Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 18Z GFS not much different, weak system skirting along southern Hispaniola, over western Cuba, up into western FL with some minor strengthening at that point. Then a weak storm back off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 18Z GFS not much different, weak system skirting along southern Hispaniola, over western Cuba, up into western FL with some minor strengthening at that point. Then a weak storm back off the Carolina coast. In that case, please just kill it now. i'd rather it be stillborn then lead a life of poverty and shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 In that case, please just kill it now. i'd rather it be stillborn then lead a life of poverty and shame. Please don't get upset but I have been receiving Hurricane Irene vibes from 94L for some time. Hard to see this going west of New Orleans overall because of the consistent -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Please don't get upset but I have been receiving Hurricane Irene vibes from 94L for some time. Hard to see this going west of New Orleans overall because of the consistent -NAO. OK, do you want me to jump off a bridge? Keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 OK, do you want me to jump off a bridge? Keep it up. Hey josh! If it is an Irene type I'm sure anyone from the SE subforum up to the SNE will welcome you to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 In that case, please just kill it now. i'd rather it be stillborn then lead a life of poverty and shame. 6 days out, a hundred miles or so either way it misses the mountains of Hispaniola. There are ways through Cuba that don't cross that much terrain. mildy sacriligeous, but I like to think of the Divine Power has having a sense of humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 OK, do you want me to jump off a bridge? Keep it up. It is what it is, hopefully there will be at least one hunk of a low-rider this year; in all it's wonder. Not another Ernesto but something more legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Hey josh! If it is an Irene type I'm sure anyone from the SE subforum up to the SNE will welcome you to chase Well, thank you. 6 days out, a hundred miles or so either way it misses the mountains of Hispaniola. There are ways through Cuba that don't cross that much terrain. Yeah, really it's only the E end of Cuba that's mega-bad. The rest is OK, provided the cyclone doesn't stupidly move lengthwise across the entire thing! It is what it is, hopefully there will be at least one hunk of a low-rider this year; in all it's wonder. Not another Ernesto but something more legit. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Up to 90% on the 8 PM TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Now at 90% A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER...ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD SOON BE REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 OK, do you want me to jump off a bridge? Keep it up. LOL. It's way more likely to be a Fay repeat than Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 6 days out, a hundred miles or so either way it misses the mountains of Hispaniola. There are ways through Cuba that don't cross that much terrain. Think it misses hispaniola to the south. Interaction with cuba might be inevitable unless it shoots the channel. A track wnw across the entire spine of cuba is what scares me the most. If it's a quick north jump it shouldn't take more than a few hours. If it gets entangled for days then its done. Whats most encouraging is the stronger ridging in the longer time period which could bring the central gulf into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 LOL. It's way more likely to be a Fay repeat than Irene I can't decide which is lamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It is supposed to take the dreaded track between Cuba and Hispanola. it has to 100 miles off that track to encounter less terrain, or somehow sneak it's way inbetween. Hazel somehow managed tosneak through that area, even that weakened a lot but somehow managed to gain most of it back over the Bahamas. So as usual, put me down for most pessimistic senario Fay redox. Edit: Also turn north like Canadian is showing unlikely, but there is still a slight weakness so it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I'm leaning towards something to the effect of this sucker. Because it was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I'm leaning towards something to the effect of this sucker. Because it was horrible. Ernesto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ernesto? You looked at the image URL didn't you. Yep. Ernie 2006. Struggled its whole life and just never got organised and in the end, its most lasting legacy was a rain maker for the Carolina,VA,MD & VA. I have no reasoning, it just sticks out in my mind as a kind of "I've seen this movie before" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 You looked at the image URL didn't you. Yep. Ernie 2006. Struggled its whole life and just never got organised and in the end, its most lasting legacy was a rain maker for the Carolina,VA,MD & VA. I have no reasoning, it just sticks out in my mind as a kind of "I've seen this movie before" deal. I actually didn't cause I am on my iPad. Just figured it was one of those crappy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I made a track map for 94L as well as marked the elevation of cuba and hispaniola to show you where 94L would survive better or worse. The red represents higher elevation that would rip apart the outflow channels for a strengthening tropical cyclone. The green markings represented an area where, if passed over, wouldn't be as bad as the red. Weakening is still likely, just not to the extend of if the potential cyclone passed over the red marked areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Classification can't be far off based on IR. Convection is increasing. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/imagery/avn0-lalo.jpg Also, new 00z GFS out to 126 hours has 94L exiting the north eastern coast of Cuba on a NW course. Lets see how it finishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 94L is looking slightly healthier than earlier today. Convection seems to be firing up near the center and to the north of the storm which will look much better in the morning if dmax preforms its wonders! I say we have TD8 at 8 am and Issac after the recon passes by the storm. I don't expect the storm to strengthen passed 50 mph all the way to the lesser antilies because of dry air and fast movement. This storm needs to get its mid and low levels stacked to strengthen much and I just don't see that happening until it reaches the E Carr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Classification can't be far off based on IR. Convection is increasing. http://www.ssd.noaa....y/avn0-lalo.jpg Also, new 00z GFS out to 126 hours has 94L exiting the north eastern coast of Cuba on a NW course. Lets see how it finishes. Much further east than the previous runs. A trough is coming down from Canada. It might boot this system OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Looks like it is heading for south FL at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 At 144 hours, its about due south of Miami. Coming closer in line with its ensemble members. Will see how Canadian trough affects it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Skirts the entire SE coast of Florida by 159-162. Looks like a hit on Miami actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Due north at 165 hours. It looks like it's strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Due north at 165 hours I knew you would post, this should be an interesting run. Some weird strengthening in the florida straits before it hits SE Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 So far it takes the best track possible in regards to land on the new GFS. Misses the shredder to the south and skips Cuba fairly fast and rides the beaches of the east coast of FL due north. Lets see how the run finishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Now it's heading west into Georgia at 174 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Phil what was the name of the storm that kind of avoided Jamaica due to this phenomenon? I think it was 2008. It avoided Jamaica as if it "knew" it was there. I may be wrong with the year so I apologize, but you may know what I mean. I have always like that idea and know that when it first was discussed there was a lot of criticism of the concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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