powderfreak Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Yeah I feel good about no more 90F days here...I'm sure places like BDL will have a few more. BOS might be done also. The heat ridge does not look like it wants to make another run east on the euro ensembles. It may die its slow death out west with some occasional intrusions to the southeast. I was actually just reading over the October threads leading up to the storm to get back in the right mindset....where tracking models actually mattered rather than wondering if a dewpoint is going to be 66F versus 70F. Nothing beats the model tracking. Unfortunately it was really the only time last year we could seriously model track save maybe the Feb 29-Mar 1 events that took like 40 hours to accumulate 8-9" of snow. That's one of my favorite things to do in the summer... just read a few pages of storm threads every once in a while. Its so much more exciting than the heat vs. no heat stuff we deal with in the summer. Also seems like there's less of an "agenda" from everyone as we're all so busy digesting data and looking for the next model run. The threads leading up to October were great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Well once Sept comes I make the switch from lover of heat to ready for cold. Unless we can get another Labor Day derecho then I would want high dews, . We had a very humid summer so I'm happy but it's almost time to make the flip. The time of year is almost upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 That's one of my favorite things to do in the summer... just read a few pages of storm threads every once in a while. Its so much more exciting than the heat vs. no heat stuff we deal with in the summer. Also seems like there's less of an "agenda" from everyone as we're all so busy digesting data and looking for the next model run. The threads leading up to October were great... http://www.americanw...i/page__st__350 There was some awful forecasts before that storm. So many TV stations had like 3-6" the day before the storm. Its as if they didn't believe any of the guidance and just because it was October they refused to forecast big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 There was some awful forecasts before that storm. So many TV stations had like 3-6" the day before the storm. Its as if they didn't believe any of the guidance and just because it was October they refused to forecast big amounts. Here's our forecast the day before. Worked out pretty well except I needed a 12-20" contour from HFD points north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 There was some awful forecasts before that storm. So many TV stations had like 3-6" the day before the storm. Its as if they didn't believe any of the guidance and just because it was October they refused to forecast big amounts. fookin kooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Here's our forecast the day before. Worked out pretty well except I needed a 12-20" contour from HFD points north and west. How close did you come to adding one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Here's our forecast the day before. Worked out pretty well except I needed a 12-20" contour from HFD points north and west. Yeah I think you guys were the highest of any TV stations around before the storm...and it still was too low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Well once Sept comes I make the switch from lover of heat to ready for cold. Unless we can get another Labor Day derecho then I would want high dews, . We had a very humid summer so I'm happy but it's almost time to make the flip. The time of year is almost upon us. I would rather have a 100+F day than a day where dews were 74F td is so boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Our tomatoes are still green I ate a green zebra tomato for lunch and it was amazing. You hillfolk measure snow with yardsticks as us valley dwellers use golf tees. But there are some perks to the lowlands, including the best soil in the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I would rather have a 100+F day than a day where dews were 74F td is so boring You ain't gonna get a storm or rain with 100 degrees and low dews. That is boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 My house in the Poconos at 1500' is supposed to have a low of 46F. I assume similar in your neck of the woods. The projected low for Dobbs Ferry is 59F. I think that would be the first time below 60F since late June when we had several cool nights in the lower 50s. This is not too surprising, however, as the average low in mid-late July here is 66F, so it has to be a decent cold snap to drop into the 50s during the heart of summer. Considering that July was +2.3 and August has been very humid so far, that hasn't happened. From a climo standpoint, this is when we usually start to experience temperatures in the 50s. I expect some 40s in Westchester by mid-September. Yeah nice cold night coming up... back at home the forecast is for a low of 42F for 800ft in the valley in Stowe Village: Tonight: Clear. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph until midnight...becoming light and variable. Should also see some 30s in the usual cold spots of far NE VT and the valleys around the High Peaks of the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 How close did you come to adding one? Didn't even really think about it. I thought 6-12 was ballsy lol. Yeah I think you guys were the highest of any TV stations around before the storm...and it still was too low! I know. I still am in awe of that storm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Yeah nice cold night coming up... back at home the forecast is for a low of 42F for 800ft in the valley in Stowe Village: Tonight: Clear. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds around 10 mph until midnight...becoming light and variable. Should also see some 30s in the usual cold spots of far NE VT and the valleys around the High Peaks of the Adirondacks. Today's weather had me thinking about getting my bindings mounted on the new boards pretty soon. Always hard to resist the temptation to break em out too early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Didn't even really think about it. I thought 6-12 was ballsy lol. I know. I still am in awe of that storm today. I can't believe how cold that storm was. Usually in October snow (which is rare enough anyway) we are screwing around with -1C to -2C 850s and trying to squeeze an inch or two out of it....this was like -8C 850s in the commahead, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What a sicko Kevin was in that October thread...he kept rooting for power outages, lol. At least he got what he wished for in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 You ain't gonna get a storm or rain with 100 degrees and low dews. That is boring It's not worth the high dews for rotten twigs blown down and a bolt if lighting. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Should be some nice overnight lows tonight My p/c is for 51, my zfp is for 'around 50'. Since I've had mid/upper 50's repeatedly, I have to think the 50* area is in range. But then I think of the curse of the hill and that I'll end up wtih a low of 58 or something like I had this morning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Today's weather had me thinking about getting my bindings mounted on the new boards pretty soon. Always hard to resist the temptation to break em out too early in the season. Haha yeah it starts to get brutal here soon... looking at the ski trails off in the distance out my bedroom window, yearning for that first morning when you can see white up on the hill. Working there and being on the hill quite a bit helps, but all day long I find my brain wandering to thinking about snow. You start to see the ski shops advertising early season sales and stuff like that along the road...advertising tunings and sharpenings, etc. The anticipation in a ski town in the fall is hard to describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 BOX in their AFD has all day rains for all of SNE Monday..while the zone forecast has sunny and temps around 80..LOL...all day rains Where does it say that about all day? I only see "extensive cloud cover and rain". MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...RIGHT OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THAT WE USE SO MUCH IN THE WINTERTIME. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS STATED ABOVE... THE NAM DOES HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND DRY WEATHER. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THOUGH SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY AT THE SURFACE SO DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. WILL EXTEND CHANCE POPS AND KEEP ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Euro ensembles hint at more autumn-like air in early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 The rain on Monday is dependent on that low...which may be more of convective blob near the center and not too much else like we normally see this time of year. Just depends where it tracks. You don't get much WAA rains since the temp advection mechanisms are weak well away from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 What a sicko Kevin was in that October thread...he kept rooting for power outages, lol. At least he got what he wished for in the end. LOL..I was so worried about powder snow here. I so wanted it to stay wet..I still remember my post about how the dew shot up to 31-32 after it started snowing, so I knew I was good. The first 9-10 inches fell with temps at 31-32..The last 2-3 inches it fell into the 29-30 degree range..but by then damage was catostrophic..though the higher elevation here def made a difference in snow consistency to areas lower in elly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Euro ensembles hint at more autumn-like air in early September. Yeah nice looking. Maybe we get a taste of swamp again later next week, but the overall pattern isn't swampy at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Yeah nice looking. Maybe we get a taste of swamp again later next week, but the overall pattern isn't swampy at all. Meant the week after near d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Yeah the only place that sees rain on M onday is the Cape..everyone else has a nice day..not sure what's going on at BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 LOL..I was so worried about powder snow here. I so wanted it to stay wet..I still remember my post about how the dew shot up to 31-32 after it started snowing, so I knew I was good. The first 9-10 inches fell with temps at 31-32..The last 2-3 inches it fell into the 29-30 degree range..but by then damage was catostrophic..though the higher elevation here def made a difference in snow consistency to areas lower in elly Once you get about 4" of wet snow with a lot of leaves still on the trees, its over for the power outages and tree damage....anything after that is just piling on. Megan's area had a ton of tree damage and "only" about 6" of paste. The tree damage was actually worse there than up in winter hill where 17 inches fell...partly because more leaves on the trees lower down, wetter snow, and the "pruning effect" that the 2008 ice storm did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Yeah the only place that sees rain on M onday is the Cape..everyone else has a nice day..not sure what's going on at BOX Just depends where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Once you get about 4" of wet snow with a lot of leaves still on the trees, its over for the power outages and tree damage....anything after that is just piling on. Megan's area had a ton of tree damage and "only" about 6" of paste. The tree damage was actually worse there than up in winter hill where 17 inches fell...partly because more leaves on the trees lower down, wetter snow, and the "pruning effect" that the 2008 ice storm did. There were many places in CT esp in the valley and even some friends here in town who live around 500 feet..where power went out after the first inch of snow. They lost power at like 2-3:00 in the afternoon..whereas..I didn't lose mine until 10:00-11:00 that nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 There were many places in CT esp in the valley and even some friends here in town who live around 500 feet..where power went out after the first inch of snow. They lost power at like 2-3:00 in the afternoon..whereas..I didn't lose mine until 10:00-11:00 that nite Yeah if the snow is wet enough, you can lose it in just 1-2 inches with the extra leaves on the trees too. Lower down had more leaf coverage which certainly aided in the power outages. It was a double whammy for the valley...higher water content snow and more foliage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Yeah if the snow is wet enough, you can lose it in just 1-2 inches with the extra leaves on the trees too. Lower down had more leaf coverage which certainly aided in the power outages. It was a double whammy for the valley...higher water content snow and more foliage. And more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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