dan88 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 recon: 1005.4mb extrap, SFMR of 37kt, flight level (975mb) winds of 43kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Oooh, so it might be a Cruiser after all. I will lead you to the promise land my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This system is huge on visible. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis0-lalo.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This system is huge on visible. http://www.ssd.noaa....y/vis0-lalo.jpg Yes, but it also appears to have a robust, tight central circulation given those recon obs and satellite. I know the convection near the center looks rather putrid, but it is dmin and there is sitll evidently a bit of shear. My suspicion is if/when this gets into a better environment (probably as it approaches the Islands) it could gets its act together pretty rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 993.2 at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 BIG STRENGTHENING AT 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Yes, but it also appears to have a robust, tight central circulation given those recon obs and satellite. I know the convection near the center looks rather putrid, but it is dmin and there is sitll evidently a bit of shear. My suspicion is if/when this gets into a better environment (probably as it approaches the Islands) it could gets its act together pretty rapidly. That's what I was going for. It is large and looks dangerous. dmax could be interesting tonight to see if it really goes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 993.2 at 192 I'll take a stab here and say that the NHC will shift it's 5 day track just a bit back to the west at the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Is this a "wobble" or is soon to be Issac gaining latitude fast? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 956mb headed for NO. Recon 44FL/40SFMR in the NE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Yeah....no narrative needed....nicely posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Is this a "wobble" or is soon to be Issac gaining latitude fast? http://www.ssd.noaa....h-vis-long.html When a tropical cyclone is organizing like it is now, it is subject to "movement" and relocation due to convective development. That probably caused a bit of a shift WSW overnight and now a correction has taken place back a bit to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 956mb headed for NO. Recon 44FL/40SFMR in the NE quad Almost a 0° heading from 216 to 240, so probably more Mobile straight-line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Is this a "wobble" or is soon to be Issac gaining latitude fast? http://www.ssd.noaa....h-vis-long.html While the storm is gaining latitude, I think it appears to be more than in reality thanks to the new blow up of convection that is going up on its southern flank that has been moving northward in an attempt to wrap into the center. I wouldn't expect a huge latitude gain over the next 24 hours given that the convection is focused on the south and west flank of the circulation, which will make the center more prone to center relocations or wobbles in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 956 and bombing... Look out. Idk if I buy a track like this yet as the system is moving more WNW right now. 0z will be telling with actual fixed plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Almost a 0° heading from 216 to 240, so probably more Mobile straight-line. There´s a building strong ridge north (590+dm), it should probably turn a bit W later, it could even miss it to the W verbatim, but obviously that´s a bit over the top for a 10 day forecast extrapolation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro is only plausible if the low doesn't develop for 6 days and stays weak enough to ride the ridge that far west at that speed. I'm not buying it but, hey, it is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 That 12z euro run was full of winning. The players on the field are the same as the Euro has the trough swinging down similar to GFS in the long range but Euro has stronger ridging in the first 5 days and it allows it to get further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The Euro definitely continues the trend of having a stronger ridge which this summer has been overdone compared to the GFS... That said, my only real beef with the EURO is that I think its too slow with the movement through the Caribbean...I think Isaac gets to the Gulf faster than Day 7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Well the 12Z Euro has thrown out an interesting solution. It's good to see that we've somewhat entered the "windshield wiper" period between the GFS and Euro. At least that means we can start narrowing down a decent solution for the future of this system. One thing to keep in mind is that the NOAA gulfstream mission should give us a better idea of the strength of that ridge at 23/1730Z, and that could change the outcome of the models. I wish they were flying sooner, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think the Euro is somewhat plausible, because I just don't see this thing taking off right now....There is a TON of dry air around. Also, GFS and euro are not that far off in the long range. not bad for an 8-10 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 There´s a building strong ridge north (590+dm), it should probably turn a bit W later, it could even miss it to the W verbatim, but obviously that´s a bit over the top for a 10 day forecast extrapolation... There is a giant trough over the plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro is only plausible if the low doesn't develop for 6 days and stays weak enough to ride the ridge that far west at that speed. I'm not buying it but, hey, it is the Euro. I think its a far more likely solution than the GGEM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 My broad takeaway from the last 24 hr is that the fish option seems to be off the table, and the main concern is interaction with the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 956 and bombing... Look out. Idk if I buy a track like this yet as the system is moving more WNW right now. 0z will be telling with actual fixed plot. ECWMF is now a pretty extreme outlier - even the couple of GFS ensemble members that end up that far west don't get there by heading west to the Yucatan and then north, they go directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro is only plausible if the low doesn't develop for 6 days and stays weak enough to ride the ridge that far west at that speed. I'm not buying it but, hey, it is the Euro. I remember you from past years. No, 09L is not going to Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro is only plausible if the low doesn't develop for 6 days and stays weak enough to ride the ridge that far west at that speed. I'm not buying it but, hey, it is the Euro. The euro may be preventing intensification in the Caribbean until Sunday because of interaction with the high terrain of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 There is a giant trough over the plains... ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 My broad takeaway from the last 24 hr is that the fish option seems to be off the table, and the main concern is interaction with the Greater Antilles. Indeed... and even better news for you, the latest models may indicate limited effects from Hispañola. Still, of course, that island is the biggest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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