yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Location of the center has dropped .3 degrees and moved west .5 degrees in 3 hrs... BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 200 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS REFORMING FARTHER SOUTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 63.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 This is a big deal. It means possibly missing Shredderola, and it puts more of the Gulf in play. All the models are going to have potentially very different 5-day positions with such a further-S initialization point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Center could be even further south. North winds near 14.45 [image deleted] Could it be that Isaac is still trying to consolidate the two centers that were discussed earlier in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 This is a big deal. It means possibly missing Shredderola, and it puts more of the Gulf in play. All the models are going to have potentially very different 5-day positions with such a further-S initialization point. That's also extremely important for intensity. It could be the difference between 30 mph and 130 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Having access to the geography department has it's perks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Sweet mother of center reformation... Defined "center" at 14.44N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Sweet mother of center reformation... Well defined center at 14.44N! Noice! Can't wait to see how the models react. This is huge. Agreed. Big implications here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Center around 14.7N 63.5W... putting the center on the very eastern edge of the cloud shield. In addition, the 850 hPa is nowhere near the minimum pressure, so its likely even the surface circulation and 850 hPa centers are not vertically aligned. This storm is still quite a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 We're a whole degree south of the 6z. I haven't seen this huge of a change in a while. Also a very tight center to boot. Whoa, slow down there... is it stacked? Likely not yet.. SFMR had winds of 20 kts when the FL winds were calm. It's likely still tilted further south at 700mb and we don't know if that easterly shear above 600mb has relaxed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Center around 14.7N 63.5W... putting the center on the very eastern edge of the cloud shield. In addition, the 850 hPa is nowhere near the minimum pressure, so its likely even the surface circulation and 850 hPa centers are not vertically aligned. This storm is still quite a mess. Agree. I dont think this storm gets its act together and begins to intensify until it gets vertically aligned. Hopefully that wont take a while, but it seems it may take a day or so to get its act together as well as flush out the dry air that you posted about above At 72 hrs, the 00z EURO is skirting the SE coast of Cuba at 1003 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I don't think anyone suggested the storm is well-organized or that it isn't a steaming pile. I just think the shift S of even one of the centers is significant with regard to future track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Center around 14.7N 63.5W... putting the center on the very eastern edge of the cloud shield. In addition, the 850 hPa is nowhere near the minimum pressure, so its likely even the surface circulation and 850 hPa centers are not vertically aligned. This storm is still quite a mess. This. I want to see the wind/pressure HDOBS when RECON gets to the NE quad of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Through 45 the ECM is a hair south and a touch stronger than 12z. A 996 contour popping at 45, whereas 12z at 57 was just sub-1000. Also farther south by about the length of the appendage to the southern coast of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Whoa, slow down there... is it stacked? Likely not yet.. SFMR had winds of 20 kts when the FL winds were calm. It's likely still tilted further south at 700mb and we don't know if that easterly shear above 600mb has relaxed yet. Wasn't really saying it's organized at all. This thing is a huge mess, but this is also the most defined wind shift we have had. The NE quad should be a mess, and I'd argue it's going to be hard to even find surface winds of 45 mph. GOES still analyzes mid to low-level winds in the 20 knot range ahead of Isaac and dry air is clearly being entrained from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Isaac crossing west central Cuba at 96 per 00z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Whoa, slow down there... is it stacked? Likely not yet.. SFMR had winds of 20 kts when the FL winds were calm. It's likely still tilted further south at 700mb and we don't know if that easterly shear above 600mb has relaxed yet. Interestingly enough, the 00z ECMWF is pretty much a bullseye for the 6z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 ECMWF seems a tad NE of the 12z by 120 hours. Also a bit deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Everybody calm down, this may NOT really be a true reformation farther south, the pressures are actually lower quite a bit to the north of this latest fix. I expect more of these blips coming up- I agree it may barely miss Hispaniola, but western Cuba is still potentially in its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I'd like to point out that the NHC advisory is saying the center may be reforming farther to the S, and the latest advisory position is much further S than the previous one-- it's not some fabrication in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Isaac at about 25 N 83 degrees W at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 ECMWF looks further east and faster this run. South of the western Panhandle by 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 So the GFS went W and the Euro went E. Looks like maybe a consensus is developing around the FL Panhandle...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 ECMWF seems a tad NE of the 12z by 120 hours. Also a bit deeper. The Euro also has it very weak until it gets close to the coast of Cuba. Certainly meshes with what we are seeing now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 So the GFS went W and the Euro went E. Looks like maybe a consensus is developing around the FL Panhandle...? It would seem like the consensus is focusing in on from Mobile to the Big Bend of FL as possible target at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 South of Port Saint Joe and intensifying quickly. Slows significantly while nearing the coast. This has been consistently shown for at least three runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 It would seem like the consensus is focusing in on TAL or Destin area at this moment Keeps going NW towards Mobile from 120h to 144h...that's all I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Euro landfall looks to be near Pensacola Wednesday, moving very slowly as the northern branch trough leaves it behind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Keeps going NW towards Mobile from 120h to 144h...that's all I've seen so far. Does seem like at the 144 position that Mobile AL to Pensacola FL would be in play for landfall as it moves NW... west coast of FL is also getting rainbands as Issac moves by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 5:55:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°43'N 63°30'W (14.7167N 63.5W) To compare with: 2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 23 Location: 15.5°N 63.5°W Moving: W at 20 mph Min pressure: 1003 mb Max sustained: 45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Euro landfall looks to be near Pensacola Wednesday, moving very slowly as the northern branch trough leaves it behind.... Georges redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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