PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 THE DEPRESSION HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION THAT IS SURROUNDEDBY VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER FAVORABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO ACHIEVE HURRICANE STATUS WOULD BE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE SURROUNDING DRY ENVIRONMENT...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND... THEREFORE...SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Nothing against the Azores, I'm hoping this becomes a hurricane so we can witness whether a system over sub-25º SST experiencing extra-tropical transition can deliver hurricane conditions. I see it as sort of an SNE analog in that sense, although if it never gets to hurricane force, that point becomes moot. Statistical guidance gets it close to hurricane force... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Ironically, the last hurricane to hit (or even threaten) the Azores was Gordon in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Just for kicks and giggles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 15/2345 UTC 30.7N 55.2W T2.0/2.0 08L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Tutt to the NE it may phase with the storm. My guess is this will look a lot like Chris 2012 or Vince from 2005. Some how these things survive in an environment where they'd weaken in the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 At least it is starting to look like something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 Just for kicks and giggles... That evolution reminds me a lot of Karl-1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The system, while not having extensive outflow, is under low shear and should remain so for the next 36-48 hours. Despite the dry air surrounding the system, the largest impact it might have is limiting the size of the disturbance. That in turn could mean faster than normal intensification rate since it typically takes less time for a small core to spin up. With that said, the latest TRMM pass is a bit provocative with hints of a developing inner core. I'm leaning towards the more agressive guidance given the factors outlined above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Sexy track forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Its getting there... nice 85GHz signature showing significant ice-scattering around the center of the circulation... Gordon's intensifying for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 Its getting there... nice 85GHz signature showing significant ice-scattering around the center of the circulation... Gordon's intensifying for sure... Very nice... I'm pretty certain this will become a hurricane. It will be interesting to see the impact it has on the Azores... it's been a while since they've experienced a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 One of the BAMS taking Gordon to Poland? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 One of the BAMS taking Gordon to Poland? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Staying at or south of 35N is a pretty big benchmark for the system intensity wise. South lies both the warmer SSTs and lower vertical wind shear. Given the structure at this point, its very likely Gordon becomes a hurricane, and probably stronger than what the NHC is currently projecting. I'm thinking more around 80-85 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Staying at or south of 35N is a pretty big benchmark for the system intensity wise. South lies both the warmer SSTs and lower vertical wind shear. Given the structure at this point, its very likely Gordon becomes a hurricane, and probably stronger than what the NHC is currently projecting. I'm thinking more around 80-85 knots. I agree. This system could already be a hurricane at this point. It has made some impressive strides today. ATCF has it at 65 mph for the 5pm, but they may go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I agree. This system could already be a hurricane at this point. It has made some impressive strides today. ATCF has it at 65 mph for the 5pm, but they may go higher. This should be an excellent case study to show the pitfalls for being conservative with intensity forecasts due to dry air. The shear over Gordon was expected to remain low for the next few days, so all the dry air did was help constrain the outer rain-bands associated with the system. In dry-air / low-shear regiemes, TCs can moisten their environment by repeated burst of convection near the center. Without shear to displace the moister column in the mid-levels, the system moistens up the environment in-situ and the system can keep on intensifying. In the end you are left with a ball of much deeper precipitable water that surrounds the system as the figure below illustrates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 Staying at or south of 35N is a pretty big benchmark for the system intensity wise. South lies both the warmer SSTs and lower vertical wind shear. Given the structure at this point, its very likely Gordon becomes a hurricane, and probably stronger than what the NHC is currently projecting. I'm thinking more around 80-85 knots. I also agree, and I'm very impressed with Gordon's structure and intensification. This certainly has a chance to become a category 2 within the next 24-36 hours before less favourable conditions arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Latest vis/IR shows the beginnings of an eye trying to clear out. Dry air or shear does not seem to be directly affecting Gordon at all, for the time being. Should be a hurricane late tonight or early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Watching the tutt. Wonder if Gordon will get shredded, or transfromed into an annular CAT 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Probably a dumb question, but does the eastward movement of the Great Gordo make any difference in strengthening, storm surge, etc. compared to the more typical westward movement of growing Atlantic hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Probably a dumb question, but does the eastward movement of the Great Gordo make any difference in strengthening, storm surge, etc. compared to the more typical westward movement of growing Atlantic hurricanes? They are partially embeded in the jet 588dm and 582dm are to to the south of the storm. If there is sinking air on the south side, it will probably increase the winds slightly. But some wind increase occurs on fast moving storms no matter what direction they're moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Just looking at GFS 250 mb winds and there is a bit of a gradient North to South around the Azores in about 3 days with a variation between as low as 30 knots to about 70 knots. If a storm moving in excess of 20 knots in the general direction of the 250 mb winds can stay under 30 or 40 knot winds, it wouldn't seem, to me, shear would be quite as destructive if it is further North and under 50 knots of effective shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Boo... I didn't expect dry air to be a factor *yet*... that said, it is possible Gordon briefly reached hurricane strength before the weakening commenced last night... there was a decent eye, if a bit shrouded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Boo... I didn't expect dry air to be a factor *yet*... that said, it is possible Gordon briefly reached hurricane strength before the weakening commenced last night... there was a decent eye, if a bit shrouded. Yea, the shear unexpectedly increased yesterday as the small upper level low to the northwest of the circulation dove to the SW. The shear is once again decreasing over the storm and banding is resuming. I think it will still become a hurricane, but the time its wasted having to reorganize due to dry air intrusion has probably cost it its chance to make cat 2 intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Looks like we're seeing one last pulse of vigorous convection (and a corresponding chance for some intensification) as the shear-vector briefly switched to WNW, which tends to be more moist than the SW quadrant of the storm. We'll probably see a switch back to WSW shear by later this evening and dry air entrainment should again become more of an issue. That said, shear is forecast to be relatively light for another 24 hrs, so there is an outside chance that a sufficiently well-organized core can develop during the day today and Gordon could pull an Epsilon 2005. Also worth noting is that while SSTs are rapidly cooling the further east Gordon travels tropopause temperatures are also decreasing, so net surface-tropopause dis-equilibrium should remain relatively steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 An Azores track like 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 BULLETINTROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012 500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 44.0W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST. GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GORDON WILL BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES BY LATE SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Funny that it's following nearly the same track as the last "Gordon". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 This is defiantly on its way towards hurricane intensity. Its got another 12-24 hours under favorable conditions... I think 80 knots is still within reach if the current organization continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.