HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 It's apples and oranges you are comparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Have you booked cruises in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Oh boy. I can tell this thread is going to need heavy moderation over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Oh boy. I can tell this thread is going to need heavy moderation over the next week. Have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Oh boy. I can tell this thread is going to need heavy moderation over the next week. As long as you continue to email me forecasts, I won't cause trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 0z Euro (appears to, from my very rough first view) bends what becomes a hurricane, back wnw just NE of PR. I'd pay to see that. That gives me a sense of hope. Apparently there are 15 day Euro ensembles only the select few can view. But the bend back gives me hope at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Oh boy. I can tell this thread is going to need heavy moderation over the next week. wait until the first gfs run that has this going to 70 W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 wait until the first gfs run that has this going to 70 W. I'm glad most people don't have access to the Euro ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Looks like the ECM is a fair bit faster than the GFS. Given the problems previous systems have had with the low level flow being too quick, that looks a very possible issue for the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I'm glad most people don't have access to the Euro ensemble There isn't a persistent weakness at 50ºW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 There isn't a persistent weakness at 50ºW? It's nothing spectacular, but the mean is showing recurvature around 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 It's nothing spectacular, but the mean is showing recurvature around 70W. So almost have half the individual members would produce the best SNE thread, ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Oh boy. I can tell this thread is going to need heavy moderation over the next week. So where will the Cat 5 hit: Miami, Tampa, Nahlins, Houston or Charleston? In all seriousness, there doesn't look to be much that will hold this back in the long-term. Going to be an interesting week for us tropics . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 So where will the Cat 5 hit: Miami, Tampa, Nahlins, Houston or Charleston? Long Island/Cape Cod, obviously. 1938 ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Long Island/Cape Cod, obviously. 1938 ftw Kossin 'Cluster 4' purists may not enjoy a CV storm hitting North of 35ºN, but call me a weenie, despite the fact the best vids would come from a Florida daytime landfall, a Cluster 3 late recurving CV storm into either the NYC or SNE subforums for the holiday weekend, and the 2012 season would be a success in my book. Don't spend much time in the Philly forum since the divorce, but I could learn to lurk and love it. Guess I'll have to wait one more cycle before HWRF and GFDL p0rn, but statistical guidance is juicy. 110 knots, not too shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Long Island/Cape Cod, obviously. 1938 ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Too bad I'm going to Cape Cod this week for vacation and not in two weeks Then again, last year I was vacationing down in Cape Hatteras and Irene cut my stay short- then again in Long Island once north, and finally she caught me up in Albany. There is a famous met grad student in Oklahoma who saw someone else do it, and was inspired to weld armor onto an old Suburban. And I used to make the drive when stationed in Ballston Spa (not far from Saratoga Springs) to the Southern suburbs of BOS to visit my grandmother, and it is a quick and scenic drive on the Mass Pike. Forget the armor. Just go do some honest, in the field, research. Just make sure you plaster the vehicle with Albany decals, and attach an anemometer, so they let you through the road blocks. 6Z GFS ensembles has a member with a sub 984 storm due South of Cape Cod on the 29th, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 12z GFS has some very heavy interaction with the ITCZ that induces everyone's favorite WSW movement. HEAVY dose of convective feedback thereafter as a growth grows directly behind 94L and "develops" Regardless of the final product, large step towards the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 12z GFS has some very heavy interaction with the ITCZ that induces everyone's favorite WSW movement. HEAVY dose of convective feedback thereafter as a growth grows directly behind 94L and "develops" Regardless of the final product, large step towards the ECMWF. Yeah, looking at the Africa loops it looks like there is absolutely nothing between 94L and a wave that is all the way back over eastern Nigeria - I have no idea what the GFS is developing - it's almost like an old-school AVN/MRF boguscane. Wonder how many of the ensemble members will show that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Yeah, looking at the Africa loops it looks like there is absolutely nothing between 94L and a wave that is all the way back over eastern Nigeria - I have no idea what the GFS is developing - it's almost like an old-school AVN/MRF boguscane. Wonder how many of the ensemble members will show that low. Who knows if the second cyclone is real or not, if it isn't real, and the GFS tries some kind of Fujiwara-ish interaction with that holding 94L to far South, the solution would be questionable. That said, GFS is weakening the second cyclone, and 94L is starting to gain latitude quickly at the truncation. Not sure why it starts gaining latitude when it does, from the 500 mb heights, but there is more to motion than 500 mb heights, obviously. Where it is at the truncation, I can see it gaining latitude, it is well West of the ridge center. Just why it starts about 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Not finished yet, but 12Z GFS ensembles have several members that would at least suggest a Cape Cod house party wave watching thread in the SNE subforum. 6Z had some near misses, 12Z ensemble has more near misses and one sub 984 mb storm making landfall in SNE. The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Not finished yet, but 12Z GFS ensembles have several members that would at least suggest a Cape Cod house party wave watching thread in the SNE subforum. 6Z had some near misses, 12Z ensemble has more near misses and one sub 984 mb storm making landfall in SNE. The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I just posted the 0Z 300 hour GFS ensemble mean 500 mb heights versus the 12Z 288 hour GFS ensemble 500 mb heights in the tropics thread in the NYC subforum (born in Flushing, parents moved from Jackson Heights to Massapequa, attended St. Martin of Tours parochial school in Amityville before we moved to Texas over 30 years ago), and the ensemble trend is their friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 12z ECMWF is even weaker with 94L. Stays further south and west than the previous so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 12z ECMWF is even weaker with 94L. Stays further south and west than the previous so far. Not quite to 70ºW at 240, but it is pretty obvious the Euro would have it there at 266 hours, if only it went that far. And again, a suggestion of a bend back towards WNW at the end. And maybe the mid level ridge building West and maybe getting set to tighten up, even tilt, the OH Valley trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Not quite to 70ºW at 240, but it is pretty obvious the Euro would have it there at 266 hours, if only it went that far. And again, a suggestion of a bend back towards WNW at the end. And maybe the mid level ridge building West and maybe getting set to tighten up, even tilt, the OH Valley trough? It's quite the tease at the end with the building ridge. Hard to tell if the storm can escape. We've come a long way in 24 hours, though, from the sure recurve at 50 W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 This is a fun tool when used properly... based completely on climotology, the highest probability of a US impact at this time is 7% for North Carolina. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcprob/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 This is a fun tool when used properly... based completely on climotology, the highest probability of a US impact at this time is 7% for North Carolina. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcprob/ Nice find Phil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Very interesting trend continues. This looks like a threat to the islands. We're going into the Caribbean on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I would be surprised if 94L recurved before 70W and also wouldn't be shocked if it doesn't recurve at all, on the 18z GFS. The center of the ridge is much farther west in comparison to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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