Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think that Issac may ultimately be more remembered for inland flooding (or at least equally so if it becomes a major). Looking at the trends of the Euro and GFS, it seems like it could get trapped somewhere over land for a couple of days and really dump a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Don't hold your breath on the Maple Leaf...still has it goin' fishing. In the unlikely event anyone cares, NOGAPS is significantly stronger and further north at 12Z compared to 6Z. I'd bet money the EC is further north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 they're starting to run the 12z run now in Montreal. so we'll see. the bigger question will be the trend than the exact spot (even though if I were TWC I wouldn't run an episode of "It Could Happen Tomorrow" for the Tampa area any time soon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 they're starting to run the 12z run now in Montreal. so we'll see. the bigger question will be the trend than the exact spot (even though if I were TWC I wouldn't run an episode of "It Could Happen Tomorrow" for the Tampa area any time soon). The new CMC is up on the FSU site; it's essentially the same, with weenie-rific rapid deepening and due N movement south of North Carolina. Yet another model with 96L getting close enough for interaction, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think that Issac may ultimately be more remembered for inland flooding (or at least equally so if it becomes a major). Looking at the trends of the Euro and GFS, it seems like it could get trapped somewhere over land for a couple of days and really dump a ton of rain. Yep...made a note of that over on the Southeast Sub-forums. Isaac+ front/trough = Big time rains and any more shifts west will increase the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ok. that's good to know. now for all involved, it's a matter of "where is the weakness in the ridge?" for the next 5 days, as more than a few have said in here, that's what we're all looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ok. that's good to know. now for all involved, it's a matter of "where is the weakness in the ridge?" for the next 5 days, as more than a few have said in here, that's what we're all looking for. G-IV mission Thursday should (I hope) improve model accuracy while TD 9 is still Southeast of Hispaniola. Any word if balloon sonde sites will be doing 6Z/18Z releases? Don't see it mentioned on San Juan AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The over or N of Guadeloupe seems unrealistic (this is shown by the models, even the current 12z GFS)...that would mean gaining over 1 degree in latitude...it should be moving 280-285 by now, which it isn´t. This may seem as nitpicking, but this could mean a farther south track off Hispaniola (or La Española *winks* PSUBlizzicane). There´s even some NEerly shear, which might hint at a stronger than progged mid/upper level ridge. Exactly. According to the 12Z GFS, TD9 gains about 1 degree latitude - most of which occurs during the initial 12 h of simulation! Thereafter, the track pretty close to 270. We should already have surpassed 15.5 N by now, yet 16:45Z vis still shows little to no (maybe +1-2/10 of a degree since 12Z, depending on where you spot the center under the earlier anvil?) northward component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 12z CMC...where's the 540dm line when you need it?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 From Scott in the "Chase" thread. Wednesday, Aug 22, 2012 NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 2000 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados. Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight. Thursday, Aug 23, 2012 NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 0800 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados. Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 12z CMC...where's the 540dm line when you need it?! Unrealistic but pretty cool to see, this is the 2nd run in a row now. I think the GFS and Euro have the right idea because if this was going to be any threat to the east coast, it would need to gain more latitude which it is not. The stronger ridging to the north of future Issac would argue against this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Unrealistic but pretty cool to see, this is the 2nd run in a row now. I think the GFS and Euro have the right idea because if this was going to be any threat to the east coast, it would need to gain more latitude which it is not. The stronger ridging to the north of future Issac would argue against this solution. BIG change in the 12Z GFS Ensembles as many members now enter the GOM and extend as far west as Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 GFS model guidance from James Spann: https://twitter.com/spann/status/237966846333181952/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 While we are all fixated on the models. Real time shows a beautiful exposed circulation with that decoupling look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 BIG change in the 12Z GFS Ensembles as many members now enter the GOM and extend as far west as Louisiana. For the first time since I started paying attention to 94L/TD 9, the op GFS hasn't been South and West of all/most of its ensembles. Just looping out 996mb and stronger members on the NCEP ensemble page, 1) there are a lot of members 996 or stronger and 2) there seems a good distribution East and West of the op GFS. If anything, op may be a touch East of most of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 GFS model guidance from James Spann: https://twitter.com/...3181952/photo/1 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Euro initializing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 GFS model guidance from James Spann: https://twitter.com/...3181952/photo/1 that is the 6z guidance, as mentioned above, 12z ensembles shifted well west. generally right on with the consensus that Louisiana to SE coast is in play, with a florida landfall most likely....as am19psu nicely put it, do we have Fay or Charley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ECMWF 24: ECMWF 48: ECMWF 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Forgeting the models for a second, the depression looks pretty bad with an exposed LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ECMWF... not much left of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 ECMWF... not much left of it That site has pretty bad plot resolution. Try Raleigh's in house plots: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Latest image continues showing that decoupling look or (naked swirl if you will) with hints of it gaining lat. Should get a fix from recon soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Latest image continues showing that decoupling look or (naked swirl if you will) with hints of it gaining lat. Should get a fix from recon soon. Was anyone expecting anything different? None of the guidance suggested any significant increase in organization or intensity until it was close to the Leeward Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 That site has pretty bad plot resolution. Try Raleigh's in house plots: http://raleighwx.ame...rtSLP_loop.html It's still 1007mb... that's what I was pointing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It's just east of Cozumel/Cancun area at hr 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Getting its act back together: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It's just east of Cozumel/Cancun area at hr 168. Oooh, so it might be a Cruiser after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Well left...YP this run, with a decent ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Recon is 43FL/37 SFMR from the SE quad. Several TS observations. This is soon to be Isaac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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