CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Weak Nino is as good as any ENSO to get that. A lot of the SNE-east specials occurred in weak Ninos...Feb '69, Jan '05, Dec '76, Feb '78 (still croaked most of SNE, but the jackpot was obviously east), Dec '04, Feb '52, etc. Back to his 14" KU avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Not to purposely change the subject, but there is a massive praying mantis out by my front door. Those things are awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Great night here. 56 now...upper 40's seem possible.... Oh and it's 53/51 in the Glen now. LOL... yeah that would be tough to swallow but those storms are bound to happen. I watched on the outside for much of January 2011... and in general I'm far enough NW that I'm used to watching some whoppers pound ME/NH/SNE. Just take the October storm for example...I watched that historic event completely from the outside, picking up 1.5" of snow showers on the backside. On the flip side of things, we then get storms like March 6-7, 2011 when it rains in all those locations and we got 27" in Stowe and BTV had 25.8" (3rd largest on record). We all get our chances. I will admit though, if Lyndonville got over 30" and I only got 10", that would be a tough one to swallow... we never lose to Lyndonville, haha. They get downsloped off the Whites with easterly component and are too far away to get any orographic snows on NW flow. However, I really try to not get too down on missing storms because I know I'll get mine at some point, upslope or synoptic. I can never complain about missing storms and I realize that. I think growing up in a snow hole in the Hudson Valley helped with that... I know it can be much, much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Back to his 14" KU avg. That SNE GTG in ORH back in Jan 2011 was hilarious...when Ryan and I were going through the KU book noting how many storms where Tolland got screwed...and even BDL did better. Kevin couldn't deny it, he was just shaking his head, lol....good times. He did get his one 25" storm finally though in Jan 2011...but he went back to his 14-16" average after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Cooling off nicely this evening. Down to 58 here and low 50s in spots elsewhere. SLK is down to 45 so they should hit the 30s easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Cooling off nicely this evening. Down to 58 here and low 50s in spots elsewhere. SLK is down to 45 so they should hit the 30s easily. Your Union station is showing good cooling like it often does early in the night....it seems to level off though given its lack of being in a basin. But that station must not be on the very top of a hill because it shows that classic "side hill" temperature trend of early cooling and then leveling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
makwx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 It's a beautiful night here. Down to 57.5 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Your Union station is showing good cooling like it often does early in the night....it seems to level off though given its lack of being in a basin. But that station must not be on the very top of a hill because it shows that classic "side hill" temperature trend of early cooling and then leveling off. Yeah, it does do that. It's at the very top of one of the sap lines, about 50-75' from the top of the hill. It's located near the dot on the right...the dot on the right that belongs to the folks whom I'm using the Internet service from. It took a lot of work to get the service up the hill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Yeah, it does do that. It's at the very top of one of the sap lines, about 50-75' from the top of the hill. It's located near the dot on the right...the dot on the right that belongs to the folks whom I'm using the Internet service from. It took a lot of work to get the service up the hill! Yeah that makes sense...just below the crest which is classic for showing an early cooling as the top of the crest sheds its cold air at the surface early on in the night. I love forecasting for that area....Union, CT is really a different world. Even though Kevin will rarely admit it, its even different from his area. Those 1200 foot crests can really snow well. Part of the reason Kevin downslopes, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 That SNE GTG in ORH back in Jan 2011 was hilarious...when Ryan and I were going through the KU book noting how many storms where Tolland got screwed...and even BDL did better. Kevin couldn't deny it, he was just shaking his head, lol....good times. He did get his one 25" storm finally though in Jan 2011...but he went back to his 14-16" average after that. HVN did better in most KUs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 HVN did better in most KUs lol Yeah didn't we count like 4 or 5 storms where HVN got 20"+ and Kevin got like 14-16"? lol But it was funny reading the October storm threads earlier today and you even were talking about how great it was for the valley because of almost due northerly winds which is virtually no downslope for HFD and saying that was another reason to go balls to the wall for the valley....but for Kevin its downslope and that can easily explain why his area doesn't do as well in the monster KUs. But that is so true. BDL/HFd/HVN have a good wind direction that is plausible in certain KU setups when the wind is almost due north whereas Kevin's wind direction is only good in rainstorms...you don't get many KUs with a S or SE wind, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Yeah didn't we count like 4 or 5 storms where HVN got 20"+ and Kevin got like 14-16"? lol But it was funny reading the October storm threads earlier today and you even were talking about how great it was for the valley because of almost due northerly winds which is virtually no downslope for HFD and saying that was another reason to go balls to the wall for the valley....but for Kevin its downslope and that can easily explain why his area doesn't do as well in the monster KUs. But that is so true. BDL/HFd/HVN have a good wind direction that is plausible in certain KU setups when the wind is almost due north whereas Kevin's wind direction is only good in rainstorms...you don't get many KUs with a S or SE wind, lol. Yeah S and SE or even E is great for Kevin. Once you start getting NE or N you're screwed. There's a reason the CT River Valley does well in KUs and a reason why the area around HVN does well in general compared to areas west and east. I've also noticed that his area tends to just get screwed when it comes to finding the best deformation snows in the CCB. It may be something climo related that explosive cyclogenesis close to the coast keeps the mid level lows a bit too tucked in a smokes western areas. Whereas somewhat more progressive systems that are in the process of cutting off seem to close everything out a bit too far east and wind up smoking ORH-Ray. There could just be 2 favored climo tracks for best mid level lift/frontogenesis that bookend Tolland lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Yeah S and SE or even E is great for Kevin. Once you start getting NE or N you're screwed. There's a reason the CT River Valley does well in KUs and a reason why the area around HVN does well in general compared to areas west and east. I've also noticed that his area tends to just get screwed when it comes to finding the best deformation snows in the CCB. It may be something climo related that explosive cyclogenesis close to the coast keeps the mid level lows a bit too tucked in a smokes western areas. Whereas somewhat more progressive systems that are in the process of cutting off seem to close everything out a bit too far east and wind up smoking ORH-Ray. There could just be 2 favored climo tracks for best mid level lift/frontogenesis that bookend Tolland lol. Yeah I think this is probably legit. Kevin can do okay an a mostly easterly snow event like Dec 1992....but those are relatively rare as opposed to a ENE/NE or a N wind storm. ORH hills get upslope on anything that has an easterly component, but Kevin wont unless its almost due east....also when winds are more northerly in HVN or BDL , they may be more NE near Kevin since he is closer to the low track...the further west is where the winds go more northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Yeah I think this is probably legit. Kevin can do okay an a mostly easterly snow event like Dec 1992....but those are relatively rare as opposed to a ENE/NE or a N wind storm. ORH hills get upslope on anything that has an easterly component, but Kevin wont unless its almost due east....also when winds are more northerly in HVN or BDL , they may be more NE near Kevin since he is closer to the low track...the further west is where the winds go more northerly. With the exception of a storm like '92... the CT River Valley around here isn't so bad with downsloping. We miss out on clippers with NW flows, and storms that retrograde with easterly flow. So while the clipper fail is enough to prevent us from nickel and diming 5-10 inches per year most big storms and certainly KUs are way more dependent on mesoscale banding than shadowing. Once you get north of BDL, however, the impact appears to be much more substantial with shadowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 With the exception of a storm like '92... the CT River Valley around here isn't so bad with downsloping. We miss out on clippers with NW flows, and storms that retrograde with easterly flow. So while the clipper fail is enough to prevent us from nickel and diming 5-10 inches per year most big storms and certainly KUs are way more dependent on mesoscale banding than shadowing. Once you get north of BDL, however, the impact appears to be much more substantial with shadowing. Yes....Springfield sees it big time since the N ORH hills and Monadnocks are a lot bigger than the S ORH hills and the N CT hills. HFD does seem to get screwed a lot in smaller systems since they are usually defined by moisture advection from the Atlantic south of SNE versus the gulf or the southeast...and that advection will be more prominent further east. Also I think HFD has been a bit lucky recently...that area struggled quite a bit before Feb 2006. HVN is a different story being further south. Though we could also say that HFD maybe got unlucky too before Feb 2006...its hard to say for sure. But their top 10 snowfalls aren't as impressive as Boston or Providence. But the last few years have definitely closed the gap a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Saw a nice moose today near cog railway road nice way to cap the day, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 53F here Maybe we touch the 40s for a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Steve, probably can get out there after 10am or so. Not much kick to these showers either. Would think aftn sun is possible too down there. Scooter you and Ryan are awesome. Thanks so much, got the tourney in after a 1.5 hr rain delay, played through one last batch of heavy then the sun broke out in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Scooter you and Ryan are awesome. Thanks so much, got the tourney in after a 1.5 hr rain delay, played through one last batch of heavy then the sun broke out in the afternoon. Lol that the handle.....go back to Ginx...I cannot take you seriously as "sultan" " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 The KFS was phenomenal on this forecast from yesterday.. Ginx and The Grinch down in Shelton should be grateful. Very much so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Lol that the handle.....go back to Ginx...I cannot take you seriously as "sultan" " Had to, laughing at myself is my best medicine. I do like the fact you did take me seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I haven't yet seen a moose. We have close to 1000 of them in Adirondacks, but they tend to live in uninhabited wilderness areas. 54 pleasant degrees here now. Saw a nice moose today near cog railway road nice way to cap the day, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Had to, laughing at myself is my best medicine. I do like the fact you did take me seriously though. I consider you one of the best posters on this forum, lol. You have an amazing memory of weather events and also good knowledge of local climo. I just can't take it as seriously with "Sultan" as your handle vs Ginx...I had a hard enough time when you went from Ginx_snewx to just Ginx...but at least the beginning was the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I have been Logan11 since 1993! ...Seems crazy to change nicks at this point so I keep it. I consider you one of the best posters on this forum, lol. You have an amazing memory of weather events and also good knowledge of local climo. I just can't take it as seriously with "Sultan" as your handle vs Ginx...I had a hard enough time when you went from Ginx_snewx to just Ginx...but at least the beginning was the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I have been Logan11 since 1993! ...Seems crazy to change nicks at this point so I keep it. I remember you on WWBB. Can't remember you on ne.weather, but I'm sure you posted. But I didn't lurk as hard as I did on WWBB when I was lurking on ne.weather....then I started posting on WWBB in 2004-2005. I'm sure it would be weird for me and others if I started posting under some different handle. On WWBB I posted as "ORHWxman" which is slightly different than "ORH_wxman" but generally the same. Hard to believe I was 23 when I started posting....but that is nothing compared to guys like Ryan who was a teenager back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I consider you one of the best posters on this forum, lol. You have an amazing memory of weather events and also good knowledge of local climo. I just can't take it as seriously with "Sultan" as your handle vs Ginx...I had a hard enough time when you went from Ginx_snewx to just Ginx...but at least the beginning was the same. That's an amazing comment that makes me feel pretty damn good as you certainly are the CC Sabathia of the crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 That's an amazing comment that makes me feel pretty damn good as you certainly are the CC Sabathia of the crew. Lol...I'm not sure if that is a compliment....CC is injured and out. I try to be durable. Though CC before that injury was durable as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 39F up @ SLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 I posted a bit on ne.weather. I remember when Todd Gross first decided to start that usenet group. Hey I was only 28 at the inception of ne.weather I think... Before that I was briefly on a very old Delphi internet SNE board...pre web, all text stuff. I remember you on WWBB. Can't remember you on ne.weather, but I'm sure you posted. But I didn't lurk as hard as I did on WWBB when I was lurking on ne.weather....then I started posting on WWBB in 2004-2005. I'm sure it would be weird for me and others if I started posting under some different handle. On WWBB I posted as "ORHWxman" which is slightly different than "ORH_wxman" but generally the same. Hard to believe I was 23 when I started posting....but that is nothing compared to guys like Ryan who was a teenager back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 46 degrees out here at 3:40 AM ....colder than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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