New England Late August Discussion, banter, obs

[ORH_wxman]

Refreshing the uwyo website for the Euro lol.

Yeah the NGM was actually worth looking at... the AVN was 72 hours followed by the MRF lol.

People who claim that the models were better 10 years ago have no idea what they are talking about. Those same people would freak out if all of the sudden they were brought back to the beginning of last decade in the model world, lol.

There's so much information now compared to then. More model runs means more scrutiny too. If the Euro has a good forecast for 6 out of 7 model runs, everyone will point to the one bad run it had...when 10 years ago it might not have even had that run to begin with since it would only run 3 times in 3 days.

[CoastalWx]

People who claim that the models were better 10 years ago have no idea what they are talking about. Those same people would freak out if all of the sudden they were brought back to the beginning of last decade in the model world, lol.

There's so much information now compared to then. More model runs means more scrutiny too. If the Euro has a good forecast for 6 out of 7 model runs, everyone will point to the one bad run it had...when 10 years ago it might not have even had that run to begin with since it would only run 3 times in 3 days.

Probably thanks to weenies, because more models display more parameters nowadays. The information out there is incredible.

[CT Rain]

People who claim that the models were better 10 years ago have no idea what they are talking about. Those same people would freak out if all of the sudden they were brought back to the beginning of last decade in the model world, lol.

There's so much information now compared to then. More model runs means more scrutiny too. If the Euro has a good forecast for 6 out of 7 model runs, everyone will point to the one bad run it had...when 10 years ago it might not have even had that run to begin with since it would only run 3 times in 3 days.

Yeah the data was very sparse and you had to rely on basics a lot of the time. Although what was funny was that the 12z Euro that came out around 8pm was sort of nice so you could compare it to the 00z Eta/AVN. In general the Euro was superior so a run 12 hours old actually held up OK against the american models.

I learned a lot about interpreting soundings, water vapor loops, looking at raw UA data because you had to do things like that to figure out how the models initialized and how far off their 12 hour forecasts were. You should see the differences we'd see on a 12 hour Eta forecast comparing the 12 hour 12z forecast 500mb heights say over WAL to what was actually observed. You could learn a lot that way.

[CT Rain]

Probably thanks to weenies, because more models display more parameters nowadays. The information out there is incredible.

My favorite was hitting refresh on FOUS data (generally available about 1/2 hour before any graphics were) and using LGA and BOS 6 hour QPF forecasts to see how the storm tracked changed lol.

[CoastalWx]

My favorite was hitting refresh on FOUS data (generally available about 1/2 hour before any graphics were) and using LGA and BOS 6 hour QPF forecasts to see how the storm tracked changed lol.

I feel like some have gotten away from the basics, and the pretty sim radar products and QPF are taking over. It's why we make fun of MPM when he is progged to get 0.5" QPF but there is a 700mb back bent WF to his east.

[ORH_wxman]

I feel like some have gotten away from the basics, and the pretty sim radar products and QPF are taking over. It's why we make fun of MPM when he is progged to get 0.5" QPF but there is a 700mb back bent WF to his east.

Model qpf remains one of the least accurate model parameters too. Its always important to look at the basics. There's a reason we call them the basics...because the basics are what the rest of the model parameters are derived from.

[CT Rain]

I feel like some have gotten away from the basics, and the pretty sim radar products and QPF are taking over. It's why we make fun of MPM when he is progged to get 0.5" QPF but there is a 700mb back bent WF to his east.

What is my rule of thumb for Kevin? You're not getting a foot of snow when the 700mb low passes over Albany lol.

In general the sim radar products are useless I think. BUFKIT is great but even with that it's important to not get too wrapped up in the details... have to maintain a larger situational awareness about the developing synoptic/mesoscale features.

[ORH_wxman]

I feel like some have gotten away from the basics, and the pretty sim radar products and QPF are taking over. It's why we make fun of MPM when he is progged to get 0.5" QPF but there is a 700mb back bent WF to his east.

Lol...when I was reading through the October thread earlier, he kept giving congrats to central and eastern areas despite us saying there was probably going to be a death band out there based on the ML center track and the associated WF. Guess he didn't learn from the 1/12/11 storm, lol.

[CoastalWx]

Model qpf remains one of the least accurate model parameters too. Its always important to look at the basics. There's a reason we call them the basics...because the basics are what the rest of the model parameters are derived from.

What is my rule of thumb for Kevin? You're not getting a foot of snow when the 700mb low passes over Albany lol.

In general the sim radar products are useless I think. BUFKIT is great but even with that it's important to not get too wrapped up in the details... have to maintain a larger situational awareness about the developing synoptic/mesoscale features.

Yeah it's amazing how well some basic rules work for snow storms. The early Feb snowstorm of 2011 proved one of them, when we mentioned there was no way parts of SNE were getting 20"+ of snow.

[CoastalWx]

Lol...when I was reading through the October thread earlier, he kept giving congrats to central and eastern areas despite us saying there was probably going to be a death band out there based on the ML center track and the associated WF. Guess he didn't learn from the 1/12/11 storm, lol.

LOL, I know. I can't wait until he does it again, only to comment how even the cows invading his backyard are having problems moving in the snow.

[CoastalWx]

I think the whole 700mb and 500mb features are something that the '07-'08 Nina made me look at more closer. I bet several of us can agree on that.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah it's amazing how well some basic rules work for snow storms. The early Feb snowstorm of 2011 proved one of them, when we mentioned there was no way parts of SNE were getting 20"+ of snow.

Yeah, you don't get 20" of snow from a mid-level center passing through upstate NY. That was silly. Yet a lot of people fell into the trap of forecasting large amounts despite this because the previous storms had been so prolific and over-achieving....yet that Feb 2011 storm was drastically different synoptically than the January coastal storms.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, you don't get 20" of snow from a mid-level center passing through upstate NY. That was silly. Yet a lot of people fell into the trap of forecasting large amounts despite this because the previous storms had been so prolific and over-achieving....yet that Feb 2011 storm was drastically different synoptically than the January coastal storms.

Goes back to the QPF we were talking about, but the precip was in and out in what...8hrs? LOL.

[dendrite]

I was in Key West then but my dad said we got 3-4". Lake was way too warm at the time. The next town over (Gilford) is a few miles away from the lake and got 20", I think downtown Laconia had had 13". Alton Bay supposedly had bare ground.

I still find this fascinating.

[ORH_wxman]

I still find this fascinating.

I had no idea they got screwed on the water until now...I just assumed it was far enough removed from the SSTs that the lake wouldn't have a big impact...mabe a minor one. That is pretty amazing.

[powderfreak]

Lol...when I was reading through the October thread earlier, he kept giving congrats to central and eastern areas despite us saying there was probably going to be a death band out there based on the ML center track and the associated WF. Guess he didn't learn from the 1/12/11 storm, lol.

I thought that was funny too when I read through the pre-storm thread... he is just 100% convinced he will get completely missed or only a couple inches with 0.5" at 7:1 ratios. Little did he know he was going to get like 1.75" QPF at 15:1 ratios... like 12 hours after posting congrats to other areas he's picking up 9" in 3 hours.

Reverse psychology works very well sometimes.

[ORH_wxman]

I thought that was funny too when I read through the pre-storm thread... he is just 100% convinced he will get completely missed or only a couple inches with 0.5" at 7:1 ratios. Little did he know he was going to get like 1.75" QPF at 15:1 ratios... like 12 hours after posting congrats to other areas he's picking up 9" in 3 hours.

Reverse psychology works very well sometimes.

Scott and I were talking about how we may need to check on his well-being if another Feb '69 happened....Ray gets 3 feet, BOS 27", ORH 20", Kevin and GC 6-10" of fluff, lol.

We might have to check on you too...while snow-hole Lyndonville gets 30"+ and you merely get 10".

[powderfreak]

Yeah it's amazing how well some basic rules work for snow storms. The early Feb snowstorm of 2011 proved one of them, when we mentioned there was no way parts of SNE were getting 20"+ of snow.

Well that was after several storms in January where Blizz was starting to look like a genius... always forecasting 5-10" more than any MET and then the storms were over-performing. January 12th and 27th (or somewhere near there)... I read through those threads too this summer and it was especially obvious in the January 12th storm. Blizz and 40/70 talking about over 30" amounts in SNE while all the pros are saying they are drunk and capping accumulations at 12-24". Same thing with January 27th, most mets were very conservative because of the model chaos while Blizz is tossing 12-20" amounts... then that storm explodes and wallops SNE, especially CT.

Of course, once in a while you are going to get a storm that over-performs, and then the snow weenies can claim victory. If you forecast higher amounts than anyone else every single time, sooner or later it'll work out for you. Its the JB method of forecasting.

[CoastalWx]

Well that was after several storms in January where Blizz was starting to look like a genius... always forecasting 5-10" more than any MET and then the storms were over-performing. January 12th and 27th (or somewhere near there)... I read through those threads too this summer and it was especially obvious in the January 12th storm. Blizz and 40/70 talking about over 30" amounts in SNE while all the pros are saying they are drunk and capping accumulations at 12-24". Same thing with January 27th, most mets were very conservative because of the model chaos while Blizz is tossing 12-20" amounts... then that storm explodes and wallops SNE, especially CT.

Of course, once in a while you are going to get a storm that over-performs, and then the snow weenies can claim victory. If you forecast higher amounts than anyone else every single time, sooner or later it'll work out for you. Its the JB method of forecasting.

The jan 27th storm was insane. That was pure upper level convective snow with incredible mesoscale banding. It's tough to nail down those aspects except to highlight where the chance of amounts higher than forecast will be. Sometimes even if you think you are bullish with snow amounts...intense snow banding can still cause you to be too low.

[powderfreak]

Scott and I were talking about how we may need to check on his well-being if another Feb '69 happened....Ray gets 3 feet, BOS 27", ORH 20", Kevin and GC 6-10" of fluff, lol.

We might have to check on you too...while snow-hole Lyndonville gets 30"+ and you merely get 10".

LOL... yeah that would be tough to swallow but those storms are bound to happen. I watched on the outside for much of January 2011... and in general I'm far enough NW that I'm used to watching some whoppers pound ME/NH/SNE. Just take the October storm for example...I watched that historic event completely from the outside, picking up 1.5" of snow showers on the backside. On the flip side of things, we then get storms like March 6-7, 2011 when it rains in all those locations and we got 27" in Stowe and BTV had 25.8" (3rd largest on record). We all get our chances.

I will admit though, if Lyndonville got over 30" and I only got 10", that would be a tough one to swallow... we never lose to Lyndonville, haha. They get downsloped off the Whites with easterly component and are too far away to get any orographic snows on NW flow.

However, I really try to not get too down on missing storms because I know I'll get mine at some point, upslope or synoptic. I can never complain about missing storms and I realize that. I think growing up in a snow hole in the Hudson Valley helped with that... I know it can be much, much worse.

[powderfreak]

I know its only a matter of time before there's some big HECS that absolutely smokes BOS, PWM, Dryslot, MaineJayHawk, Winni, Dendrite, and eastern SNE, while western New England from the Litchfield County north to Jay Peak, VT is smoking cirrus. Its only a matter of time before another Miller B cuts off in just the right location. Maybe this is the year? Who knows, but there will be another Feb '69 with widespread 2-3 feet in eastern New England and partly sunny skies in western New England.

[CT Rain]

I still find this fascinating.

I had no idea they got screwed on the water until now...I just assumed it was far enough removed from the SSTs that the lake wouldn't have a big impact...mabe a minor one. That is pretty amazing.

I've seen some cool stuff with ice storms that places within a few hundred feet of a non-frozen lake (ORH ice storm was one example) had no ice on their trees while places no more than a 1/5 mile away had 1"+ accretion with trees down everywhere.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL... yeah that would be tough to swallow but those storms are bound to happen. I watched on the outside for much of January 2011... and in general I'm far enough NW that I'm used to watching some whoppers pound ME/NH/SNE. Just take the October storm for example...I watched that historic event completely from the outside, picking up 1.5" of snow showers on the backside. On the flip side of things, we then get storms like March 6-7, 2011 when it rains in all those locations and we got 27" in Stowe and BTV had 25.8" (3rd largest on record). We all get our chances.

I will admit though, if Lyndonville got over 30" and I only got 10", that would be a tough one to swallow... we never lose to Lyndonville, haha. They get downsloped off the Whites with easterly component and are too far away to get any orographic snows on NW flow.

However, I really try to not get too down on missing storms because I know I'll get mine at some point, upslope or synoptic. I can never complain about missing storms and I realize that. I think growing up in a snow hole in the Hudson Valley helped with that... I know it can be much, much worse.

Yeah we are all going to miss our storms at some point....whether we accept it or not. It happens.

3/6-7/11 was terrible here because we were still sporting like a 26" snow pack and it got destroyed in that system down to like 6-10" of crust which then got melted out in the following week from another 2 rainstorms on the 11th and 16th. But thankfully we got buried during the peak of that winter when climo helps you retain snow pack so I will never complain about 2010-2011 even if it had a bit of a bittersweet ending in March....we did get one last encore on April 1st with 7".

[CapturedNature]

Probably thanks to weenies, because more models display more parameters nowadays. The information out there is incredible.

Yeah the data was very sparse and you had to rely on basics a lot of the time. Although what was funny was that the 12z Euro that came out around 8pm was sort of nice so you could compare it to the 00z Eta/AVN. In general the Euro was superior so a run 12 hours old actually held up OK against the american models.

I learned a lot about interpreting soundings, water vapor loops, looking at raw UA data because you had to do things like that to figure out how the models initialized and how far off their 12 hour forecasts were. You should see the differences we'd see on a 12 hour Eta forecast comparing the 12 hour 12z forecast 500mb heights say over WAL to what was actually observed. You could learn a lot that way.

I feel like some have gotten away from the basics, and the pretty sim radar products and QPF are taking over. It's why we make fun of MPM when he is progged to get 0.5" QPF but there is a 700mb back bent WF to his east.

LOL reading this from someone who lived through those times in the 80s. True about the fundamentals...everyone once and a while I'm reminded of something I knew back then. There is just so much that's available in different formats that we didn't have back then. In the mid-80s all you had were the text products and you had to wait for the DiFax map to print line by line as it came across very slowly from the satellite. Forget about live updates with the exception of an SP report and a weather watcher network of friends.

[ORH_wxman]

I know its only a matter of time before there's some big HECS that absolutely smokes BOS, PWM, Dryslot, MaineJayHawk, Winni, Dendrite, and eastern SNE, while western New England from the Litchfield County north to Jay Peak, VT is smoking cirrus. Its only a matter of time before another Miller B cuts off in just the right location. Maybe this is the year? Who knows, but there will be another Feb '69 with widespread 2-3 feet in eastern New England and partly sunny skies in western New England.

Well Jan 2011 had two storms not too far off from this....1/12 and 1/27....though not quite the prolific amounts in ME and NH. 12/9/05 and Feb 2006 that winter really gave the shaft to NNE.

Those storms do happen. But they are always offset by other storms at some point.

[powderfreak]

Yeah we are all going to miss our storms at some point....whether we accept it or not. It happens.

3/6-7/11 was terrible here because we were still sporting like a 26" snow pack and it got destroyed in that system down to like 6-10" of crust which then got melted out in the following week from another 2 rainstorms on the 11th and 16th. But thankfully we got buried during the peak of that winter when climo helps you retain snow pack so I will never complain about 2010-2011 even if it had a bit of a bittersweet ending in March....we did get one last encore on April 1st with 7".

Yeah that was a bittersweet one for sure... I really wanted that one after getting missed by the big ones in January, but at the same time I really like when everyone can take part in a good storm. These boards have become so much of an addiction/hobby, that snow storms aren't as fun as they could be if 80-90% of the posters are getting rain. I would have loved for you guys to get clocked there, too, it would've made the storm discussion a lot more exciting.

I know some folks say they don't care what happens with other folks' backyards or that they wish for storms where they get smoked and no one else does, but I get enough of that with upslope... I love when the synoptic storms bring snow to a wide area so you can have some really good discussion.

[CT Rain]

Feb 69 would be one of the few winter storms I'd be really disappointed about missing.

[ORH_wxman]

Feb 69 would be one of the few winter storms I'd be really disappointed about missing.

The Kevin/Ray battle in that storm would have been epic, lol.

Ray getting 3 feet of snow while Kevin gets like 8 or 9".

[CoastalWx]

We need a few eastern SNE specials to put Kevin back in his place.

[ORH_wxman]

We need a few eastern SNE specials to put Kevin back in his place.

Weak Nino is as good as any ENSO to get that. A lot of the SNE-east specials occurred in weak Ninos...Feb '69, Jan '05, Dec '76, Feb '78 (still croaked most of SNE, but the jackpot was obviously east), Dec '04, Feb '52, etc.