dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Need to keep leslie weak and west for a chance at a run up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I have a steering flow prog of the euro and gfs. Basically the 06z GFS digs the trough deep enough to our west and builds the ridge far enough to the northeast of the storm so that it clips Cape Cod. The euro is less amplified with each so it instead pulls a Bill or even a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 I have a steering flow prog of the euro and gfs. Basically the 06z GFS digs the trough deep enough to our west and builds the ridge far enough to the northeast of the storm so that it clips Cape Cod. The euro is less amplified with each so it instead pulls a Bill or even a little more east. Not much to do at this time but watch the evolution of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Need to keep leslie weak and west for a chance at a run up here Weak and west. Southwest too preferably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 Weak and west. Southwest too preferably. There's a ULL feature off the FL coast on the Euro/GFS that prevents this thing from gaining too much longitute before it makes the turn N. If that weakens or is further W, than Leslie should track further E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 How bout Leslie lol. 6z GFS is quite funny with a 60 hour stall then the sling shot to the Cape. The 500mb pattern in the 72 hours prior to landfall actually looks good for a SNE landfall - if it was shifted about 300 miles west. The question is can we build to that as time goes on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I have a steering flow prog of the euro and gfs. Basically the 06z GFS digs the trough deep enough to our west and builds the ridge far enough to the northeast of the storm so that it clips Cape Cod. The euro is less amplified with each so it instead pulls a Bill or even a little more east. 1938, 1944, Carol, Donna, Gloria, Bob in white. NHC 5 day Leslie forecast in black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Leslie meet 1938 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 The question is can we build to that as time goes on? Well the entire storm needs to be well left of the NHC 5 day track. If it gets to where the NHC has it by day 5 without some substantial loop or SW drift it's curtains for a hurricane around here. I posted about this on my blog this morning http://ryanhanrahan.com/2012/08/31/hello-leslie/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Weak and west. Southwest too preferably. Yes, The 11:00 am advisory is out and Leslie has not increased in strength so that's a good sign, Its track is somewhat similar to Isaac right now and if we can keep it south and west before the curve to the NW we may be able to get up to this lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Winter forecast for the Debbie Downers Mowvember Heatcember Tanuary Debruary Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 1938, 1944, Carol, Donna, Gloria, Bob in white. NHC 5 day Leslie forecast in black. Meh. This one's for the fishes, and only the fishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Meh. This one's for the fishes, and only the fishes. Yes I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Winter forecast for the Debbie Downers Mowvember Heatcember Tanuary Debruary Morch I can't wait for the Martin Luther Ping day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 Yes I agree I would agree as well, but it's going to tickle Kev's inner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Like i mentioned yesterday getting the timing right on these fronts and troughs to get any tropical system here is a real reach and ends up with a "thread" the needle deal, Basically why they are rare for hurricanes to make it up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Nice. Let me know if you need any snow fence to protect it. I think we still have about 200 feet of it collecting dust in the garage. You mean that orange snow fencing? That would work perfectly. Maybe I can put this eyesore in the backyard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I can't wait for the Martin Luther Ping day storm. Blizz cant either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I can't wait for the Martin Luther Ping day storm. That usually favors Kevin's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 So is the snow I could be posting pictures of snowfall from work in under a month now The mountain is actually due for a coating September snowfall... haha. At the very least usually some rime whitening the ridgeline during the first sub 0C H85 push... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Rockland/ Orange County, NY. Not only horrible traffic (F*cking yay for the 10th largest shopping mall in the country, and perpetually slow moving bridge traffic), but snow averages half of what I now get. Might as well move to the MA. Snowblower will be running my azz over for real if this move is made. You'll do better here in Orange than Rockland but still less than what you're used to as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 I can't wait for the Martin Luther Ping day storm. Yes then we can celebrate Groundfog day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 WOW, clouds are putting a damper on the warmth today. Currently 68.4°F, after a high of 73.8°F at 9:45 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Good writeup Ryan...tend to agree as I stated yesterday-storm gains too much latitude early on...oh well, maybe next year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 There is always a chance we get a freak winter snow during Debbie winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 78/58 helluva way to run a megadeath torch day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Going to be torch/severe fail here, We are overcast here with no sunny breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 already to 84 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Sultan signal for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Sultan signal for next week? Getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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