phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 What is the EURO doing at 96? It has a low sitting in front of 94L in Cuba on the 850 vort/SLP map 120 -- http://raleighwx.ame...bVortSLP120.gif See back earlier in this thread... that is the lee cyclone produced from Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At the surface the Euro takes it along 17N toward Jamaica before turning towards Cuba, the northern part looks to move over shredder land but the center stay south of Hispaniola. Looks like it wants to take it over western Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nice to see the ECMWF back to reality again... again the 500 hPa ridging is much stronger on the ECMWF in comparison to the GFS, which should keep it on a more westerly track, perhaps even slipping south of most of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 You would like the GGEM if it wasnt so terrible with hurricanes Anyway, I agree with you about the tenths of degree... could make a difference if 94L heads toward Carrib/YP or EC Yep-- your extrapolate that tenth of a degree, and five days later, it's hundreds of miles! I've been thinking for the past few days that 94L will eventually end up in the Gulf, whether via FL, Cuba, or possibly even the Yucatan Channel. The digging trough along/off the west coast of N. America this weekend into early next week teleconnects strongly to increased ridging over the eastern US. I see it as unlikely that there would be a weakness strong enough to shoot 94L northward like the GFS has been showing. Awesome-- so glad to hear this. Nice to see the ECMWF back to reality again... again the 500 hPa ridging is much stronger on the ECMWF in comparison to the GFS, which should keep it on a more westerly track, perhaps even slipping south of most of Cuba. Yummy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I've been thinking for the past few days that 94L will eventually end up in the Gulf, whether via FL, Cuba, or possibly even the Yucatan Channel. The digging trough along/off the west coast of N. America this weekend into early next week teleconnects strongly to increased ridging over the eastern US. I see it as unlikely that there would be a weakness strong enough to shoot 94L northward like the GFS has been showing. I am in agreement with your thoughts. While the GFS has preformed better than the ECMWF with regards to TCs this year, it has not with mid-level ridging, especially with this system. The ridging that builds back in suggests that 94L should stay further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Gustav! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Gustav! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Josh please empty your PM box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok. It's E of Gustav with the Cuban landfall. *edit* E that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok. It's W of Gustav with the Cuban landfall. It looks like its about to change direction again after making landfall on extreme Western Cuba at 192 216 looks like its decided to head NNW or somewhat more northerly than WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Looks just E of the heading Gustav had in 08 at hr 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 End of the run has a potent storm heading somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 End of the run has a potent storm heading somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 End of the run has a potent storm heading somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend. Its not far offshore of Tampa if we were to take this run literally -- would be a big hassle for a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Its not far offshore of Tampa if we were to take this run literally -- would be a big hassle for a lot of people It's well offshore of Tampa heading towards the general area just S of the Big Bend. If taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It's well offshore of Tampa heading towards the general area just S of the Big Bend. If taken literally. Better dust off them chasin' boots, boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I 'smell' a Gulf cane before all is said and done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 chances now at 100%, looking at satellite, if its not there now it's certainly very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Here is a little blog update with some of my thoughts. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/21/invest-94l-poised-to-become-a-tropical-cyclone-invest-95l-and-96l-on-opposite-sides-of-the-atlantic-basin/ The main story, the model disagreement over how much ridging will be over 94L in five days. The GFS has a large weakness the system moves northward in, while the ECMWF keeps it on a westerly course with a narrow ridge remaining in place. If I was a betting man, I'd place my bets on the ridge hanging tough considering the model bias with this storm so far to weaken ridging too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 As Adam stated earlier in this thread. Let's keep the political discussions elsewhere and keep this thread for actual discussions regarding 94L. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al092012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208210753 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 In the event of a FL east central coast hit/chase, you have an open invite to stop by my house and temp stage there or come by the office and get a brief/tour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 In the event of a FL east central coast hit/chase, you have an open invite to stop by my house and temp stage there or come by the office and get a brief/tour. Hey, thanks, Tony! I'll definitely take you up on that-- would be awesome to meet you in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al092012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208210753 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END I was about to pop in and say today's the day after seeing satellite. I'm curious if the dry air will cause it to go poof later today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I was about to pop in and say today's the day after seeing satellite. I'm curious if the dry air will cause it to go poof later today though. What an awful thing to say, Turtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 77.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 i'm thinking it'll delay the start, not dissipate this system. but i do like the convective trend. just would like it to fill in a bit more. and as well, that dry patch to the northeast of the convection does make me wonder how fast it'll develop before this system makes it to the leewards. the environment looks better west of the leewards than east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 77.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 That initial forecast looks pretty yummy. Nudge it a little S and... boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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