HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The 5 am EDT forecast is interesting, actually-- shows a strengthening, 80-kt 'cane moving into S FL near Key Largo on d 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I tend to agree, although I won't be surprised to see actual development further W in the Caribbean. Are tropical storm conditions likely in the Antilles? Probably. The EC ensembles are rather insistent that the NW Caribbean will be the area to watch for more aggressive development early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Adt up to 55kts, 998.5 mb and 3.5T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Adt up to 55kts, 998.5 mb and 3.5T Airplane with people actually in the storm 10 minutes ago says 44 knots and 1005 mb. ADT is fairly useless for tropical storms, and Dvorak of any kind is extra-irrelvant when recon is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 ADT is fairly useless for developing tropical storms, and Dvorak of any kind is extra-irrelvant when recon is present. FYP a little bit. ADT is great when there is a cleared out eye. SATCON is a much better intensity absent recon. Of course, you are right about recon being the final arbiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 6z GFS just had a major shift... All of a sudden much faster In the short term And takes out Isaac into the E GOM. The ECMWF might not be crazy after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 If it takes it's current projected path over both Cuba and Hispaniola, I have a hard time believing it will maintain hurricane intensity. That is a lot of land interaction in a short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 6z GFS just had a major shift... All of a sudden much faster In the short term And takes out Isaac into the E GOM. The ECMWF might not be crazy after all. Wouldn't consider that a major shift it's been back and forth with east coast and west for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wouldn't consider that a major shift it's been back and forth with east coast and west for days now. Yeah... The only MAJOR difference I see is the 6Z is a bit slower and taking it through the Florida Straits (after making a nice jog west over northern Cuba) instead of up the spine of the state or Everglades to get to the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 The beginnings of the 6z GEFS show less continuity since the 0z run with the far right member going between DR and PR and the far left member between Haiti and Jamaica. Just when you think the solutions are converging, they split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As the Euro strings multiple, consistent runs together with rather large entities, it's difficult, IMO, to NOT continue to increase one's confidence in the general solution. That does NOT mean we won't see a bit of a minor shift back to the right. Large system + consistant runs of top performing model + waffling of other models = growing GOM threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 To bad the G-IV mission is tomorrow. Although apparently features approaching the Mountain Time Zone may affect rhe solution, and I doubt the G-IV is flying that big an area around the storm's environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Yeah... The only MAJOR difference I see is the 6Z is a bit slower and taking it through the Florida Straits (after making a nice jog west over northern Cuba) instead of up the spine of the state or Everglades to get to the west coast. Don't know that I would term it a major difference at that time frame either, but it definitely did noticeable shift to the left and is quicker. A number of its ensemble members on the 06Z run are now almost as far left as the op EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 As the Euro strings multiple, consistent runs together with rather large entities, it's difficult, IMO, to NOT continue to increase one's confidence in the general solution. That does NOT mean we won't see a bit of a minor shift back to the right. Large system + consistant runs of top performing model + waffling of other models = growing GOM threat. Can you explain your comment re: EC consistency vs. the 5am disco? THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE RIGHTMOST OF THE MODELS. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY DEEPER CYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I think Easterly shear is abating, I am starting to see some of that feathery cirrus outflow to the Northeast. Could be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Can you explain your comment re: EC consistency vs. the 5am disco? THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE RIGHTMOST OF THE MODELS. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY DEEPER CYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 348 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012 VALID 12Z SUN AUG 26 2012 - 12Z WED AUG 29 2012 THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPLIT THROUGH THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH ONE BRANCH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER SMALLER BRANCH ACCOMPANYING A CLOSED LOW THAT DRIFTS INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A CORRESPONDING UPPER HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE A BROAD WEAKNESS IN MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LINGERS OVER THE EAST COAST. DESPITE THE COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE PATTERN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE FLOW...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD THROUGH ABOUT DAY 4/SAT...WITH ALMOST ANY SOLUTION QUITE GOOD...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO WITH THE 00Z GFS SUSPICIOUSLY QUICK AND APPEARING TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. BEGINNING WITH DAY 5/SUN HOWEVER...THE SPREAD QUICKLY INCREASES PARTICULARLY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CROSSING CANADA...WITH THE GFS THE FIRST SOLUTION TO DEVIATE MOST FROM THE CONSENSUS AND THUS LESS PREFERRED COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL FORM THE BASIS OF THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONT. REGARDING TS ISAAC...THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS EXTREMELY LARGE...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN THE FIRST TO CURVE ISAAC TO THE NORTH...BRINGING ISAAC TOWARD MYRTLE BEACH BY NEXT MONDAY... WHILE THE GFS/UKMET AFFECT SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND ECMWF ACROSS WESTERN CUBA BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL USE THE LATEST POINTS RELAYED IN THE 08Z COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NHC FOR DAYS 3-5...BEFORE BLENDING DAYS 6/7 WITH YESTERDAY'S COORDINATED POINTS. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR TS ISAAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Can you explain your comment re: EC consistency vs. the 5am disco? THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE RIGHTMOST OF THE MODELS. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY DEEPER CYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. 5am discussion was produced before 06z GFS output, which certainly came left a good bit. As far as the UK...I need to see it remain consistent longer before I give it as much value as th Euro. As is usually the case, the strength of the ridge as modeled will be the lagest factor in determining the general track/speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 I think Easterly shear is abating, I am starting to see some of that feathery cirrus outflow to the Northeast. Could be a good sign. Per the end of the recon it's still an organizational disaster, amazingly....though the advisory stayed with 1004 mb the last vortex was 1007 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Per the end of the recon it's still an organizational disaster, amazingly....though the advisory stayed with 1004 mb the last vortex was 1007 mb. Quite similar to Ernesto in the eastern Carib. Will be interesting to see how quickly it comes together once past the leewards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 12z early models are clustered near western Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Latest Windsat still shows Isaac looking disorganized. The main area of cold cloud tops in the IR is that banded area of pink (deep convection) almost directly to the south of the center. A second banding area to the east of the center is trying to form but the latest IR indicates that this area of convection has died out. I think only slow intensification will occur today, it isn't going to do much until some rainbands form on the NW side. Usually there is southwesterly shear in this region, it is different to see a northerly/easterly shear signature on microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Although these products lag by a half day vs. other outputs the GFS/EnKF tracks have trended left: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Although these products lag by a half day vs. other outputs the GFS/EnKF tracks have trended left: Wow that's superb...what is the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Here's animated radar from the Lesser Antilles: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Wow that's superb...what is the link? Here's the root page, proceed from there: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/control/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Here's the root page, proceed from there: http://www.esrl.noaa...fsenkf/control/ Thanks! Is that only for the GFS or are other models available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Although these products lag by a half day vs. other outputs the GFS/EnKF tracks have trended left: what is odd is that all those runs take Isaac to roughly the same exit point on Cuba at day 5. After that is where it diverges. I was under the impression that the ridge would break down after that, and not strengthen and move Isaac to the left. Am I misinformed there? Also, it really is a different solution than the Euro, and not really a movement toward the Euro since the Euro has the storm moving through the Yucatan channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Was there any discussion/consideration surrounding a center jump during the overnight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Here's the root page, proceed from there: http://www.esrl.noaa...fsenkf/control/ Just some other background on this....this is a higher resolution deterministic run (T878, ~20 km or so?....I need to check the numbers) than our operational GFS (T574, ~27km), but utilizing similar phyics (for better or worse, untuned) and a comparable DA scheme (they are using an all out EnKF, whereas our operational DA is a hybrid EnKF/Var system). The ensemble is run at T382L64 (centered about the T878 EnKF analysis) versus the operational GEFS which is T254L42 (which uses a much more simplistic ensemble perturbation initialization technique). It's all experimental, but is sort of a proving ground for stuff we are thinking about for future operations (though we are actually working on even higher spatial resolution for the GFS with different dynamics [semi-Lagrangian instead of Eulerian] and tuned phyics ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Thanks! Is that only for the GFS or are other models available? That's not even the operational GFS ensemble. It's the experimental GFS ensemble with a pure ensemble Kalman filter initialization edit: what dtk said ^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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