Record Hot Rain in California

[tacoman25]

Right. That's why the record highs are more pertinent to the conversation.

But the first graph you posted for Phoenix was average temperature. So I had good reason to point out that Phoenix's trend has been heavily influenced by UHI, and that graph was a far cry from the trend in the SW overall (much larger rise).

[tacoman25]

Looks like a fairly flat trend since the mid-1970s.

[QVectorman]

Desert southwest temps/precip. are closely tied to the AMO so it's no surprise that that there is a warming trend since the AMO is the highest it has been over the past 112 years. Especially after 1995 when it switched and the temp data seems to jump right above the 71 degree line and hasn't dropped below since.

[TerryM]

But if you kept track it wouldn't be unrecorded. As soon as you jot it down it's recorded. I have a hard time even imagining how 'unrecorded data' could be used - even an oral record, like the Viking sagas, is still a record.

But I like your idea for STUPID - maybe the Koch brothers would give us some funding.

This might prove to be the most challenging question that STUPID practitioners would face. How to juggle the non-data in such a manner as to assure that it never touched "down". I've seen naturally stupid people go to unnatural lengths to assure that data is ignored, obscured and ridiculed, but it will take a real STUPID to make the non-data viable without resorting to jotted or even oral communication. Mimes could perhaps communicate the non-data via audio taped correspondence. Mutes could give lectures from behind blackout curtained podiums & psychics could beam non-data to clairvoyant soothsayer's pledged to retain their sooth, while never saying a thing.

STUPID might find funding under the gilded wing of one or more of the major religions, all of whom seem to have taken a liking to Faith Based Science. This Faith BS has certainly made great strides in some quarters & the holder or a STUPID Faith BS BS degree might be held in high reverence in some quarters.

Stultus est sicut Stultus Facit should adorn the hallowed halls where hollowed heads contemplate the non-communication of non-data to non-educated non-entities and how to present pertinent persistent precipitation predictions to persons not presently present without resorting to recording or reporting results.

Terry

Founding Member of AAAAAA - An American Association Advocating Abolishing Alliteration

[Snow_Miser]

Qvectorman, that's a good example how this +AMO -PDO period is warmer than the last one riding

on top of the steady long term warming signal.

Certainly. Solar + Anthropogenic is mainly responsible for the long term trend upward, but the PDO and AMO are highly correlated to the Global Temperatures (especially the detrended Global Temps).

[Snow_Miser]

I didn't see the highlighted section in the paper. Despite the big population boom in Florida, the temperatures

remain largely unchanged.

Florida annual temperatures

One can infer such a conclusion from the paper, since minimum temperature trends are impacted by other things unrelated to climate change.

[aslkahuna]

Here's the whole SW summer temperatures:

Those look more like annual mean temperatures than Summer.

Steve

[aslkahuna]

So how would you explain the rise at the rural stations?

No one is saying that the Desert SW isn't warming but that Phoenix is a horrid example to use.

Steve

[Snow_Miser]

Another study in China found a significant impact from Urbanization in the temperature trends, contributing up to 44% to the temperature trends, which represents a possible aritifical and exaggerated increase in Earth's temperatures.

[Jonger]

Another study in China found a significant impact from Urbanization in the temperature trends, contributing up to 44% to the temperature trends, which represents an aritifical and exaggerated increase in Earth's temperatures.

I'm willing to wager that half of land based warming is artificial. There is still an upward trend, PDO, AMO.... Co2... Who knows. I still want to see drastic shift from fossil fuels for economic reasons and the better safe then sorry reason.

[Snow_Miser]

I'm willing to wager that half of land based warming is artificial. There is still an upward trend, PDO, AMO.... Co2... Who knows. I still want to see drastic shift from fossil fuels for economic reasons and the better safe then sorry reason.

You forgot the most important factor, the indirect solar impacts

[tacoman25]

No one is saying that the Desert SW isn't warming but that Phoenix is a horrid example to use.

Steve

Right. Not a difficult point to grasp.

[aslkahuna]

Just for S's and G's, I check the August to date obs from both D-M and TUS and found several cases of thunderstorms at both locations where thunderstorms were reported with temperatures of 100F or higher and two cases of either light rain or drizzle (both at D-M) at 100F or higher (August 5th and 11th) so such events are not so rare after all-at least in the Sonoran Desert which is rather wetter than the Mojave.

Steve

[PhillipS]

Just for S's and G's, I check the August to date obs from both D-M and TUS and found several cases of thunderstorms at both locations where thunderstorms were reported with temperatures of 100F or higher and two cases of either light rain or drizzle (both at D-M) at 100F or higher (August 5th and 11th) so such events are not so rare after all-at least in the Sonoran Desert which is rather wetter than the Mojave.

Steve

Thanks for checking that - that's good info to know. Do you know of any way to find out if hot rains are becoming more frequent? Preferably a way that doesn't requires hours of digging through records?

[aslkahuna]

Thanks for checking that - that's good info to know. Do you know of any way to find out if hot rains are becoming more frequent? Preferably a way that doesn't requires hours of digging through records?

I'm afraid not. I have a dataset of over 20years in length from my own records in Sierra Vista and as mentioned videtaped a number of occasions of full Sun rainfall but that I never made much note of the temperature at rain onset. BTW that Walmart event I mentioned earlier occurred on June 26, 1990 I believe which is the same day that TUS hit 117F. My temperature sensors remained consistent in location (and well shaded) throughout my record and I had to sensors-amercury in galss Max-Min thermometer and an electronic one which where compared to each other with both in very close agreement. However, the exposure changed during the period with the removal of two adjacent units in the Mobile Home Park which affected the ground cover and windflow resulting in higher maxes and lower mins. The mean annual temperature at my house increased by about 0.4F during the 20 years of record. More notably though the blossoming of my fruit trees came earlier by 2 weeks in 2007 than in the early 1990's.

Steve