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New England Late August Discussion, banter, obs


Baroclinic Zone

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I'm going to be a weenie here for a minute... but this is the sort of stuff that scares me as we continue to move towards winter: an overall dry pattern continuing. We've certainly had some wet weather this summer, but by and large, since last October, we've been in a drier than normal streak. That makes sense though because in recent years we've had some of the wettest years on record for some New England climo locations...so that can't continue and climo strikes back with some long, boring periods.

I know this will change every single run and a 12z GFS can't be used for much, but looking at total 16 day QPF, we are in for a boring couple weeks. I hate looking at this in the winter and seeing only 1/4" QPF total over two weeks, but that's what we saw pretty much all last winter, haha.

As we go through the fall, I'd love to start to see some Nino moisture pumped up out of the southern stream into New England... I don't know why but I'm skeptical of snowfall this winter primarily due to what I think will be below normal precipitation.

16 day total (of course depends on what tropical systems do during that time period, but if we miss those, its another boring 2 weeks coming up):

South of Pike winter

2f4930cef4a2976df89ee65c42020472.jpg

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Pete and I both got down to 44 in that last cold snap. No frost yet, but it felt great. :)

Pleasant 58 out here now.

Not bad at all. I only got to 47 for the lowest (which I will take anytime).

Our kids and a couple of their friends were in our pool last night. I might be done with it now

One more warmup before the door slams shut

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South of Pike winter

2f4930cef4a2976df89ee65c42020472.jpg

LOL...I think you do well relative to average this winter.

And I guess precip over the next two weeks all depends on where the tropical system goes and how far NW it tracks.

When I was down in CT last week/end we picked up like 2-4" of rain in two nights so those precip anomalies probably looked a lot different a week ago ;)

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Hah ...that would depressing for us west of ALB if that map foreshadowed the winter storm tracks.

LOL...I think you do well relative to average this winter.

And I guess precip over the next two weeks all depends on where the tropical system goes and how far NW it tracks.

When I was down in CT last week/end we picked up like 2-4" of rain in two nights so those precip anomalies probably looked a lot different a week ago ;)

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Back up to VT on Saturday to move into my place. Pretty pumped! :)

78F here in Westbrook off a low of 63F

Nice! Will you be back to posting more regularly? It was really sweet last winter to have another NNE regular and forecaster up this way.

Much larger diurnal range up here... Low of 48F and a high of 83F so far... another 35F difference between high/low.

Got pretty warm this afternoon:

BTV...85F (300ft)

MVL...83F (700ft)

MPV...80F (1200ft)

Pretty good inversion this morning, too. I was just looking at the ski resort data and although it was upper 40s in the 700-900ft band in the valley, the low was 61F at 1,550ft base of the ski resort, 56F at 2,200ft, 54F at 3,950ft. Somewhere between 1,500ft and 800ft there was a big gradient though, from 61F to 48F.

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