Bryan Wood Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 956 and bombing... Look out. Idk if I buy a track like this yet as the system is moving more WNW right now. 0z will be telling with actual fixed plot. Don't know if I buy the strength(if it indeed goes that way). Certainly possible with the crazy warm SST's, but shear from the trough would likely be an issue, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 There is a giant trough over the plains... eh? there's stronger than normal ridging extending from northeast of Isaac to northwest of Isaac at 240 hours. There's a trough way up in northern plains extending from Montana to Minnesota but that wouldn't affect the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Don't know if I buy the strength(if it indeed goes that way). Certainly possible with the crazy warm SST's, but shear from the trough would likely be an issue, too. Doesn't look like it would be heavily sheared in this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ?? I was looking at hour 216... which... it sort of disappears/washes out at hour 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Don't know if I buy the strength(if it indeed goes that way). Certainly possible with the crazy warm SST's, but shear from the trough would likely be an issue, too. I would be hesitant too if this were 3-5 years ago when the operational models were bombing every swirl out there....but the tweaking of the models recently has reduce the model porn substantially..... ....so the million dollar question is: Does that add weight/value to such a solution at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:08Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W) B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Wow, we're really splitting hairs over +200 hours out. There's still a lot of uncertaintly over how strong this can get just in the next 3 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 EURO at 180 SFC/QP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Wow, we're really splitting hairs over +200 hours out. There's still a lot of uncertaintly over how strong this can get just in the next 3 days... Who is "we"......and what hairs are being split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I will lead you to the promise land my friend! The Euro solution would make you look pretty good right now. I remember you from past years. No, 09L is not going to Charleston. I would be hesitant too if this were 3-5 years ago when the operational models were bombing every swirl out there....but the tweaking of the models recently has reduce the model porn substantially..... ....so the million dollar question is: Does that add weight/value to such a solution at this point? Yeah, exactly. Also, while the exact intensity indicated should be taken with a grain of salt-- of course-- it's just significant in my mind because I believe it's the first time this season we've seen the Euro show a really strong, deep cyclone in the basin. That's gotta count for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:17Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W) B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SPIRAL BAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The Euro solution would make you look pretty good right now. Yeah, exactly. Also, while the exact intensity indicated should be taken with a grain of salt-- of course-- it's just significant in my mind because I believe it's the first time this season we've seen the Euro show a really strong, deep cyclone in the basin. That's gotta count for something. It's not just the Euro though....all the other ops have "flicked" the switch on this one, irregardless of the postion (EC, FL straits, GOM) It's the only reason I made a map!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Indeed... and even better news for you, the latest models may indicate limited effects from Hispañola. Still, of course, that island is the biggest question. This. Its really hard to get a good gauge on what happens post-Hispaniola, although the trend has certainly been for a further west solution. Don't know if I buy the strength(if it indeed goes that way). Certainly possible with the crazy warm SST's, but shear from the trough would likely be an issue, too. What trough? I don't see anything in the ECMWF that is digging substantially in the United States beyond day 7. The long range ECMWF has a very favorable pattern over TD#9 in the day 8-10 time frame, although this is well out in la-la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think the biggest forecasting challenge while looking at models with this system is trying to gauge the Euro's performance so far this year with respect to overdoing ridges and applying it to the solutions it is providing for Isaac... and making sure the GFS isn't underdoing the ridge with respect to its past performances. Btw: AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This. Its really hard to get a good gauge on what happens post-Hispaniola, although the trend has certainly been for a further west solution. What trough? I don't see anything in the ECMWF that is digging substantially in the United States beyond day 7. The long range ECMWF has a very favorable pattern over TD#9 in the day 8-10 time frame, although this is well out in la-la land. Absolutely. However, like the old EF Hutton commercials...when the Euro starts throwing bombs out there...."people listen!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This. Its really hard to get a good gauge on what happens post-Hispaniola, although the trend has certainly been for a further west solution. What trough? I don't see anything in the ECMWF that is digging substantially in the United States beyond day 7. The long range ECMWF has a very favorable pattern over TD#9 in the day 8-10 time frame, although this is well out in la-la land. Yeah, it's retreating at that point. It's an interesting run, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 12Z GFS ensembles shifted west from the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Per the latest loop here..it seems that We have Issac...Latest Recon indicates a 40kt wind and 44kts in the NE Quadrant and pressure down to 1005mb TS Issac at 5pm? Also per loop,seems that the tstorms are begining to wrap all the way around with less shear then earlier today. Just my two cents. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Not to kill the Euro Caribbean Cruiser fest, but the GFDL also shows a weak system and takes it north of Cuba. Historically, doesn't the GFS usually underestimate the ridge, while the EURO overestimates it? Though the distance between the two models really isn't all that large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Considering we're seeing flareups of convection in the middle of the day, tonight during the diurnal max could be very interesting. Development has been remarkably quick since last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 FWIW: AL, 09, 2012082118, , BEST, 0, 153N, 532W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ISAAC, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Considering we're seeing flareups of convection in the middle of the day, tonight during the diurnal max could be very interesting. Development has been remarkably quick since last evening. Agree. The center is now back under decent convection. Dmax should really boost Isaac up. I am thinking 60 mph if not 65 by 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 What are the chances this gets shredded by Hispaniola? I know a few of the models show that scenario. It is already a bit North if were you want it for it to miss significant land interaction once it gets beyond PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 What are the chances this gets shredded by Hispaniola? I know a few of the models show that scenario. It is already a bit North if were you want it for it to miss significant land interaction once it gets beyond PR. I would put it at a greater than 50% chance, it's only chance is to go south but the stronger it gets the further north it will go, and the center of the track is along southern Hispaniola. This one reminds me a little of Debby, which was hyped to hit Florida and then get shredded, whatever year that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Majority of the Euro ensemble members are east of the op, into the E Gulf and threatening FL, though a few rogue members head toward IAH-MSY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Current satellite loop indicates convection building on the north side of the system in the area of concern with previously dry air. Seems to be organizing as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Majority of the Euro ensemble members are east of the op, into the E Gulf and threatening FL, though a few rouge members head toward IAH-MSY How does this compare to yesterday's 12Z run of the Euro in terms of operational vs. ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Next recon pass should be interesting. Probably a nice pressure drop with the convection eruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 How does this compare to yesterday's 12Z run of the Euro in terms of operational vs. ensembles? Ensemble median track hasn't really changed since Sunday. Obviously, the Euro op is well west of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nice convection burst over the center. I wonder if thats enough for the NHC to up it to 40 knots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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