Jim Marusak Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 and we have TD#9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Pretty aggressive forecast, but certainly leaning towards the ECMWF track which I think in the end will prevail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 i'm thinking it'll delay the start, not dissipate this system but i do like the convective trend. just would like it to fill in a bit more. and as well, that dry patch to the northeast of the convection does make me wonder how fast it'll develop before this system makes it to the leewards. the environment looks better west of the leewards than east. This, and then some. The central convective burst is seriously expanding with each new frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 i'm thinking it'll delay the start, not dissipate this system. but i do like the convective trend. just would like it to fill in a bit more. and as well, that dry patch to the northeast of the convection does make me wonder how fast it'll develop before this system makes it to the leewards. the environment looks better west of the leewards than east. Yup, I think we'll see diurnal cycling until it can sufficiently moisten it's environment in a couple days, fairly standard for tropical cyclones attached to a SAL outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 500 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012 ...NINTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.2W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST. MARTIN. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...AND BARBUDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES... CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA *GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND ST. MARTIN * ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...AND BARBUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND EMERGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 510 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ANGUILLA... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. $$ FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I'm more conservative than Stewart's forecast of a near-major hurricane by day 4. Given the residual dry air, very large circulation size, fast forward motion and strong low-level easterlies all the way to the e. Caribbean, along with the reluctance of the global and mesoscale models, I don't see much likelihood of this becoming a hurricane until it gets west of about 70W. I'd favor gradual strengthening the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I'm more conservative than Stewart with a near-major hurricane by day 4. Given the dry air, very large circulation size, and the reluctance of the global and mesoscale models, I don't see much likelihood of this becoming a hurricane until it gets west of about 70W. I'd favor gradual strengthening the next few days. Makes sense. What do you think of the track, Justin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I would edge a little south of NHC's track (about 50 miles s. of Haiti and ending up somewhere between Jamaica and the s. coast of eastern Cuba by day 5) especially given the rapid organization and vertical coupling occurring in the past 6 hours, which means TD9 will be influenced less by low-level flow and more by the WSW-ENE oriented mid-level ridge. Makes sense. What do you think of the track, Justin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok, start throwing the hot dogs at me, but this looks like a rapid development of a legit CDO, that looks like it's already starting to rotate. Not 100% on this, especially given the history of entanglement with SAL, however TPW imagery did indicate that 09L was starting to insulate or surround its center with high PWAT air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok, start throwing the hot dogs at me, but this looks like a rapid development of a legit CDO, that looks like it's already starting to rotate. Not 100% on this, especially given the history of entanglement with SAL, however TPW imagery did indicate that 09L was starting to insulate or surround its center with high PWAT air. OK, let me be the first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I would edge a little south of NHC's track (about 50 miles s. of Haiti and ending up somewhere between Jamaica and the s. coast of eastern Cuba by day 5) especially given the rapid organization and vertical coupling occurring in the past 6 hours, which means TD9 will be influenced less by low-level flow and more by the WSW-ENE oriented mid-level ridge. OK, cool-- thanks, Justin. OK, let me be the first... I liked your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok, start throwing the hot dogs at me, but this looks like a rapid development of a legit CDO, that looks like it's already starting to rotate. Not 100% on this, especially given the history of entanglement with SAL, however TPW imagery did indicate that 09L was starting to insulate or surround its center with high PWAT air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok, start throwing the hot dogs at me, but this looks like a rapid development of a legit CDO, that looks like it's already starting to rotate. Not 100% on this, especially given the history of entanglement with SAL, however TPW imagery did indicate that 09L was starting to insulate or surround its center with high PWAT air. It can be called a CDO since that's what it is, it's central, it's dense, and it's overcast As far as the jargony use of CDO which implies that it won't collapse for awhile since it's well developed, I gotta disagree, we're still in peak diurnal convective max territory and I expect this convection to wane, one of the first bursts in days afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Gustav! I see your Gustav and raise you a Charley! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I see your Gustav and raise you a Charley! :weenie: No, you guys. Dennis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Yeah Dennis could work too. Although that storm started quite far south and moved almost due northwest towards Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 We can partially thank the MJO for this one. http://www.cpc.ncep....m_monthly.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 As Adam stated earlier in this thread. Let's keep the political discussions elsewhere and keep this thread for actual discussions regarding 94L. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 You looked at the image URL didn't you. Yep. Ernie 2006. Struggled its whole life and just never got organised and in the end, its most lasting legacy was a rain maker for the Carolina,VA,MD & VA. I have no reasoning, it just sticks out in my mind as a kind of "I've seen this movie before" deal. Ernesto 2006 may not have been consequential but for a "mere" Tropical Storm he was King of the Jungle. When dusk turned into evening here on Cape Fear, our gentle breeze rose to a brisk wind. As darkness entrenched itself moderate showers turned to relentless heavy windswept rain. Then around midnight or a bit thereafter, Ernesto's 70mph eye wall rolled over us. Howling winds raked the trees, torrents of rain fell, and "blue flashes" began appearing. Off went the power. I always laugh inside when I see someone "poo pooing" a storm because it's not big enough or strong enough; as if they have so much personal experience with the eyes of tropical cyclones sweeping through their back yards; especially those away from the immediate coast. Wilmington, North Carolina experienced the full brunt of three eye walls (Charley 75mph, Ernesto 70mph, and Ophelia 80mph) in just the last eight years. With two of them the calm centers (Charley - midday, and Ernesto - midnight) passed directly overhead; Ophelia crawled along the coast pummeling us all day long. Okay, none of those were monsters (thankfully,) but in the real world of people's back yards, these type storms (as direct hits) are far from everyday weather; they're "memorable" in every way to all who experience them. At times I sense the difference between being a "weather geek" and a "news geek" gets lost. Not every hurricane savages a city upon landfall. So what? How does this diminish the awe of actually experiencing one of these tropical beasts? Hurricanes are effectively coastal storms; just like nor'easters. Compare the difference between being on the New England coast during a high-end nor'easter with being a hundred miles inland. Night and day, right? The same goes for hurricanes. When you live on the coast -- and take a direct hit, there's no such thing as a "small hurricane." That it doesn't decimate the town is irrelevant; it's still a mighty and memorable storm for those who experience it. Sorry to ramble on so... I guess I'm just trying to remind people to be more appreciative of all hurricanes and not to dwell so constantly on the historic ones that are so few and far between. The grandeur of nature doesn't require news headlines. ERNESTO 2006: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok, start throwing the hot dogs at me, but this looks like a rapid development of a legit CDO, that looks like it's already starting to rotate. Not 100% on this, especially given the history of entanglement with SAL, however TPW imagery did indicate that 09L was starting to insulate or surround its center with high PWAT air. The middle-mid-level center and the upper-mid-level center are obviously misaligned by 2 angstroms, and inspection of satellite imagery clearly reveals an oxygen molecule and a nitrogen molecule that do NOT have a water vapor molecule between them, only 100 miles from the upper-low-level center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Members, We realize the great potential with Tropical Depression 9 and staff has been proactive in discussing what needs to be done for any expected additional traffic for the Tropical threads. We know the unique situation with this potential in that it could affect the Republican National Convention, but we ask that NO politics be discussed in this forum. None. We have already begun to see this and we ask that it stop immediately. When conditions warrant, we will go into a storm mode phase where we put in additional temporary moderators and regular staff patrols threads much more frequently. Also, during this period, normal warnings and actions resulting from not adhering to regular and storm mode rules are more severe including: suspension with no warning for 24 hours or throughout the entire storm, being limited to 5 posts per day or even banned. We want to keep these threads informative and clutter free so everyone can enjoy them. To avoid any of the aforementioned actions, simply keep on topic. That's it. You'll see a banner at the top of the board when storm mode is declared. For now, let's keep the politics out of this and discuss the potential with TD 9. If you have any questions about any of this, PM any moderator or admin. Thanks everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Looking at first few frames of vis loop, just as it looks like cloud tops are warming a bit (I have SSD loops up in IR and vis), a little tower just East of apparent LLC casting a shadow. Euro ensembles from Alan Huffman's model page suggests at least one member close to New Orleans, a week out, not going 100% on Florida. If Adam or one of the othe rpro-mets who see individual Euro ensemble members could comment, I'd be most appreciative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Looking at first few frames of vis loop, just as it looks like cloud tops are warming a bit (I have SSD loops up in IR and vis), a little tower just East of apparent LLC casting a shadow. Euro ensembles from Alan Huffman's model page suggests at least one member close to New Orleans, a week out, not going 100% on Florida. If Adam or one of the othe rpro-mets who see individual Euro ensemble members could comment, I'd be most appreciative. Still a wide spread, from the Bahamas to Houston. The mean is still in the Eastern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Anyone know how to use MS Pliant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 First light visible suggests the center is on the northern edge of the waneing convection. It's still a bit hard to conclusively prove this and there may have also been a center relocation overnight. Well know for sure with a few more satellite frames. Those that are rooting for a stronger system will want to see this stay farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 From what I can tell, the MLC and LLC aren't perfectly aligned at this time. The LLC seems to be on the northern end of the convection (near the new burst), while the strong MLC is to the WSW. One could argue there is a very slight WSW component, but I won't touch that. The disturbance depression as a whole is in pretty decent shape for now. If this can maintain convection and get that LLC to align, then this should have no trouble becoming a tropical storm today. Seems to have sufficiently modified the dry air that was eating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Phil, nice graphic showing the differences with the models at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 FWIW the euro ensembles are like the op,but then deviate and are a bit further west in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 FWIW the euro ensembles are like the op,but then deviate and are a bit further west in the Gulf. Yeah, still a lot of spread with this thing. I'm not locking anything up at this point, despite the fact I favor the Eastern Gulf. For those of you looking at the Euro ensemble mean though, realize that the lower heights in the Western Gulf after D10 are skewed by the storms that haven't made landfall yet. Better than 80% of the members have landfall by D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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