a reason beyond mere chance for being the climatological peak.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/

Even I can hotlink this.

[phil882]

GFS and Euro have a really good handle on this now. West at 20-25kts as a 40-50mph tropical storm and then significant interaction with hispaniola and cuba until dissipation. All the previous runs were before this thing spent a couple days off Africa. Now the models are seeing exactly what I suspected might occur. Weak and west/dissipation or strong and out similar to the FIM model. GFS has only shown a US hurricane landfall on 1 single run so it's been fairly consistent. Oh, and this is very similar to Ernesto. NHC and everyone wanted to call for significant intensification despite what the GFS and Euro said. I doubt they make the same mistake twice. Much ado about nothing for 94L.

This is beyond the 120 hour range that is worth giving significant weight to the models in the tropics. The GFS and ECMWF DO NOT have a good handle on the system beyond this period as evidence in the large shifts we have seen in the last few days. You really have to keep yourself from saying these blanket statements, or the mods are going to be on your tail pretty soon.

The Albany crew clearly can explain this better, the various influences on TC genesis from CCKW and the MJO and the such, but I know the MJO is different now than it was when Ernesto struggled most of its life. Not to mention 2 weeks closer to the climatological peak, which probably has a reason beyond mere chance for being the climatological peak.

http://www.atmos.alb...f/roundy/waves/

Even I can hotlink this.

Yep, we are in a favorable MJO phase for enhanced convection and overall upper level divergence over the Atlantic basin. The CCKW that has been moving across the Atlantic is now over the Cape Verde Islands / African coastline, so Invest 94L is in the favorable easterly upper level flow on the backside of the upper level divergence. It is rather unlikely that Invest 94L will experience the same westerly shear that plagued both Ernesto and Helene. If anything, it will likely be easterly shear that keeps 94L from organizing in the short term.

[gulfcane]

The silver lining is the 0z gfs ensembles were further west up the east coast. If this can somehow pass just N of shredderola and cut up through the bahamas as a organized cyclone that would be the best case scenario. Might not be bad at this point if it forms further up around 15N or higher. If it enters the caribbean then it is bound to have interaction with cuba and everything else so best if it can somehow pass north.

Edit: Funny to watch 0z CMC plow through a ridge like that.

[andyhb]

Current SST's NE of Hispaniola.. courtesy of TWC

Juicy.

The silver lining is the 0z gfs ensembles were further west up the east coast. If this can somehow pass just N of shredderola and cut up through the bahamas as a organized cyclone that would be the best case scenario. Might not be bad at this point if it forms further up around 15N or higher. If it enters the caribbean then it is bound to have interaction with cuba and everything else so best if it can somehow pass north.

Edit: Funny to watch 0z CMC plow through a ridge like that.

That's most certainly not set in stone yet.

[aljareer]

hi all .

ECMWF Seasonal range forecast : ( Tropical storm density anomaly ) in months, SONDJF :

Forecast start ( 1 aug 2012 )

thanks to all .

[MnWeatherman]

Reed Timmer is mentioning a potent hurricane to impact the Carolina's on August 30th.... he should work for accuweather.

[HurricaneJosh]

Reed Timmer is mentioning a potent hurricane to impact the Carolina's on August 30th.... he should work for accuweather.

Totally. He's a total hype machine.

[turtlehurricane]

Reed Timmer is mentioning a potent hurricane to impact the Carolina's on August 30th.... he should work for accuweather.

Someone needs to call him out if he's going to spread misinformation to the public like this, simply unacceptable.

[Srain]

The silver lining is the 0z gfs ensembles were further west up the east coast. If this can somehow pass just N of shredderola and cut up through the bahamas as a organized cyclone that would be the best case scenario. Might not be bad at this point if it forms further up around 15N or higher. If it enters the caribbean then it is bound to have interaction with cuba and everything else so best if it can somehow pass north.

Edit: Funny to watch 0z CMC plow through a ridge like that.

There is so much wrong with this post that I don't even know where to begin. Perhaps you haven't been in Texas very long. One only needs to go back to 2008 to know that Gustav and Ike suggest otherwise.