Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 When's the last time a solid Category 4 Hurricane struck Puerto Rico? Hugo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 FWIW the 00Z Euro has it very weak, not even storm strength all the way to 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Well Euro has it an open wave at 144 hours because its moving so damn fast. Approaching Hispaniola in 6 days is unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Fwiw, the IVCN is at 110 knots at 120 hours. Quite the difference from the ECMWF. Tomorrow's runs should be interesting. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Well Euro has it an open wave at 144 hours before its moving so damn fast. Approaching Hispaniola in 6 days is unreasonable. Not necessarily. Both Ernesto and Hermine moved very fast through the Atlantic MDR thanks to a very strong mid-level ridge. For Example, Helene moved from 30W to 70W in around 6 days. If Invest 94L does not develop, a fast moving tropical wave is certainly capable of attaining that forward motion. With that said, I agree that the ECMWF seems unlikely, as we are in both a favorable MJO state with a CCKW currently over the disturbance. These equatorial wave features support the robust development highlighted by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Not necessarily. Both Ernesto and Hermine moved very fast through the Atlantic MDR thanks to a very strong mid-level ridge. For Example, Hermine moved from 30W to 70W in around 6 days. If Invest 94L does not develop, a fast moving tropical wave is certainly capable of attaining that forward motion. With that said, I agree that the ECMWF seems unlikely, as we are in both a favorable MJO state with a CCKW currently over the disturbance. These equatorial wave features support the robust development highlighted by the GFS. What year ernesto are you talking about? This yrs was POS and it moved quickly, but nothing near what the Euro is showing for 94L. And what yr Hermine are you talking about? And I mention forward speed as a limiting factor from Stacy Stewart at the NHC discussing the limiting impact it can have when the speed is as extreme as what ECMWF is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What year ernesto are you talking about? This yrs was POS and it moved quickly, but nothing near what the Euro is showing for 94L. And what yr Hermine are you talking about? And I mention forward speed as a limiting factor from Stacy Stewart at the NHC discussing the limiting impact it can have when the speed is as extreme as what ECMWF is showing. Probably meant Helene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What year ernesto are you talking about? This yrs was POS and it moved quickly, but nothing near what the Euro is showing for 94L. And what yr Hermine are you talking about? And I mention forward speed as a limiting factor from Stacy Stewart at the NHC discussing the limiting impact it can have when the speed is as extreme as what ECMWF is showing. Yea I meant Helene... Ernesto was only slightly slower. Typically TC that move with very rapid pace are lacking convection and not vertically stacked with their mid-level circulation center, if there is one. That is what the ECMWF is depicting as the system progresses westward across the Atlantic and into the Eastern Caribbean. Again, I think this is an unlikely solution given the current atmospheric pattern over the tropical Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 6Z GFS has a very happy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 6Z GFS has a very happy solution. It skims NYC and slams into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Meh. The ensembles remain rather lack luster concerning a future SEP, but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I posted yesterday's 0Z and 12Z GFS ensemble 500 mb means at 300 hours and 288 hours, and there was a trend Westward, and the trend is even more pronounced to the SW on last night's 0Z GFS 500 mb ensemble means at 276 hours. dProg/dT suggests a possible ECUSA threat. This far out ensembles and trends may be more informative than individual op runs, even though the 6Z op GFS is interesting. ETA: Euro solution more potentially interesting locally, an undeveloped but defined wave entering the Gulf, but 94L looks pretty healthy on the SSD Central Atlantic satellite loops (should get a floater soon, I'd think). Maybe Euro forecast involves the dry air to the N and W on CIMSS TPW Mimic loop although light shear, and Easterly at that, would seem to protect it somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 We'll be in a boat in Bermuda Friday morning heading back to NYC. I'll do all I can to get video if we are around anything or see the ocean swells. Timing appears to coincide "nicely". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Gulfcane, let me be a little bit more blunt today: voluntarily post less or someone else will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 12z GFS has our system interacting with the mountains of Haiti by Day 7 moving WNW...this looks like a possible Florida or Fla Keys destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 System just north of the coast of Cuba at 216 moving WNW...it remains in tact through the mountains. Watch out Keys Day 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Takes a sharp northwest turn between Day's 9-10 and really deepens off the East Coast of Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Heading for Southeast North Carolina by 300 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Mid-Atlantic and New England's monster in the GFS fantasy land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Looks like it's taking the same path as Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 GFS brings this out of the Bahamas, grazing Florida, then has a landfall in NC. Scrapes all of the eastern states thereafter. What to take away? This run was weaker and further west. Might be something to keep an eye on if it continues. We have a certain European friend who doesn't even develop this. I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK--PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 14N AND 50W ON 21/1800Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I'm watching almost 23 year old video from WSOC-TV on YouTube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Flooding rain for me via 12z GFS. BOOK IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Meh. The ensembles remain rather lack luster concerning a future SEP, but I guess we'll see. OT, but Gordon looks NICE on that satellite image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Up to 50% already. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Recurve being pushed another 5 degrees west to about 63 degrees before jaunting northwestward with the 12z run. Nice trend we have going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I think this will eventually make a sharp turn to the NW, but the question is when it will do so. It could keep on trending west and become a concern for the Gulf Coast, or it could stop trending west and become a concern for the East Coast. Certainly, I think the United States needs to watch this one, as this one could be a formidable Tropcal Cyclone by the time it nears the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Hopefully the GFDL and HWRF will be run for 94L within the next 24 hours. Un-nested HWRF has this in the eastern Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I think this will eventually make a sharp turn to the NW, but the question is when it will do so. It could keep on trending west and become a concern for the Gulf Coast, or it could stop trending west and become a concern for the East Coast. Certainly, I think the United States needs to watch this one, as this one could be a formidable Tropcal Cyclone by the time it nears the United States. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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