MarkSC Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I still think the Euro is hampered by having the storm too weak. If the flow is currently slightly WSW for a deeper storm, will that still be the cast past 60 W? Or would a deeper storm move more NW than a shallow one as the ridge weakens in the central Caribbean? Looking at the Euro compared to the CMC, BAM deep, HWRF, etc.the strength of the storm is what stands out to me on all of the models that show a Bahamas threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Juicy forecast from LEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The sooner we can get this developed into a stronger TS..the farther north we should see it go..If we see it really crank up today, we may be able to rule out some of these tracks that take it into the Caribbean. Kevin, you're completely wish-casting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 There is a banter thread for banter posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At 06Z there now isn't a single GFS ensemble member that actually enters the GOM at any point, which is pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I still think the Euro is hampered by having the storm too weak. If the flow is currently slightly WSW for a deeper storm, will that still be the cast past 60 W? Or would a deeper storm move more NW than a shallow one as the ridge weakens in the central Caribbean? Looking at the Euro compared to the CMC, BAM deep, HWRF, etc.the strength of the storm is what stands out to me on all of the models that show a Bahamas threat. In the short term a more vertically deep storm results in a further south track due To the orientation of the mid-level ridge. As the ridge slowly erodes, that path of motion will switch from WSW to W to WNW. The question in the long term is how much this ridge breaks down and does it allow TD9 to move over Hispaniola and Cuba. Questions I'm not 100% sure of at this time, although I'm leaning towards the ECMWF. It should be noted the GFS and GGEM are both weaker than the ECMWF when they make their initial NW turn, so in the medium to long range, so strength of the storm doesn't seem to play a major role in whether or not TD9 is influenced by the weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At 06Z there now isn't a single GFS ensemble member that actually enters the GOM at any point, which is pretty interesting. HPC: PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED THE 00Z/21 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN SHARED MORE IN COMMON WITH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAN THE GEFS MEAN...THE SAID DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING ENOUGH SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT TRUST THEIR DETAILS. EXTRAPOLATED THE 09Z/21 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR THE DEPICTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DAYS 6 AND 7. WILL REFINE THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDAY COORDINATION CALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 In the short term a more vertically deep storm results in a further south track due To the orientation of the mid-level ridge. As the ridge slowly erodes that path of motion will switch from WSW to W to WNW. The question in the long term is how much this ridge breaks down and does it allow TD9 to move over Hispaniola and Cuba. Questions I'm not 100% side at this time, although I'm leanin towards the ECMWF. It should be noted the GFS and GGEM are both weaker than the ECMWF when they make their initial NW turn, so in the medium to long range, so strength of the storm doesn't seem to play a major role in whether or not TD9 is influenced by the weakness. Any thoughts on why the BAM deep is a right outlier compared to shallow or medium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nothing like a questionable center location in the morning to get the mind thinking. Recon should be in by early afternoon to give us a fix on whats actually happening under that convection. 2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES) FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- A. 21/1800Z B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST C. 21/1530Z D. 16.2N 54.5W E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Any thoughts on why the BAM deep is a right outlier compared to shallow or medium? IIRC it takes it's forecast variables from the GFS which has a weaker mid level ridge in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 So any red tags want to take a stab at the odd motion the low level clouds appear to be taking near the convection? http://rammb.cira.co...ive_vis_floater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 So any red tags want to take a stab at the odd motion the low level clouds are taking near the convection? http://rammb.cira.co...ive_vis_floater my guess would be a hallucination of sorts as the floater parameters change each frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This is significantly better organized than Ernesto and Helene were at this stage IMO. The better organization, the favorable environmental conditions currently and into the eastern Caribbean, and the stronger global model intensities suggest a much different outcome than those two, at least in the central/eastern Caribbean. I'm not buying the "it's moving too fast" and the "vortex is tilted/centers are misaligned" scenario as much this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 So any red tags want to take a stab at the odd motion the low level clouds appear to be taking near the convection? http://rammb.cira.co...ive_vis_floater Tilted system at this time, IMO...not too uncommon for this phase of TC genesis..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Only focusing on structure... 09L does appear to have a very well defined low level circulation (for the time being) with some very moist air in the southern inflow. Also note how large the circulation is as a whole. In the Atlantic, size does matter. Especially when one is forecast to take on Hispaniola at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This is significantly better organized than Ernesto and Helene were at this stage IMO. The better organization, the favorable environmental conditions currently and into the eastern Caribbean, and the stronger global model intensities suggest a much different outcome than those two, at least in the central/eastern Caribbean. I'm not buying the "it's moving too fast" and the "vortex is tilted/centers are misaligned" scenario as much this time. I agree. In addition, the shear vector is in a direction that won't be injecting the system with continued bouts of dry air, since the TPW to the east of TD#9 is actually quite high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The over or N of Guadeloupe seems unrealistic (this is shown by the models, even the current 12z GFS)...that would mean gaining over 1 degree in latitude...it should be moving 280-285 by now, which it isn´t. This may seem as nitpicking, but this could mean a farther south track off Hispaniola (or La Española *winks* PSUBlizzicane). There´s even some NEerly shear, which might hint at a stronger than progged mid/upper level ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Looks like the center is being exposed on the ne side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ridging is certainly stronger on the 12z gfs/extending further west...system will likely track west of the 00z gfs, similar to the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Busy day for the aircraft tomorrow And they canx the Gulf flight, so no getting confused w/ recons. First plane enroute today. G-IV mission Thursday should come in handy as far as trough strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ridging is certainly stronger on the 12z gfs/extending further west...system will likely track west of the 00z gfs, similar to the 6z run Even SW of 06z at hr 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Troughing leaves and some ridging takes it place...it should be closer to the Nern GoM this run...or not ...Tampa it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Large system along the West coast of Florida by 162 hours, only after having it cross the Greater Antilles. GFS has stronger/more ridging over the WATL this run... Seems like a step towards the ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Troughing leaves and some ridging takes it place...it should be closer to the Nern GoM this run. that is the trend I am seeing, watching this since the 00z run this morning. i want to see what the euro says as well as the canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Very promising to see the GFS trend towards the euro this run, if he can miss Hispaniola to the south and feed off those warm caribbean waters we may be looking at our first major of the year heading into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Even SW of 06z at hr 156. 96L is a more defined system on this run and they get quite close (with 96L off the East coast of Florida). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Typical diurnal minimum for a weak system. With a structure like this, it should have no problem building convection later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 not sure anyone at the TBW office wants to see the operational GFS t+174 panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 that is the trend I am seeing, watching this since the 00z run this morning. i want to see what the euro says as well as the canadian. Don't hold your breath on the Maple Leaf...still has it goin' fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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