andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I knew you would post, this should be an interesting run. Some weird strengthening in the florida straits before it hits SE Florida. Not really weird considering the water temperatures in the Straits right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This is probably already a TS, and perhaps somewhat stronger than 35 kt given the rapid forward speed and how strong the low-level westerlies are from the low cloud motions on the south side. It's also lost quite a bit of latitude today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 GFS rides it up the eastern coast of FL to a landfall on the GA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 996 low in Georgia at 180 hours. Flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This is probably already a TS, and perhaps somewhat stronger than 35 kt given the rapid forward speed and how strong the low-level westerlies are from the low cloud motions on the south side. It's also lost quite a bit of latitude today. Its one of those things that the models don't seem to be catching is the south of due west movement and that could be important to track in the long run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This is probably already a TS, and perhaps somewhat stronger than 35 kt given the rapid forward speed and how strong the low-level westerlies are from the low cloud motions on the south side. It's also lost quite a bit of latitude today. Yep, agree. I've noticed it has been moving just a bit south of due west for the last 12 hours...it appears to be close to 15N, south of around 15.7N when it streaked for a few frames half a day ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 interesting to watch the models. starting to pay closer attention naples to miami isnt a huge difference, wouldnt take much of a nudge westward to change our sensible weather greatly. going to be a fun few days of watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This would be a fascinating way for Savannah to finally get a landfall. I think the fact that the OP on this run resembles it's earlier ensemble members runs lends it some merit for now. Time will tell especially once we get a fix on exact location for models to use. EDIT: The end of the run has it go inland just a bit before being brought up the coast and over Hatteras to out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Convection is rapidly increasing now. We should have a TD/TS in the next 6 hrs. Dmax shall do this storm well tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This is probably already a TS, and perhaps somewhat stronger than 35 kt given the rapid forward speed and how strong the low-level westerlies are from the low cloud motions on the south side. It's also lost quite a bit of latitude today. That's key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 People posting Irene ensemble tracks in the other threads is leaving a bad taste in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The system is stronger at H7 than at the surface Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This is probably already a TS, and perhaps somewhat stronger than 35 kt given the rapid forward speed and how strong the low-level westerlies are from the low cloud motions on the south side. It's also lost quite a bit of latitude today. Agree. It certainly looks like its mixing out that dry air at last. Still a little bit of dry air intrusion on its western flank, but the ball of higher TPW nearly covers the entire circulation envelope, so its close to no longer being a problem. Its one of those things that the models don't seem to be catching is the south of due west movement and that could be important to track in the long run In the short and medium range I agree with you. In fact, don't be surprised if we see a continued south of west component of motion until we get past the Lesser Antilles. The way the mid-level ridge is oriented currently actually favors this track if the storm becomes vertically aligned as the ridge is oriented ENE to WSW. In the longer range, the bigger players will be a weak east coast trough that might help to weaken the weakness enough for an additional northward component of motion. However, if the storm does track significantly further south in the next 24-36 hours, it might have a better shot at missing Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 94L is clearly deviating south of forecast tracks in the past 12 hours. The best track shows a slightly south of due west (~265 degree) movement in the past 6 hours with a 0z position of 15.3N 48.8W. IR loop suggests south of due west movement or consolidation has brought the center down to about 15N 49.8W at 4z. These slight southward deviations are important as almost all recent guidance had 94L at or slightly north of 16N at 12z today. Banding is increasing significantly, but we need to see if this trend continues beyond the diurnal max and can sustain itself for at least 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Anyone have the site for the renumbering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Note that the best track shows a slightly south of due west (~265 degree) movement in the past 6 hours with a 0z position of 15.3N 48.8W at 4z. IR loop suggests south of due west movement or consolidation has brought the center down to about 15N 49.8W. These slight southward deviations are important as almost all recent guidance had 94L at or slightly north of 16N at 12z today. Banding is increasing significantly, but we need to see if this trend continues beyond the diurnal max and can sustain itself for at least 12 hours. Agreed-- it is really significant. It always seems like a few tenths of a degree in latitude in the E or C Atlantic have major implications down the road in determining whether a cyclone threatens N American or fishes. And, as GaWx has pointed out in the past, E/C Atlantic cyclones with some S-of-W motion early in their lifecycles are much more likely to eventually impact N America. So today's lost of latitude is interesting, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Anyone have the site for the renumbering? 94L: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al942012.investComplete list for future use: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 94L: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al942012.invest Complete list for future use: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Big convection flare up best dmax is not till 3-6 either so should continue to blow up. I like. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/imagery/avn-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think the chance of a total miss out to sea off the U.S. east coast is under 10% at this point. The implications of a further S. track and an apparent intensification/vertical stacking trend (which would continue a slightly S of due W motion for the next 1-2 days, as Phil noted) are that 94L would be more likely to miss Shredderola to the south. Agreed-- it is really significant. It always seems like a few tenths of a degree in latitude in the E or C Atlantic have major implications down the road in determining whether a cyclone threatens N American or fishes. And, as GaWx has pointed out in the past, E/C Atlantic cyclones with some S-of-W motion early in their lifecycles are much more likely to eventually impact N America. So today's lost of latitude is interesting, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 NHC TWO at 2 am says a TD may form this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 100% A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE COULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD SOON BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE ISLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Gem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 latest loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_14km_wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 GGEM is interesting... but all we can really is note if there are any TRENDS in the model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think the chance of a total miss out to sea off the U.S. east coast is under 10% at this point. The implications of a further S. track and an apparent intensification/vertical stacking trend (which would continue a slightly S of due W motion for the next 1-2 days, as Phil noted) are that 94L would be more likely to miss Shredderola to the south. Ah, OK. Well that's even more awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ah, OK. Well that's even more awesome. You would like the GGEM if it wasnt so terrible with hurricanes Anyway, I agree with you about the tenths of degree... could make a difference if 94L heads toward Carrib/YP or EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I've been thinking for the past few days that 94L will eventually end up in the Gulf, whether via FL, Cuba, or possibly even the Yucatan Channel. The digging trough along/off the west coast of N. America this weekend into early next week teleconnects strongly to increased ridging over the eastern US. I see it as unlikely that there would be a weakness strong enough to shoot 94L northward like the GFS has been showing. Ah, OK. Well that's even more awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 What is the EURO doing at 96? It has a low sitting in front of 94L in Cuba on the 850 vort/SLP map 120 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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