Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 850bm and 700mb vort have become significantly better aligned when compared to last night. The 500mb level is still a bit displaced to the south. (As of 15 UTC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 850bm and 700mb vort have become significantly better aligned when compared to last night. The 500mb level is still a bit displaced to the south. (As of 15 UTC) Rotation is easily discernible, with a pivot a bit south of 16N on a visible loop. These structural changes are probably the start of steady intensification later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 UKMET is now final landfall at the FL/AL border and even NOGAPS is Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 UKMET is now final landfall at the FL/AL border and even NOGAPS is Pensacola. Canadian is now the right outlier at AQQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Canadian is now the right outlier at AQQ. Not sure if it is the crappy graphic output of the GGEM, but it looks as though a fist LF is in the everglades...needless to say the East Coast can take one hand off the "preparations book".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Not sure if it is the crappy graphic output of the GGEM, but it looks as though a fist LF is in the everglades...needless to say the East Coast can take one hand off the "preparations book".... No, you're right, it does. And technically the NAM is the right outlier taking it to just E of MIA, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Live rapid scan loop of Isaac ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/ABI/HD/SRSOR/800x900_GOES_B1_RSRSO_ISAAC_animated_2012236_111500_182_2012236_134100_182_X.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Live rapid scan loop of Isaac ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/ABI/HD/SRSOR/800x900_GOES_B1_RSRSO_ISAAC_animated_2012236_111500_182_2012236_134100_182_X.gif I absolutely love SRSO. Thanks for posting! Is there any root link to access these in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Recon showing east winds and 1004 mb extrap pressure at 15.7N, 66.3W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 No, you're right, it does. And technically the NAM is the right outlier taking it to just E of MIA, LOL. Euro has been in a boat in the GOM for the last 3 days....casting a line over the FL pennisula and reeling in one model at a time....of course all that reeling has moved the boat a bit toward the fish!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Recon showing east winds and 1004 mb extrap pressure at 15.7N, 66.3W. yup and here's the next set URNT15 KNHC 231758 AF300 0709A ISAAC HDOB 22 20120823 175000 1544N 06623W 8429 01530 0045 +180 +180 118005 005 023 002 01 175030 1542N 06624W 8433 01528 0046 +180 +180 137003 004 020 002 01 175100 1541N 06625W 8428 01532 0044 +170 +170 175001 002 019 000 01 175130 1540N 06626W 8429 01530 0041 +180 +174 028001 002 015 000 00 175200 1539N 06627W 8429 01529 0041 +181 +175 015002 002 014 000 00 175230 1537N 06629W 8433 01528 0041 +180 +180 048002 003 013 001 03 175300 1537N 06630W 8429 01530 0043 +180 +180 092003 003 /// /// 05 175330 1539N 06631W 8429 01530 0044 +170 +170 177003 004 /// /// 05 175400 1540N 06629W 8428 01532 0043 +180 +180 234004 004 /// /// 05 175430 1539N 06628W 8430 01530 0046 +170 +170 212003 004 010 000 01 175500 1538N 06626W 8432 01529 0043 +180 +174 203004 004 010 000 00 175530 1538N 06625W 8430 01532 0043 +181 +176 195005 006 009 000 00 175600 1538N 06623W 8429 01532 0043 +184 +172 186007 008 010 000 00 175630 1537N 06621W 8428 01534 0044 +181 +171 189007 008 010 000 00 175700 1537N 06620W 8430 01530 0047 +170 +170 176006 007 021 000 01 175730 1536N 06618W 8429 01533 0047 +176 +175 173008 009 025 000 00 175800 1536N 06616W 8431 01530 0051 +170 +170 174009 009 026 000 01 175830 1536N 06615W 8430 01530 0051 +170 +170 175008 009 034 001 05 175900 1536N 06615W 8430 01530 0048 +175 +167 171009 010 037 001 00 175930 1535N 06611W 8429 01534 0048 +178 +159 167011 012 039 000 00 $$ i believe the gulf stream data plane just took off as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 yup and here's the next set URNT15 KNHC 231758 AF300 0709A ISAAC HDOB 22 20120823 175000 1544N 06623W 8429 01530 0045 +180 +180 118005 005 023 002 01 175030 1542N 06624W 8433 01528 0046 +180 +180 137003 004 020 002 01 175100 1541N 06625W 8428 01532 0044 +170 +170 175001 002 019 000 01 175130 1540N 06626W 8429 01530 0041 +180 +174 028001 002 015 000 00 175200 1539N 06627W 8429 01529 0041 +181 +175 015002 002 014 000 00 175230 1537N 06629W 8433 01528 0041 +180 +180 048002 003 013 001 03 175300 1537N 06630W 8429 01530 0043 +180 +180 092003 003 /// /// 05 175330 1539N 06631W 8429 01530 0044 +170 +170 177003 004 /// /// 05 175400 1540N 06629W 8428 01532 0043 +180 +180 234004 004 /// /// 05 175430 1539N 06628W 8430 01530 0046 +170 +170 212003 004 010 000 01 175500 1538N 06626W 8432 01529 0043 +180 +174 203004 004 010 000 00 175530 1538N 06625W 8430 01532 0043 +181 +176 195005 006 009 000 00 175600 1538N 06623W 8429 01532 0043 +184 +172 186007 008 010 000 00 175630 1537N 06621W 8428 01534 0044 +181 +171 189007 008 010 000 00 175700 1537N 06620W 8430 01530 0047 +170 +170 176006 007 021 000 01 175730 1536N 06618W 8429 01533 0047 +176 +175 173008 009 025 000 00 175800 1536N 06616W 8431 01530 0051 +170 +170 174009 009 026 000 01 175830 1536N 06615W 8430 01530 0051 +170 +170 175008 009 034 001 05 175900 1536N 06615W 8430 01530 0048 +175 +167 171009 010 037 001 00 175930 1535N 06611W 8429 01534 0048 +178 +159 167011 012 039 000 00 $$ Yep, haven't sent a VDM, but it looks like they fixed a L/V center with 1004 mb pressure around 15.6N, 66.5W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Recon fix around 15.6N 66.5W, 1004mb...still ill defined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 very near real-time Super Rapid Scan Visible Imagery (1 minute frequency images from GOES-14): Visible (1km resolution) Infrared ( 4km resolution) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Euro has been in a boat in the GOM for the last 3 days....casting a line over the FL pennisula and reeling in one model at a time....of course all that reeling has moved the boat a bit toward the fish!! The Euro has moved back east more than the GFS has moved west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Palmer Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Hello all, i'm sure most here have this info, but a while back I put together a short primer on how to auto-track recon flights in Google Earth. http://blog.morganpalmer.tv/track-live-hurricane-hunter-position-and-data-in-google-earth/ Cheers, Morgan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 "Gonzo" just took off from Florida. This mission will be sampling the ridge to the north of Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z ECMWF seems to be somewhat deeper and ever so slightly west of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Euro has been in a boat in the GOM for the last 3 days....casting a line over the FL pennisula and reeling in one model at a time....of course all that reeling has moved the boat a bit toward the fish!! Yup funny how when you write it off for its performance this season it all the sudden hits a homerun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z Euro is waaay faster after Hispaniola, and a tad left...central plains ridge is flatter, but bridge is stronger(building east, uh oh)...trough is flatter also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z ECMWF seems to be somewhat deeper and ever so slightly west of the 00z run. Looks fairly strong moving over western Cuba at D4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The Euro has moved back east more than the GFS has moved west. Yes, technically from the Wed 00z run, you are correct....I was more making light of the Euro pulling all other models from the Atlantic into the GOM....can't get much past you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 i'd say ridging is a bit more robust hr 96 to 120 lol wow @ 120 hr position on 12z euro (west shift) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Something to note, although the models seem to be comging to a consensus with regards to track, the spread with regards to intensity is still very large. Note that the SHIPS model is very aggressive and peaks out at catagory 3 intensity in only 84 hours. I don't have the track of the 12z SHIPS but I'm guessing the track avoids Hispanolia and spends minimal time over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 12z ECMWF is somewhat slower/stronger/further west than the 00z run. Central Gulf by 126 and moving WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Getting the impression from recon that this isn't organizing much at all despite better looks... going to have a hard time becoming a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola, which may be more favorable for Isaac to survive the island since storms with tight inner cores generally have the worst time. I don't think this will organize nearly as fast as the NHC is calling for after it's done with the mountains either, this reminds me of Ernesto 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Soemthing to note, although the models seem to be comging to a consensus with regards to track, the spread with regards to intensity is still very large. Note that the SHIPS model is very aggressive and peaks out at catagory 3 intensity in only 84 hours. I don't have the track of the 12z SHIPS but I'm guessing the track avoids Hispanolia and spends minimal time over Cuba. That doesn't take land into account. You need to look at the DSHIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 i'd say ridging is a bit more robust hr 96 to 120 lol wow @ 120 hr position on 12z euro (west shift) This could be the ridge over the southern plains having an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 i'd say ridging is a bit more robust hr 96 to 120 lol wow @ 120 hr position on 12z euro (west shift) It's also an atomic bomb at that point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 The 12z Euro has a lot less weakness due stronger ridges and the Central Plains ridge building east...if it becomes the main steering mechanism it would be going towards TX...probably even C/S TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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